Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Wilmington, NC

548 
WWUS52 KILM 141932
SVSILM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
332 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

NCC141-141941-
/O.CAN.KILM.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-180614T2000Z/
Pender NC-
332 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PENDER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved east over the 
coastal waters. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3415 7784 3384 7796 3389 7803 3391 7814
      3390 7837 3385 7854 3394 7865 3397 7862
      3401 7864 3406 7856 3415 7853 3417 7850
      3414 7842 3428 7776 3427 7774
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 336DEG 14KT 3426 7761 3399 7822 3391 7886 

$$

NCC019-129-142000-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-180614T2000Z/
New Hanover NC-Brunswick NC-
332 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...

At 331 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles southeast of Rich Inlet to near Supply to
Hammond, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Wilmington, Leland, Oak Island, Carolina Beach, Shallotte, Sunset
Beach, Wrightsville Beach, Kure Beach, Holden Beach, Ocean Isle
Beach, Caswell Beach, Bald Head Island, Snows Cut, South Masonboro
Island, Figure Eight Island, Yaupon Beach, North Masonboro Island,
Iredell, Boiling Spring Lakes and St. James.

This includes US Route 17 in Brunswick County between mile markers 1
and 44.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3415 7784 3384 7796 3389 7803 3391 7814
      3390 7837 3385 7854 3394 7865 3397 7862
      3401 7864 3406 7856 3415 7853 3417 7850
      3414 7842 3428 7776 3427 7774
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 336DEG 14KT 3426 7761 3399 7822 3391 7886 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HAWKINS

012 
WWUS52 KILM 141956
SVSILM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
356 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

NCC019-129-142004-
/O.EXP.KILM.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-180614T2000Z/
New Hanover NC-Brunswick NC-
356 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL NEW HANOVER AND
BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM EDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe 
limits and continue moving off the coast of southern New Hanover and 
southern Brunswick county. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to 
expire.

LAT...LON 3415 7784 3384 7796 3389 7803 3391 7814
      3390 7837 3385 7854 3394 7865 3397 7862
      3401 7864 3406 7856 3415 7853 3417 7850
      3414 7842 3428 7776 3427 7774
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 336DEG 14KT 3418 7757 3391 7818 3383 7882 

$$

HAWKINS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
954 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms today will gradually become fewer
from north to south during Friday as a cold front slowly moves
through the area. High pressure will follow, briefly bringing
some drier air. As high pressure moves offshore early next week,
the heat will build with afternoon heat index values possibly
topping 100 degrees for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM Thursday...Very small adjustments for the near term
forecast with the mid-morning update, mainly to capture trends
in temps/dew points/sky cover, otherwise previous forecast in
good shape.

Previous discussion...as of 300 AM Thursday...Looking at
another sultry day for the ILM CWA this Thursday. Convection
chances will be higher than the previous couple of days. This a
result of several convergent boundaries that will at one point
occupy the ILM CWA today through tonight. Will have an inland
weak sfc trough and the sea breeze boundary as forcing mechanisms
early on today. A weak west to east oriented cold front will
snake southward and join the party during this afternoon and
night. With flow aloft becoming more NW, this will help drive
the sfc cold front across and to just south of the ILM CWA
Friday morning. Will continue to have weak convection, mainly
showers, after the CFP. With PWs near 2 inches, heavy rain will
be the main threat. With 10 kt or less storm motions, ponding of
water across poor drainage and low lying areas will occur. With
some drier aloft moving in late this aftn and tonight, progged
DCape increases to over 1100 J/kg. This could result in 25 to 40
mph wind gusts from this convection. Will indicate decreasing
POPs starting mid to late this evening, and drop them to a low
chance or isolated POP during the Fri pre-dawn hrs. Used the
Superblend approach to max/min and hourly temperatures with some
tweaking applied.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...A cold front is expected to bisect the
Forecast Area Fri morning. This front will likely get hung up
across the area until a strong shortwave trough, rotating around
an upper low across the Canadian maritimes, dives SE across
Virginia and eastern North Carolina Fri afternoon and eve and
then moves away from NC late Fri night. A weaker mid-level
shortwave will dive SE across VA and NC Sat night as NW flow
aloft remains through the end of the period. Surface high
pressure will build from the N in the wake of the front.

