Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Wilmington, NC

181 
WWUS52 KILM 252018
SVSILM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
418 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

SCC031-069-252100-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-180625T2100Z/
Darlington SC-Marlboro SC-
418 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR DARLINGTON AND CENTRAL MARLBORO COUNTIES...

At 417 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles northeast
of Darlington, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and powerlines.

Locations impacted include...
Bennettsville, Hartsville, Darlington, Clio, North Hartsville,
Dovesville, Mont Clare and Brownsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 8018 3450 7999 3449 7996 3449 7988
      3452 7986 3454 7983 3459 7981 3468 7961
      3456 7948 3430 7963 3431 7967 3429 7970
      3430 7973 3427 7974 3425 7978 3425 7980
      3412 8002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 267DEG 9KT 3443 7971 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

NED

571 
WWUS52 KILM 252042
SVSILM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
442 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

SCC031-069-252100-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-180625T2100Z/
Darlington SC-Marlboro SC-
442 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR DARLINGTON AND CENTRAL MARLBORO COUNTIES...

At 441 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 13 miles south of
Bennettsville, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines.

Locations impacted include...
Bennettsville, Hartsville, Darlington, Clio, North Hartsville,
Dovesville, Mont Clare and Brownsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so.

&&

LAT...LON 3436 8015 3446 8004 3449 7996 3449 7988
      3452 7986 3454 7983 3459 7981 3468 7961
      3456 7948 3430 7963 3431 7967 3429 7970
      3430 7973 3427 7974 3425 7978 3425 7980
      3412 8002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 267DEG 9KT 3443 7963 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

NED

512 
WWUS52 KILM 252056
SVSILM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
456 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

SCC031-069-252105-
/O.EXP.KILM.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-180625T2100Z/
Darlington SC-Marlboro SC-
456 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DARLINGTON AND CENTRAL
MARLBORO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3436 8015 3446 8004 3449 7996 3449 7988
      3452 7986 3454 7983 3459 7981 3468 7961
      3456 7948 3430 7963 3431 7967 3429 7970
      3430 7973 3427 7974 3425 7978 3425 7980
      3412 8002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 267DEG 9KT 3443 7959 

$$

NED

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
115 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue today. Showers and
thunderstorms will become more numerous this afternoon into
Tuesday ahead of a cold front, which will bring some relief from
the heat for midweek. Temperatures will rebound to above normal
again late in the week, with the potential for another cold
front to approach the area on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1:15 PM: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the
entire area until 10 PM tonight. We're in the process of
updating the forecast with the latest CAM guidance to account
for the expected trends into this evening.

As of 10:30 AM...A few minor changes were made to the forecast.
Temperatures were running a few degrees lower than what the
hourly forecast was showing, so we took the current observations
and blended them with the temperatures for this afternoon,
which were left unchanged. The temperatures are probably being
held down a bit by a thick layer of clouds over the coastal
counties, stretching offshore. We also made some minor
adjustments to the sky grids, mainly taking the current
observations and blending it into this afternoon with the
expected development. As for POPs, radar is relatively dry now,
so we also lowered them for the next hour or two and then have
POPs increasing along the coast associated with the sea breeze,
then increasing further as convection lights up this afternoon.

A cold front will drop down from the north this afternoon and
tonight. The changing winds will initially focus convection
along the sea breeze closer to the coast and then along the
front as it pushes south. Storms should begin to develop as we
reach convective temps early this aftn. Strong sfc heating,
steep lapse rates, CAPE up near 4000 J/kg, precip water values
up over 2 inches will all help to support decent convective
development which will be more isolated in nature initially, but
will increase in coverage heading into this evening and tonight
as a shortwave tracks across the Carolinas. This will enhance
convection with severe potential along with possibility of
excessive rainfall. SPC has our entire CWA no in a slight risk.
The main threat is damaging winds, but some small hail is also
possible.

The winds will be quite variable and fairly weak as boundary drops
slowly south over the area. Low pressure develops west of the area
as shortwave moves east and then tracks through mainly after
midnight. The variable and lighter low level winds initially should
make for some interesting boundary interactions with the NW steering
flow initially stronger pushing the storms toward the SE and the
coast. As the shortwave reaches the Coastal Carolinas, the winds
aloft will back to the W-SW maintaining a more E-NE storm direction.
Sounding data shows winds increasing out of the SW up to 45 kts
between 06z and 09z. This should transition to a more linear
development and greater potential for wind damage overnight, whereas
initially the mid level flow weakens late aftn into the eve leaving
slower moving storms and potential for flooding. WPC has local area
highlighted for slight risk of excessive rainfall and flash
flooding. Have not included any enhanced wording in forecast yet,
but may want to consider as confidence grows with event evolving.

Slightly lower overnight dewpoints and temps will will give a less
of a jumpstart for high temps today. Overall expect another hot and
humid day with temps reaching between 90 and 95 most places. The
warmest will be over Williamsburg and Georgetown counties as they
will be the last area the front drops into, with heat index values
just making it to 105, but possibly only for an hour before aftn
convection lowers them a bit. Overnight lows will be a few degrees
less behind cold front with most places between 70 and 75. The 850
temps will drop a couple of degrees through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Cold front in the area at the start of the
period will gradually sink south during Tue before stalling and
slowly dissipating on Wed. Series of weak shortwaves will move
through the flat mid-level flow, along the boundary. These impulses
will have plenty of moisture tap into, precipitable water is
forecast to approach 2.40 inches on Tue. Abundant cloud cover will
limit heating and thus CAPE, but it won't take much given the
surface boundary and the mid-level support. The last shortwave later
Tue could be particularly potent with some of the guidance showing a
well defined surface low with the shortwave. All of this points to
an active day convection wise with good agreement on precip chances
in the likely category. If the final shortwave is as strong as
depicted by the NAM/ECMWF, widespread heavy rain and localized
flooding could be an issue Tue afternoon. Cloud cover will help keep
highs in the low to mid 80s. Debris cloud and moisture lingering in
the region Tue night will keep lows above climo. Precip chances will
be decreasing overnight as slightly drier air aloft and subsidence
in the wake of the final wave spreads over the region.

