Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1122 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Currently have a shortwave tracking southeast across the western
Great lakes with upper ridging centered over the southern Rockies.
Messy surface pattern is in place across the area, with a
stationary front stretching from near KMCI to just north of I-70
across KS. There also appears to be a thermal heat axis punching
into sw KS that is acting like a dryline.

Current thinking is that surface based storms will get going
across southwest KS and also over sw Nebraska along their
respective boundaries. With northwest flow still in place, this
activity will try to drift southeast overnight. With building mid
level capping, confidence is low on how far south storms will
make it. For now, feel our western flank will have the better
chances this evening. With mid level baroclinic zone still in
place, also can't rule out some sct convection over our northeast
flank.

Upper low will continue to churn over the southern Great Lakes and
northern Ohio Valley on Sat with weak cold front pushing further
south. Temps will be a few degrees cooler on Sat along with
slightly lower dewpoints. The better shower and storm chances
will be pushed well east of the area.

Still decent model agreement in shortwave tracking across southern
Canada Sun into Sun night. This will push a cold front across the
northern and central Plains and will provide chance for storms
across northern KS Sun night with these conditions continuing
into Mon morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Broad upper ridge will continue to expand across the desert
southwest into the central Rockies with a cutoff circulation
remaining over the southeast CONUS. GFS and ECMWF agree on another
shortwave tracking across southern Canada Mon through Tue and will
attempt to push another cold front down into the Plains. This will
bring precip chances back, especially for northern portions of
Kansas.

Staying in nw flow will keep highs through these extended periods
close to normal, which is in the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Scattered strong to severe storms will affect parts of central
and southern Kansas overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected
to prevail thru the forecast valid period away from any storms
with an easterly component surface flow continuing across the area
through Saturday.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  93  71  93 /  30   0  10   0
Hutchinson      71  93  69  92 /  20   0  10   0
Newton          71  93  68  92 /  20   0   0   0
ElDorado        71  92  67  91 /  20   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   73  92  70  93 /  20   0   0   0
Russell         68  91  68  93 /  10   0  10   0
Great Bend      69  92  69  92 /  20   0  10   0
Salina          70  93  69  94 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       70  91  68  92 /  20   0   0   0
Coffeyville     72  93  69  92 /  30  10   0   0
Chanute         70  92  67  90 /  30  10   0   0
Iola            70  92  67  90 /  20  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    71  92  68  91 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1059 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-220400-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1059 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe storms will be possible through about 2 am across
portions of central and southern Kansas, generally along and south
of a Great Bend to McPherson to Cottonwood Falls line. The main
risks will be hail to half dollar size, wind gusts to 65 mph and
locally heavy rainfall.

The Cow Creek near Hutchinson will continue a slow rise but remain
below flood stage overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The Cow Creek near Hutchinson will continue to climb, cresting
Saturday afternoon. Cow Creek is expected to remain below flood
stage. Strong storms will be possible late Sunday night into Monday
morning for locations generally along and north of Interstate 70.

Strong storms are also possible Wednesday into Wednesday night
across mainly central Kansas.

Strong storms will be possible periodically Thursday afternoon and
evening over most of the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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