Beach Hazards Statement 13, NWS Wilmington, NC

128 
WHUS42 KILM 212350
CFWILM

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
750 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018


NCZ106-108-SCZ054-056-221200-
/O.EXP.KILM.BH.S.0013.000000T0000Z-180722T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KILM.BH.S.0014.180722T1200Z-180723T0000Z/
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown-
750 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a Beach
Hazards Statement, which is in effect from Sunday morning through
Sunday evening.

Strong southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts, will
develop by mid morning. These winds will produce strong south to 
north longshore currents at east-facing beaches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when threats such as rip
currents, longshore currents, and other hazards create life-
threatening conditions in the surf zone. Caution should be used when
in or near the water.

&&

$$
43

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
345 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry weather is expected today, however low pressure
developing to our west should bring showers and thunderstorms
back into the area tonight and Sunday. Next week is shaping up
to be very unsettled as low pressure remains across the
Southeast and tropical moisture spreads onshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...An active evening is finally coming to an
end, with one final burst of intense rainfall pushing off the Cape
Fear coast at this time. An additional quick 0.25 to 0.5 inches of
QPF is possible across primarily southern New Hanover County before
all the rain comes to an end. This will bring regional totals to
widespread 3-5" along the coast, with isolated totals near 8" during
the last 24 hours. The features responsible for this, namely
exceedingly high PWAT air of 2.5" and waves of low pressure along a
stalled boundary, will push NE by daybreak bringing an end to the
rainfall.

The aforementioned waves of low pressure are identifiable on radar
early this morning as subtle spins in reflectivity. There appear to
be two distinct rotational areas, one lifting into Duplin County,
and the other rotating across SE Brunswick County associated with
the last burst of rainfall. These lows are associated as well with
upper level vorticity swinging through the anomalously strong upper
trough centered across the OH VLY. Despite the activity this
morning, much drier air will advect into the region in the wake of
the low this morning as evidenced on GOES-E WV imagery, and this
combined with subsidence will produce what should be a warm and
sunny day across the area. Low stratus may take a few hours to burn
off this morning, but once that occurs the combination of increasing
sunshine and W/NW downslope flow will warm temps into the low 90s
inland, to around 90 at the coast, and this is on the warm side of
the guidance envelope.

This same heating will set the stage for a round of thunderstorms
this evening however, some of which could be strong. Confidence
remains below average even in the near term however as timing of
best forcing, uncertainty in moisture recovery, and the affects of
an MCS which will drop west of the area early today, all impact the
potential for convection. However, there is enough confidence in
convection this evening into tonight that LKLY POP has been
introduced, with the highest pure numerical values near i-95. This
convection will develop along a surface trough beneath a mid-level
impulse pushing E/SE this evening. This is accompanied by subtle mid-
level height falls associated with the SE progression of the upper
low, and will likely move into the western periphery of the CWA late
this evening. Although this will not be favorable for surface based
instability, forecast profiles suggest ample elevated MUCape to
persist, which when combined with a strengthening LLJ up to 40 kts
and 0-6km shear of 20-30 kts, produces a small but non-zero severe
threat. SPC has the far western CWA in a SLGT risk with the rest of
the CWA in a MRGL risk. The severe threat does appear quite low,
and many of the high res members show very little in terms of strong
activity tonight. However, the strong LLJ and residual instability
could support an isolated strong wind gust.

Most of the convection should erode and/or move offshore by Sunday
morning leaving a quiet but warm night with mins falling only to
around 75 at the coast, 70-72 well inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...An atypical weather pattern will
develop Sunday into Monday as vertically stacked low pressure
moves southward from the Ohio Valley into Georgia. The Bermuda
ridge will move out of its normal position too, reaching nearly
40 degrees latitude well off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The
atmosphere's response to these oddly positioned weather systems
will be to direct a deep flow of tropical moisture originating
from the Caribbean across the coastal Carolinas by Monday.

I've held precip chances on Sunday in the 40-50 percent chance
range as deep moisture may be lacking. Streamlines at 700 and
850 mb curl around the low to our west and do not advect
significant moisture into the area. Dynamics aloft will
compensate as much as possible for this lack of moisture, with a
series of impulses moving northward across the western and
central Carolinas during the day, and a 250 mb jet streak just
to our north providing ventilation aloft.

