Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

SFC obs and satellite imagery this afternoon show a frontal
boundary draped from SE Nebraska to SE Colorado. In addition,
there is a weak surface circulation noted on satellite imagery
near Great Bend. Along and ahead of this feature and the front,
scattered thunderstorms have developed. Instability in this area
is modest, but shear is very weak. This is leading to
poorly organized/pulse thunderstorms. PWats are nearing 2" which
is in the 90th percentile for this time of year. Given the higher
moisture content and weak shear, wet microbursts will be possible
with the strongest cores and may be capable of 50-60 mph wind
gusts. With time, this activity may tend to build SE, impacting
portions of central KS. Pops were increase along the I-135
corridor this evening/tonight to account for that potential. Flash
flood guidance is fairly high at this time and, despite slower
storm motions and higher moisture content, significant flooding
issues are not anticipated. However, some nuisance/urban flooding
cannot be ruled out.

Thunderstorm evolution tonight will play a key role in the chance
of storms on Saturday. At this time, the thinking is that
overnight storms may tend to aid in keeping the atmosphere a bit
more capped by Saturday afternoon. However, the SFC front in the
area may still provide enough convergence for isolated
thunderstorm development by the afternoon. The risk of
thunderstorms will linger into Saturday night with the front
remaining in the area and with a weak s/w moving through.

Ridging may try to redevelop later in the weekend with a somewhat
lower chance of precip. - Martin

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

The ridge that tries to build in Sunday/Monday looks to retrograde
back over the Rockies next week, with NW flow aloft developing
over the Plains. Within this flow, a stronger s/w or two may drop
SE across the region with an increased risk of thunderstorms, some
of which could be strong to severe given modest instability and
better shear (compared to recent days). - Martin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely across most of
the region this afternoon and evening. The only terminals that
will not be affected by the shower and thunderstorm activity will
be CNU, IDP and CFV as they will be too far to the east. The
remaining terminals will have some off and on thunderstorm
activity at some point during the first 12 hours of the TAF
period. Most of this activity will occur overnight. While severe
weather is not expected, some of this activity may have gusty
winds and very heavy rain which could bring some brief IFR
conditions.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76  94  74  97 /  60  40  20  10
Hutchinson      74  93  73  96 /  60  20  20  10
Newton          75  92  73  96 /  50  30  20  10
ElDorado        75  91  73  95 /  30  30  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   75  93  74  96 /  20  30  20  10
Russell         72  93  71  96 /  50  10  10  10
Great Bend      72  93  70  96 /  50  20  10  10
Salina          75  93  73  97 /  70  20  20  10
McPherson       73  92  73  96 /  70  20  20  10
Coffeyville     75  96  75  96 /  10  30  40  30
Chanute         75  93  74  95 /  10  20  40  20
Iola            75  92  74  94 /  10  20  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    76  95  75  95 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049-051>053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...ELM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
710 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

KSZ051-052-140045-
McPherson KS-Marion KS-
710 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  East central McPherson County in central Kansas...
  West central Marion County in central Kansas...

* Until 745 PM CDT.

* At 708 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Canton...moving northeast at 10
  mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Canton and Lehigh.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

These storms may produce ponding of water on roadways. Listen for
later statements or possible flood warnings...should the risk for
minor low-land flooding become more imminent.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3828 9738 3838 9752 3850 9740 3842 9717
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 215DEG 8KT 3836 9740

LAWSON