Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
620 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

The forecast over the next 24-36 hours is a complicated one. At
the SFC, an area of low pressure is centered over SW KS. A semi-
stationary front extends across northern KS and on into the
Midwest. Convection from last night laid out an outflow boundary
which roughly stretches west to east across southern KS. That
boundary has become less-defined, but still appears evident on
satellite imagery near Dodge City.

Thus far, convection has been focused along that boundary as well
as along the stationary front. Convective development has likely
been aided by a weak PV anomaly moving through the Central Plains.
This initial activity will likely continue E/NE, aided by that
lead PV/shortwave. Pops were adjusted for the evening hours to
account for this expectation. There is a fairly decent cap along
the I-70 corridor at this time and ongoing storms do not look all
that impressive on radar or satellite. Some upscale growth cannot
be ruled out, but this seems less likely for now. As the storms
move along the I-70 corridor, I would expected gusty winds to be
the primary threat. This area will continue to be monitored,
though, in case any stronger updrafts can develop.

Later this evening through the overnight hours, the front will
continue to slowly sag south as a much stronger s/w (now over the
NRN Plains) encroaches on the area. Increasing lift associated
with this second wave is evident along the Front Range of the
Rockies where convection initiation is underway. The models differ
on the evolution overnight, but some of the High Plains convection
may be able to work into central KS, possibly aided by increasing
moisture transport as a weak to modest LLJ develops. For now, I
kept higher pops in overnight for a large part of our CWA, but
confidence remains moderate at best.

Similar to today, convection tonight may send an outflow boundary
south into OK, while the synoptic front remains further north. The
thinking is that scattered showers/storms may be ongoing Tuesday
morning. By Tuesday afternoon, ongoing thunderstorms may
strengthen some with increasing instability/lift, especially
southeast KS. Also, there is some potential for renewed
isolated/widely scattered storms back to the west across central
KS due to lingering convergence and diabatic heating/increasing
instability. While still modest, shear/instability profiles
suggest some potential for a few strong to severe storms on
Tuesday, but the threat will be conditional on how storms evolve
through Tuesday morning. Gusty/damaging winds looks to be the
primary threat, but large hail cannot be ruled out with any
sustained updraft. NW flow aloft takes over mid-week with a
gradual decrease in thunderstorms expected, along with seasonable
temps. Of note, though, a s/w passage on Wednesday could lead to a
a greater chance of storms than currently forecast. - Martin

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

An anomalously strong ridge will build over the western US during
this period with a positively-tilted trough over the
southern/eastern US. Initially, a s/w or two may drop SE through
the Central Plains within the NW flow aloft, with some
thunderstorm potential. By later in the weekend and into next
week, though, a drier pattern is expected. The forecast is a
fairly dry one during the late-week period, but waves within the
NW flow pattern can over-perform sometimes and that will continue
to be assessed in later forecasts. - Martin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Scattered pop up showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
much of the region this afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms
are not expected to be severe but a few strong storms with very
heavy rain and 50 mph winds are possible. Additionally, LLWS
associated with this thunderstorm activity is also a threat during
the evening hours. RLS, GBD and SLN could have a few isolated
thunderstorms during the overnight hours as well as a frontal
system approaches and moves through the region. VFR conditions are
expected to return to the region tomorrow.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  90  71  90 /  30  50  20  20
Hutchinson      72  89  69  89 /  40  40  10  10
Newton          72  88  69  89 /  40  50  10  10
ElDorado        72  89  69  89 /  50  60  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   73  92  70  89 /  30  40  30  20
Russell         69  87  68  89 /  70  20  10  10
Great Bend      69  88  68  89 /  80  30  10  10
Salina          72  90  68  92 /  70  50   0   0
McPherson       71  88  69  89 /  60  50  10  10
Coffeyville     75  93  69  89 /  40  60  50  30
Chanute         74  87  67  88 /  30  60  40  20
Iola            73  84  67  88 /  40  60  40  20
Parsons-KPPF    75  91  68  89 /  40  60  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...ELM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
557 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

KSZ095-096-062330-
Wilson KS-Neosho KS-
557 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Northern Neosho County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 630 PM CDT.

* At 554 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm just west of Chanute...moving east
  at 15 mph. Another strong storm was located just south of Stark.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Chanute, Erie, Stark, Earlton and Chanute Airport.

LAT...LON 3756 9561 3773 9565 3773 9509 3756 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 256DEG 13KT 3765 9555

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

KSZ095-096-070000-
Wilson KS-Neosho KS-
628 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Northern Neosho County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 700 PM CDT.

* At 626 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Chanute...moving east at 15
  mph.

wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph have been reported with this storm
and will remain possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Chanute, Erie, Stark, Earlton and Chanute Airport.

LAT...LON 3757 9556 3773 9557 3773 9509 3756 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 259DEG 13KT 3767 9546

DARMOFAL

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1116 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

KSZ047-070445-
Barton KS-
1116 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Central Barton County in central Kansas...

* Until 1145 PM CDT.

* At 1113 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Albert, or 7 miles southeast of
  Shaffer...moving east at 30 mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Great Bend, Hoisington, Ellinwood, Albert, Olmitz, Great Bend
  Airport and Cheyenne Bottoms.

LAT...LON 3849 9903 3853 9903 3852 9856 3831 9857
      3834 9903 3847 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 273DEG 27KT 3841 9896

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1140 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

KSZ047-070515-
Barton KS-
1140 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southern Barton County in central Kansas...

* Until 1215 AM CDT.

* At 1137 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Great Bend...moving east at 35
  mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Great Bend, Ellinwood, Great Bend Airport and Cheyenne Bottoms.

LAT...LON 3849 9880 3845 9848 3826 9848 3826 9889
TIME...MOT...LOC 0439Z 281DEG 29KT 3834 9874

DARMOFAL