Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
309 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Tonight-Friday morning:
Convection this evening is complicated by MCV moving across
forecast area at this time. Anticipate that storms associated with
MCV will persist into the evening in southeast KS. Storms in
western KS will eventually work into central KS but weaken. Best
chance/coverage of storms by late night/early Friday will be NE of
area in the better moisture transport/baroclinic zone. However
moisture axis and weak moisture transport lingers across most of
forecast area, and suspect there will be isolated showers/
thunderstorm sprinkled across the entire at daybreak. Virtually
all models increase precipitation chances in southeast KS during
the morning which then linger into the afternoon.

Friday afternoon-Friday evening:
Highs on Friday should be suppressed by lingering precipitation
and clouds/while far western sections are warmer duration to
increased insolation. Anticipating storms will linger/expand
Friday afternoon with potential boundary across the area. Strong-
severe storms are possible, but this would require clearing and
heating to develop instability and not sure if that will happen. A
weak boundary or two is probable, but location is problematic to
focus chances for rain.

Saturday-Sunday:
Stray afternoon storms possible on Saturday in southeast KS,
otherwise dry and warmer conditions are expected as upper ridge
moves across the area. Heat indices should stay out of the triple
digits, although mid-upper 90s are probable. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Western trough shifts east and weakens this period. With mainly
weak and diffluent upper flow, will have multiple chances for
western KS storms to and drift into the area. In addition, low
level moisture will remain in place for much of this period, so
isolated storms also possible in peak heating, especially in
southeast KS. Temperatures could trend warmer with subsequent
updates, but low level moisture could also suppress maxes and
initialization grids looked reasonable for a first guess.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

A rather complicated aviation forecast, when it comes to convective
chances for the next 24 hours.  first a weak impulse over south
central KS will continue to drift slowly E-NE for the afternoon
hours, which may lead to scattered hit or miss convection across
south central and possible SE KS for the afternoon hours.  (already
seeing some scattered showers across south central KS).  think with
diurnal heating think hit or miss storms will continue, so will go
with a VCTS for most of the srn KS Taf sites for the afternoon into
the early evening hours.

Next concern will be the chances of strong/severe convection over NW
KS or SW Neb dropping E-SE into central KS for the late evening and
overnight hours. Some uncertainty on the track of the complex,
possibly seeing this complex drop SE across central KS and south
central KS tonight. Could see some gusty outflow winds and MVFR
vsbys, as this complex moves in, but will go with just VCTS for the
complex for now, until location of this complex can be better
defined.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    65  89  67  95 /  10  20  20   0
Hutchinson      66  92  65  95 /  10  20  20   0
Newton          66  88  66  95 /  10  20  20   0
ElDorado        64  86  66  92 /  10  20  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   67  85  66  93 /  10  30  20  10
Russell         65  93  63  95 /  40  20  10   0
Great Bend      64  92  63  94 /  30  20  10   0
Salina          67  94  66  97 /  20  20  10   0
McPherson       66  92  65  96 /  20  20  20   0
Coffeyville     67  83  67  91 /  40  40  30  20
Chanute         65  82  66  91 /  40  30  30  20
Iola            65  82  66  91 /  40  20  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    66  83  67  91 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...Ketcham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
429 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-252130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
429 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered storms will linger into this evening for areas roughly
east of I-35. Brief heavy rain and gusty winds are expected with the
stronger storms.

Storms that develop over western Kansas will move east into central
Kansas later tonight. There is a small chance that these will be
severe, mainly across Russell and Barton counties. The threat would
be damaging winds. Storms could continue to develop and move across
the remainder of the area through daybreak, most likely west of
I-35. Locally heavy rain and isolated wind gusts to 50 mph are
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Storms will likely linger well into Friday over mainly southern and
southeast Kansas. Isolated storms are also possible Saturday
afternoon in southeast Kansas, and Sunday evening in central
Kansas. A few strong storms are likely and an isolated severe storm
is possible. Heavy rain and gusty winds are the primary threat.

There will also be periodic chances for storms from late Monday
night through Wednesday. While widespread severe weather is not
expected, a handful of strong to severe storms remain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Howerton

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
220 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

KSZ094-242015-
Elk KS-
220 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Central Elk County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 315 PM CDT

* At 216 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Howard...moving northeast at 10
  mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Howard, Moline and Elk Falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The storms are not expected to become severe.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 9629 3753 9645 3760 9641 3760 9611
      3733 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 218DEG 7KT 3749 9635

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
250 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

KSZ053-242045-
Chase KS-
250 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Eastern Chase County in east central Kansas...

* Until 345 PM CDT

* At 244 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 9 miles southeast of Cottonwood
  Falls...moving northeast at 35 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Cottonwood Falls, Strong City, Bazaar, Matfield Green,
  Saffordville, Tallgrass Prairie and Tallgrass Prairie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The storms are not expected to become severe.

&&

LAT...LON 3809 9650 3823 9668 3852 9656 3852 9636
      3809 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 218DEG 30KT 3825 9645

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
300 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

KSZ070-242100-
Greenwood KS-
300 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 400 PM CDT

* At 255 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 11 miles northwest of Hamilton, or
  13 miles southwest of Madison...moving northeast at 35 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Madison and Thrall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The storms are not expected to become severe.

&&

LAT...LON 3784 9638 3799 9652 3808 9652 3809 9636
      3817 9636 3817 9605
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 218DEG 29KT 3805 9637

KETCHAM