Precipitable water values will be between 1.75 and near 2 inches
Fri morning, dropping to 1.25 to 1.5 later Fri afternoon through
Sat before perhaps creeping higher by Sun morning. The mid-
levels dry out smartly, from N to S during Fri and Fri night,
but the onshore flow keeps the low levels moist even on Sat
which may allow for at least shallow convection to start the
weekend. Will show highest POPs across the southern half or so
of the FA Fri, with the risk for showers lowering from N to S
later Fri and Fri eve. Deeper moisture and higher instability
warrants a greater probability Looking at another sultry day for
the ILM CWA this Thursday. Convection chances will be higher
than the previous couple of days. This a result of several
convergent boundaries that will at one point occupy the ILM CWA
today thru tonight. Will have an inland weak sfc trof and the
sea breeze boundary as forcing mechanisms early on today. A weak
west to east oriented cold front will snake southward and join
the party during this afternoon and night. With flow aloft
becoming more NW, this will help drive the sfc cold front across
and to just south of the ILM CWA Friday morning. Will continue
to have weak convection, mainly showers, after the CFP. With PWs
near 2 inches, heavy rain will be the main threat. With 10 kt
or less storm motions, ponding of water across poor drainage and
low lying areas will occur. With some drier aloft moving in
late this aftn and tonight, progged DCape increases to over 1100
J/kg. This could result in 25 to 40 mph wind gusts from this
convection. Will indicate decreasing POPs starting mid to late
this evening, and drop them to a low chance or isolated POP
during the Fri pre-dawn hrs. Used the Superblend approach to
max/min and hourly temperatures with some tweaking applied. for
thunderstorms Fri. Will keep small POPs across a good portion of
the area Sat. Seabreeze on Sat should move well inland given
prevailing low level flow so will favor inclusion of POPs above
threshold W of the seabreeze. Examination of moisture fields and
model soundings imply there could be some late night stratus
and fog Fri and Sat.

Highs will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s both days and
warmest across SW zones. Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower
70s Fri night and possibly as cool as the mid 60s across
portions of the northern tier. Lows Sat night should be a degree
or two higher as dewpoints creep higher.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Sfc high pressure migrating south will
settle well offshore almost due east of Cape Fear through early
next week. This will produce a SE to S return flow through much
of the period. At the same time, a highly amplified flow in the
mid to upper levels will build a ridge eastward leaving local
area in deep north to northwesterly flow between this ridge just
to our west and deep trough over the western Atlantic. Overall,
expect dry air and subsidence in the mid levels over the area,
but may see quite a bit of cirrus streaming down from the north
through the period and some aftn cu development. One exception
may be a couple of impulses dropping down in N-NW flow in the
mid levels. The models have been consistently showing some
convection flaring with this feature Sun or Mon. Pcp water
values down less than 1.25 inches may reach up to 1.8 inches in
any associated convection with mid to upper level impulses
possible late Sun into Mon and low level moisture on the rise in
increasing SW flow. The ridge will get suppressed to the west
and south as mid to upper trough digs down heading toward mid
week next week. Therefore expect increasing chc of shwrs Tues
into Wed.

As the ridge builds east, heights will rise and 850 temps will
increase to around 20c by Mon. This will produce temps well
into the 90s by Mon. Highs early next week may reach close to
100 inland with humidity levels rising as dewpoint temps reach
into the 70s. Should see heat indices reaching above 100 with
heat advisories possible next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 12Z...Southwest flow will be the rule today. Should have good
CAPE values by midday with thunderstorms breaking out around 18Z.
Northwest flow associated with a cold front will drive convection
southeast through the CWA. Most of the activity will be over by 22-
23Z with debris convection through the evening hours.

Extended Outlook...Widely scattered afternoon or evening
convection Friday, mainly across the SC terminals. Predominately
VFR Saturday through Monday with possible short duration
MVFR/IFR fog or low stratus each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM Thursday...Do not anticipate any SCEC or SCA
requirements this period.

Latest surface and buoy data indicate SW 5-15 kt across the
waters this morning, with wind-wave dominant seas of 2-3 ft
nearshore and 4 ft seas reported by the Frying Pan Shoals buoy.
No significant changes with the morning update. Expect SW winds
around 10 kt except 10 to 15 kt nearshore to accommodate the
sea breeze circulation this afternoon through late this evening.
As the west to east oriented cold front approaches, winds will
become more westerly around 10 kt and after it's passage, NW to
N at 10 to occasionally 15 kt. The better push south of the
local area occurs Fri morning and beyond with N-NE winds in the
10 to 15 kt range with gusts to 20 kt. Convection will become
more widespread than the previous day with 1nm or less vsby in
heavy rains and 30+ kt wind gusts from the stronger convection.
Significant seas today will run 2 to 4 ft with the 4 footers
primarily from Cape Fear northward. Tonight, a solid 2 to 3
feet. The easterly ground swell at 8 to 9 second periods, via
Wavewatch3, will dominate the sig. seas this period. Wind driven
chop from the sea breeze circulation, will occur nearshore,
within 10 nm from the coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...A cold front is expected to bisect the
waters Fri morning and should eventually move S of all the waters
Fri night as high pressure builds from the N. The area of high
pressure should trend offshore Sat/Sat night. Winds across the
northern waters will be N to NE Fri morning before becoming
easterly Fri afternoon. Winds across the southern waters will
settle on E or SE Fri afternoon. The wind direction will become
predominantly E or ESE Fri night and Sat before veering to SE
later Sat and S later Sat night. Wind speeds will be 10 to 15 kt
for much of the period. Seas will be mainly 3 ft as an easterly
swell slowly strengthens through the period.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure will build over the
local waters as it migrates farther east off of the NC Coast
Sunday through Monday. Therefore, winds will shift from S to
SW late Sun into Monday, basically remaining 10 to 15 kt with
an increase to 10 to 20 kt on Mon in increasing SW winds. Seas
will be on a downward trend through Sun with a steady rise Sun
night through Mon night in increasing SW push, ranging from 2 to
3 ft Sun and 3 to 4 ft by late Mon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH/DAG
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/DAG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
452 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

