Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Wichita, KS

481 
WWUS53 KICT 300758
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
258 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

KSC015-079-173-300845-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0225.000000T0000Z-180830T0845Z/
Sedgwick KS-Harvey KS-Butler KS-
258 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN SEDGWICK...SOUTHEASTERN HARVEY AND NORTHWESTERN
BUTLER COUNTIES...

At 258 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Whitewater,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Park City, Valley Center, Whitewater, Kechi, Potwin and
Elbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3778 9737 3800 9739 3809 9715 3809 9692
      3790 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 0758Z 242DEG 22KT 3796 9714 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KETCHAM

071 
WWUS53 KICT 300810
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
310 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

KSC173-300820-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0225.000000T0000Z-180830T0845Z/
Sedgwick KS-
310 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3791 9715 3791 9726 3804 9729 3809 9715
      3809 9692 3790 9691 3784 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0810Z 241DEG 20KT 3799 9706 

$$

KSC015-079-300845-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0225.000000T0000Z-180830T0845Z/
Harvey KS-Butler KS-
310 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARVEY AND NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES...

At 310 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Potwin, or near
Whitewater, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Whitewater, Potwin and Elbing. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3791 9715 3791 9726 3804 9729 3809 9715
      3809 9692 3790 9691 3784 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0810Z 241DEG 20KT 3799 9706 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KETCHAM

182 
WWUS53 KICT 300827
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
327 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

KSC079-300836-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0225.000000T0000Z-180830T0845Z/
Harvey KS-
327 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARVEY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3809 9715 3809 9692 3790 9691 3784 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0826Z 241DEG 20KT 3804 9696 

$$

KSC015-300845-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0225.000000T0000Z-180830T0845Z/
Butler KS-
327 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY...

At 326 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Burns, or 11
miles northeast of Whitewater, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Whitewater, Potwin and Elbing. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3809 9715 3809 9692 3790 9691 3784 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0826Z 241DEG 20KT 3804 9696 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

KETCHAM

598 
WWUS53 KICT 300845
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
345 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

KSC015-300855-
/O.EXP.KICT.SV.W.0225.000000T0000Z-180830T0845Z/
Butler KS-
345 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3809 9715 3809 9692 3790 9691 3784 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0845Z 241DEG 20KT 3809 9685 

$$

KETCHAM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1123 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Still expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop late tonight
and continue through the morning hours on Thursday, mainly for
locations east of a Salina to El Dorado line. A low level jet
will increase moisture transport into this area and given higher
than normal precipitable water levels of the airmass. This could
give way to heavy rainfall along with high rainfall rates.

Jakub

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Tonight-Thursday:
Main focus is return moisture and weak moisture/warm air advection
developing later tonight and lingering on Thursday. Anticipate
some elevated precipitation will break out sometime after midnight
with chances increasing towards daybreak. Various models at odds
over where this will be, with most pointing to southeast KS. This
is possible, but seems just as likely across parts of central KS
nearer to the leading edge of the moisture return, especially near
daybreak. Does appear to be a secondary maximum in isentropic
lift in far southeast KS as well just after daybreak. Model track
record with weak forcing patterns of late has been less than
stellar, so confidence is lower. Confidence however was boosted
slightly for central KS precipitation based on small line of
altocumulus castellanus at midday from northern Butler county to
north of K9K8. Model consensus is precipitation could linger into
the afternoon in southeast KS. This would obviously impact high
temperatures on Thursday.

Thursday night-Friday:
Dry period forecast as warm front lifts north of area and brisk
and gusty south winds develop on Friday. Temperatures should soar,
with temperatures well into the 90s, especially in the west.

Friday night-Saturday:
GFS is a bit more bullish on generating precipitation in the warm
sector prior to daybreak on Saturday, while ECMWF waits until
afternoon to light up the cold front in central KS. The former
seems more likely, albeit a bit generous with its coverage. The
most probable area appears to be between roughly between highway
56 and 400. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

At this point both GFS/ECMWF keep surface front north of forecast
area, although ECMWF does drop to front just north of the area
twice during the period. Given weak flow aloft/upper ridging, the
chances for convection during the daylight hours is low and
likely not work the mention due to the strong capping, but as
evidenced earlier this month in a similar pattern, the rogue
storm is possible. More likely is isolated convection around
daybreak as low level jet veers. Both are tough pin down and the
initialization grids were tweaked drier. But strongly suspect they
are still too optimistic with precipitation. High temperatures on
Tuesday-Wednesday are likely several degrees too cool as well,
being biased down by extensive clouds/precipitation in GFS.
1000-850 millibar thicknesses and 850MB mixdown would support a
continuation of highs in the 90s. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Low clouds will gradually spread westward from southeast Kansas
towards central Kansas for the overnight and early morning hours
on Thursday. Meanwhile scattered showers/storms will develop and
affect mainly eastern Kansas. The low clouds will gradually erode
from south to north across the region by mid to late Thursday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  90  74  96 /  10  20   0   0
Hutchinson      68  89  74  96 /  20  20   0   0
Newton          67  87  73  95 /  30  30  10   0
ElDorado        68  87  74  94 /  30  30   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   69  89  74  95 /  10  20   0   0
Russell         65  89  73  98 /  20  20  10  10
Great Bend      66  91  73  98 /  20  20  10   0
Salina          67  88  75  97 /  30  30  20  10
McPherson       67  87  73  95 /  20  30  10  10
Coffeyville     71  86  73  92 /  20  40   0   0
Chanute         69  84  72  91 /  50  50   0  10
Iola            68  83  72  91 /  60  50  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  86  73  91 /  30  50   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...CDJ
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
937 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-310245-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
937 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Storms are possible for late tonight with increasing towards
daybreak. The stronger storms could produce small hail and gusty
winds. In addition some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall
and affect parts of southeast Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Periodic chances for thunderstorms will continue on Thursday and
then from Friday night through Tuesday. Strong storms are possible
during these periods with nickel size hail and winds up to 55 mph.
A few severe storms cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall will also be
possible for Thursday morning across southeast Kansas.

Heat indices will be around 100 over much of the area Friday
afternoon, and Saturday afternoon near the Oklahoma border.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
144 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

KSZ067-083-300745-
Reno KS-Sedgwick KS-
144 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Reno County in south central Kansas...
  Northwestern Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...

* Until 245 AM CDT.

* At 142 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Garden Plain...moving northeast
  at 25 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Maize, Cheney, Colwich, Garden Plain, Mount Hope, Andale, Bentley,
  Cheney Lake and Cheney State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The storms are not expected to become severe.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 9780 3774 9780 3791 9768 3791 9751
      3780 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0644Z 227DEG 20KT 3773 9774

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
232 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

KSZ068-300830-
Harvey KS-
232 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Harvey County in south central Kansas...

* Until 330 AM CDT.

* At 230 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Sedgwick...moving northeast at
  25 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Newton, Hesston, Halstead, North Newton, Sedgwick, Whitewater,
  Walton and Newton Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3791 9751 3801 9764 3817 9736 3817 9716
      3791 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0732Z 241DEG 20KT 3795 9742

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
235 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

KSZ069-070-300830-
Butler KS-Greenwood KS-
235 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Northwestern Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 330 AM CDT.

* At 233 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 11 miles east of El Dorado...moving
  northeast at 25 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Rosalia, Eureka City Lake, Eureka Airport, El Dorado State Park and
  El Dorado Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 9679 3808 9651 3809 9638 3809 9636
      3785 9628 3772 9668
TIME...MOT...LOC 0735Z 241DEG 20KT 3785 9666

KETCHAM