Front lingers in or just south of the area Wed becoming diffuse as
heating pushes temps into the upper 80s and sea breeze becomes
better defined. Significant differences between the GFS and
NAM/ECMWF solutions for Wed. This is down to the handling of the Tue
afternoon/evening shortwave. GFS solution would produce isolated to
scattered convection with precipitable water around 1.9 inches and
MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg. NAM/ECMWF solution has stronger post wave
subsidence in the area, as surface low off the NC/SC coast starts to
become more defined. Subsidence coupled with slightly drier air
aloft leads to less convection. Will maintain inherited solution
which was middle of the road between the 2 solutions, slight chance,
and hope for better agreement in coming model runs. Lingering low
level moisture and mixing will keeps lows above climo Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...The GFS has a 500 mb shortwave moving
eastward and off the Carolina coast on Thursday. The ECMWF is
more bullish with this shortwave, however it off to the
northeast ahead of the 500 mb ridge which builds eastward over
the eastern U.S. late week into the weekend. Either scenario
would result in little direct impacts on our tangible weather.

The approach of a late-week cold front will maintain the
potential for unsettled weather into the weekend, as it will
likely stall somewhere in the area. Overall, it will be
difficult to rule out some degree of shower and thunderstorm
development in the CWA during any period of the extended
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 12Z...A lull in convection is expected into the early to
mid afternoon hours at which time sea breeze may become a little
more active. Better chances late today and tonight as potent
shortwave and a cold front move into the area. Strong convection
with possible IFR in heavier rain and very gusty winds will
accompany these features tonight. Mainly westerly winds today,
except along the coast where sea breeze will have minimal
success pushing inland. Winds are likely to shift to northwest
or even north late in the period as large area of convection
moves offshore.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR. Mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms each day with short duration flight category
restrictions possible, except for Tuesday as cold front lingers in
the area, producing increased chc of shwrs/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10:30 AM...A cold front will drop down from the north
today into tonight. Winds initially from the SW will veer to the
west as cold front approaches and will then shift around to the
N later today and should be more easterly by early Tues, but
remaining on the weaker side. Front will not make it through the
local waters before stalling and beginning to become more
diffuse heading into Tues. Overall expect winds 10 to 15 kts
with winds slightly stronger in SW flow to the south of the
front. Seas up near 3 to 4 ft at the moment will fall a bit
through the day down to 2 to 3 ft most waters.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Cold front will be stalled in the area on
Tue before washing out on Wed. Presence of the boundary early in
the period will keep winds light and variable. Later Tue night
winds gain a bit of a northerly component but speeds remain
under 10 kt. Front washing out Wed allows the sea breeze and
possibly a weak low off the NC/SC coast to play more of a role
in wind direction. East to southeast flow returns Wed with winds
becoming more southerly Wed night. Gradient is on the weak side
and speeds will remain 10 kt or less. Seas 2 to 3 ft on Tue
drop to around 2 ft Tue night into Wed. Development of east-
southeast flow Wed will build seas back to 2 to 3 ft later Wed
and Wed night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Weak low pressure along a stalled front
will lift off to the northeast with minimal direct impacts
expected across area waters at this time. Models have been
having trouble coming into agreement on this feature, so overall
confidence associated with it remains low. Another frontal
boundary will drop south into the Carolinas on Friday, but at
this time it appears it will stall inland. Potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
113 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059-
261715-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-
Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-
Coastal Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
113 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is marginal risk for excessive rainfall and localized flash
flooding potential on Tuesday.

Heat index values could reach 100 to 105 degrees Thursday through
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

AMZ250-252-254-256-261715-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
113 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
341 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

NCZ087-252015-
Robeson-
341 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ROBESON
COUNTY...

At 340 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Rex, or 7 miles east of Raeford, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
St. Pauls, Rex and Shannon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring. Avoid using metal
equipment and keep distance from objects such as irrigation systems,
poles, fences and trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 7899 3492 7896 3488 7892 3486 7893
      3485 7892 3475 7898 3484 7919 3495 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 296DEG 10KT 3495 7909

JRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
357 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

SCZ017-023-252030-
Marlboro-Darlington-
357 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF DARLINGTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN MARLBORO COUNTIES...

At 356 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Auburn, or near Darlington, moving southeast
at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and excessive cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Hartsville, Darlington, North Hartsville, Dovesville, Mechanicsville,
Mont Clare, Darlington Raceway and Auburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce
large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes suddenly, sometimes
with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly changing weather
conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe weather is observed
or a warning is issued.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 8005 3449 8002 3450 7998 3449 7996
      3449 7988 3454 7983 3456 7982 3452 7974
      3432 7963 3429 7970 3430 7973 3427 7974
      3425 7978 3425 7980 3418 7993 3442 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 319DEG 9KT 3433 7996

NED