AMZ250-252-254-256-150900-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
452 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms today and tonight will have the potential to produce
30 kt wind gusts and brief 1 nm or less visibility in heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-105-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-150900-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-
Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
452 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Due to expected slow thunderstorm movements, ponding of water and
shallow flooding across poor drainage areas will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Afternoon heat index values may reach or exceed 100 degrees beginning
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ107-150900-
Inland New Hanover-
452 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Due to expected slow thunderstorm movements, ponding of water and
shallow flooding across poor drainage areas will be possible.

Minor coastal flooding will occur along the lower Cape Fear River
from Wilmington southward during the 1 to 2 hours either side of
this evening's high tide which occurs at 1109 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Minor coastal flooding possible along the lower Cape Fear River from
Wilmington southward during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, and
again during the pre-dawn Sunday hours.

Afternoon heat index values may reach 100 degrees beginning Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-150900-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-
Coastal Georgetown-
452 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

Due to expected slow thunderstorm movements, ponding of water and
shallow flooding across poor drainage areas will be possible.

High tide may approach minor coastal flooding thresholds during
this evening's high tide, which occurs around 845 PM.

Afternoon heat index values may reach 100 degrees beginning Monday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

High tide may approach minor coastal flooding thresholds during
Friday evening's high tide, which occurs around 945 PM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
127 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

NCZ105-141815-
Inland Pender NC-
127 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL PENDER COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM
EDT...

At 127 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rooks, or 12 miles west of Burgaw, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burgaw, White Stocking, Penderlea, Point Caswell, Long Creek, Murray
Town, Rooks, Montague, Malpass Corner, Ashton, Rocky Point, Currie,
Wards Corner, The Borough, St. Helena, Atkinson, Watha and Pender
Memorial Hospital.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3435 7781 3437 7782 3438 7781 3439 7782
      3436 7789 3438 7790 3438 7792 3436 7793
      3437 7796 3438 7796 3437 7799 3436 7798
      3446 7819 3447 7818 3449 7824 3452 7826
      3458 7824 3467 7816 3464 7772
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 289DEG 26KT 3456 7815

Heden

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
137 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

NCZ099-141815-
Columbus NC-
137 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL COLUMBUS COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM
EDT...

At 137 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Whiteville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Whiteville, Lake Waccamaw, Hallsboro, Redbug, Old Dock, Crusoe
Island, Southeastern Community College, Brunswick, Bolton and
Columbus Regional Healthcare System.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3426 7827 3421 7833 3421 7837 3419 7837
      3414 7842 3417 7851 3415 7854 3412 7854
      3412 7855 3410 7855 3427 7885 3445 7866
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 306DEG 23KT 3432 7868

Heden

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
154 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

NCZ096-099-105-109-141845-
Inland Brunswick NC-Columbus NC-Inland Pender NC-Bladen NC-
154 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN PENDER...SOUTHEASTERN
BLADEN...NORTH CENTRAL BRUNSWICK AND NORTHEASTERN COLUMBUS COUNTIES
UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 153 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Council, or 15 miles east of Whiteville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rowan, Northwest, Sandyfield, Carvers, Point Caswell, Rooks,
Montague, Council, Kelly, Currie, Freeman, The Borough, Delco,
Riegelwood, Bolton, East Arcadia and Sandy Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3417 7827 3438 7856 3456 7827 3441 7797
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 304DEG 21KT 3441 7844

Heden

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
235 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

NCZ099-105>110-141930-
Inland New Hanover NC-Inland Brunswick NC-Coastal Pender NC-
Columbus NC-Inland Pender NC-Coastal New Hanover NC-
Coastal Brunswick NC-
235 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 231 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Surf
City to Northwest to Nakina. Movement was southeast at 20 mph. These
storms could produce small hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will
be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wilmington, Leland, Oak Island, Carolina Beach, Burgaw, Shallotte,
Sunset Beach, Wrightsville Beach, Kure Beach, Surf City, Holden
Beach, Ocean Isle Beach, Caswell Beach, Bald Head Island, Snows Cut,
South Masonboro Island, Figure Eight Island, Yaupon Beach, Rich Inlet
and North Masonboro Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 3436 7765 3435 7766 3417 7783 3384 7796
      3389 7803 3391 7814 3390 7837 3385 7854
      3417 7892 3438 7844 3437 7833 3451 7806
      3464 7764 3448 7758 3444 7752
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 325DEG 19KT 3453 7721 3431 7815 3413 7866

HAWKINS