By Monday, Caribbean moisture finally arrives at the coast,
spreading deeper inland during the afternoon and evening. I've
nudged forecast PoPs up to 60-80 percent, highest along the
coast. This could herald the start of yet another period of
large rainfall totals for the area. Even at this relatively long
range my QPF in the Cape Fear area exceeds 2 inches Sunday
through Monday night, with isolated totals undoubtedly higher.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...A very unusual pattern shaping up for the extended
period and if it comes to fruition, it could be a very wet period as
well. Guidance has the closed low currently in the Upper Midwest,
dropping due south and lingering along the Gulf Coast before
basically dissipating and or drifting west by the end of next week.
This, combined with the Bermuda High to the east sets up a
persistent tropical plume which feeds directly into the area through
about Thursday. We are maintaining likely pops throughout most of
the period subsiding a little very late as the pattern finally
shifts to more of a drier westerly flow aloft. Several inches of
rain could fall across the area. Temperatures will be stable with
highs mostly in the middle to upper 80s and warm and muggy overnight
lows well into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 06Z...Wave of low pressure evident on radar moving across
western Pender County will continue to lift north overnight,
slowly bringing an end to the precip affecting ILM. Other
terminals will remain dry overnight. However, IFR cigs are
enveloping the area and expected to occur at all TAF sites and
persist into Saturday morning before lifting slowly to VFR
through the aftn as W/NW winds reaching 10-15 kts advect drier
air into the area. VFR is expected most of the rest of this
valid period with winds backing to the S/SW by evening. A
surface trough will bring a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms from west to east late. Have kept all terminals at
VFR with VCSH/VCTS for Saturday evening, but restrictions are
likely, and will be handled with later issuances.

Extended Outlook...Occasional MVFR to IFR conditions due
to scattered SHRA and TSRA through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Weak area of low pressure will move NE and
away from the coastal waters in the next few hours. Gusty S winds to
the E and in the vicinity of this low will gradually veer to the SW
at 10-15 kts before winds become more uniform from the W at 10-15
kts across all waters late this morning. This westerly wind will be
short lived as direction will shift back to the SW ahead of a
surface trough this evening and increase to 15-20 kts into Sunday
morning. Despite the short fluctuation to a westerly wind direction,
the primary wave group will remain a 5-6 sec southerly wave at 4-5
ft. This will produce seas of 3-4 ft much of the period, with some
waves reaching 5 ft early today for the NC waters, and a SCEC has
been hoisted through 10AM for AMZ250 and AMZ252.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...An unusual area of low pressure will
drop south out of the Ohio Valley on Sunday into Georgia by
Monday. The Bermuda high will shift well north of its typical
position while remaining offshore. This will create a long
south-southeasterly channel of wind from the Caribbean islands
up to the Carolina coast, leading to growing seas and
increasing potential for waves of showers and thunderstorms.
Small Craft Advisory conditions could develop as early as Monday
morning, with seas anticipated to grow as large as 7 feet
Monday afternoon and night in SSE swell.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...Along with the public part of the
forecast, the Coastal Waters Forecast looks quite unsettled as
well. With surface and mid level low pressure to the west, and
Bermuda High Pressure to the east, winds and seas should stay
elevated. Expect south to slightly southeast winds of 15-20
knots most of Tuesday. Speeds should drop back slightly on
Wednesday in a 10-15 knot range. These winds will keep
significant seas elevated in a range of 3-6 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Recent heavy rainfall in Wilmington is
pushing our 2018 rainfall into record territory. Keep in mind
our May rainfall total of 14.36 inches exceeded the next wettest
May by over five inches, and January and June totals were also
well above normal. The increasing likelihood for an El Nino
winter could help make 2018 one of the wettest years ever seen
in the Port City.

Wettest years in Wilmington's history, Jan 1 through July 20...
#1   48.11 in 2018
#2   45.47 in 1886
#3   44.13 in 1966
#4   39.72 in 1973
#5   38.40 in 1998

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW
CLIMATE...TRA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
356 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-220800-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-
Coastal Georgetown-
356 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heavy rainfall has the potential to produce flooding Monday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-
220800-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern Horry-
356 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heavy rainfall has the potential to produce flooding Monday through
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ250-252-220800-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
356 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Exercise Caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ254-256-220800-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
356 AM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

17