Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
251 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

Currently, a line of storms have formed in western Kansas and they
are continuing to track towards the east. As expected, the main
threats with these storms appear to be damaging winds and isolated
large hail as they continue to move across the Plains in a linear
fashion. With plenty of MLCAPE in its path and bulk shear in
excess of 30kts, expect that the line will hold together to bring
at least some gusty winds, heavy rain, lightning, and pockets of
hail into the county warning area this morning. As the line of
storms continues to trek eastward, it is expected to slowly
decline in intensity, though some showers/storms could linger in
southern portions of the area well into the morning hours. Strong
winds are also being observed on radar out in western Kansas
behind the main line of storms, so that could be a concern as well
once the main line of storms moves through.

Another challenge for today is the temperature forecast. It really
will depend on how long the precip/clouds linger in the area for how
warm temperatures will be able to climb by this afternoon. There
continues to be a very wide range in models, with RAP13 suggesting
highs near 100 degrees in central KS while most other models top out
in the mid to upper 80s. It seems likely that with a somewhat
delayed arrival of precip into the area this morning, clouds may
linger a little longer than some models are handling. Therefore, the
previously forecast highs of upper 80s to near 90 seem like a
reasonable approach.

For the next few days, the upper ridge that has been situated over
the western CONUS will continue to remain in place as a series of
disturbances propagate outward from the main ridge across the
central Plains. This will bring multiple chances for thunderstorms
across the area, mainly in the late evening and overnight periods.
The next such chance will be tonight, where models are converging on
a solution similar to what is playing out early this morning--a
line of storms developing in western Kansas and making its way
across the state and into central and south central Kansas. Though
this is certainly a possibility, a lot will depend on how the
event for this morning goes and how the environment is modified by
this morning's storms. So, although models are hinting that
portions of the area could see some storms overnight, still
proceeding with a slight chance mention for now for the majority
of the CWA due to this uncertainty.

This weekend looks to stay mostly dry but hot across the area,
though southeast KS could see a stray storm or two late overnight
Saturday into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

Looking ahead to next week, as the upper ridge finally begins to
slide eastward across the CONUS, things should once again stay
mostly dry on Monday before several more chances for showers/storms
return by mid-week. However, confidence remains fairly low in the
extended range at this time, as the chances for storms will be very
hit-or-miss. Although not as hot as this upcoming weekend,
temperatures should hold to the upper 80s to low 90s throughout the
period as the warm pattern continues into the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

A couple of convective clusters over the high Plains late this
evening will move east-southeast across central Kansas late
tonight into Thursday morning. The highest confidence exists
for the KRSL-KGBD terminals and possibly as far east as the KSLN-
KHUT and KICT terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail thru the forecast valid period away from any storms.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  71  94  70 /  30  20  10  30
Hutchinson      90  70  94  69 /  30  20  10  20
Newton          89  70  93  69 /  30  30  10  20
ElDorado        88  70  91  69 /  30  30  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   90  70  93  70 /  30  20  10  20
Russell         89  68  94  68 /  40  30   0  10
Great Bend      90  69  94  68 /  30  20   0  10
Salina          92  70  95  70 /  40  30  10  20
McPherson       89  69  93  69 /  40  30  10  20
Coffeyville     89  70  91  70 /  10  20  20  20
Chanute         89  70  90  70 /  20  30  20  20
Iola            88  70  90  70 /  20  30  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    89  71  91  71 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...KED

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
248 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

KSZ047-070845-
Barton KS-
248 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Barton County in central Kansas...

* Until 345 AM CDT

* At 245 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Rush
  Center to 6 miles north of Dillwyn...and moving northeast at 20
  mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Great Bend, Hoisington, Pawnee Rock, Albert, Olmitz, Galatia and
  Great Bend Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3870 9903 3870 9896 3826 9850 3826 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 232DEG 16KT 3842 9933 3807 9889

HOWERTON

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