Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Storm chances are expected to increase across the region this
afternoon and evening, persisting through tonight. One area of
focus will be across portions of southern/southeast Kansas, on the
northern fringe of a convectively-induced mid-level impulse (MCV)
moving east/southeast across Oklahoma. Another area of focus will
be across portions of central and east-central Kansas in the
vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary.

Current thinking is thunderstorm chances associated with the OK
MCV will impact southern/southeast Kansas now through about 8 PM,
with chances increasing across central/east-central Kansas toward
6-7 PM and persist into the overnight hours in vicinity of the
frontal boundary. The highest storm coverage will probably be
along/south of I-70, and along/east of I-135, amidst slightly
cooler mid-level temperatures and better upper forcing. Storm
coverage should be more on the isolated side generally west of
I-135. Ample instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and
unseasonably strong deep layer shear will support a handful of
strong to severe storms, capable of large hail and damaging winds.
Additionally, rich low-level moisture and associated above normal
precipitable water values will support pockets of very heavy rain
and flooding.

Other than a few lingering showers/storms far southeast Kansas
Friday morning, building large-scale subsidence and low-level high
pressure will support quiet weather through Saturday, with
seasonable temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Model consensus continues to support increasing chances for
widespread showers/thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday
night or early Monday, as another unseasonably strong upper low,
currently just off the Pacific Northwest Coast, moves slowly over
Mid-America. While a handful of strong to marginally severe storms
cannot be ruled out during this time frame, thinking the greatest
threat will be locally heavy rainfall given the above normal
precipitable water values, relatively poor mid-level lapse rates,
and the slow-moving nature of the upper low.

Behind this system, Monday-Wednesday look to bring a little taste
of fall, as an upper impulse diving southeast across the Midwest
allows relatively cool Canadian air to filter south into the
region. High temperatures look to be in the low 80s for many
areas, with overnight lows in the 50s-low 60s. A gradual warming
trend is expected beyond Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Primary concern this evening is ongoing TSRA. The main corridor
will be from KGBD to KCNU. Wind gusts in excess of 55kt and large
hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Very heavy rain
will cause reductions in VIS, potentially as low IFR/MVFR. The
greatest risk of IFR/MVFR conditions will be at KCNU. TSRA should
move out by Friday morning as the cool front pushes south of the
area. This will lead to VFR conditions then. - Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  90  68  90 /  30  10   0   0
Hutchinson      71  88  65  89 /  50  10   0   0
Newton          71  89  66  88 /  70  10   0   0
ElDorado        71  89  66  88 /  80  20   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   71  90  67  89 /  30  20  10   0
Russell         67  88  64  88 /  40   0   0   0
Great Bend      69  88  64  89 /  30   0   0   0
Salina          70  89  66  90 /  70   0   0   0
McPherson       71  88  65  89 /  90  10   0   0
Coffeyville     72  90  68  89 /  60  30  10  10
Chanute         72  89  67  89 /  80  30  10   0
Iola            72  88  67  89 /  80  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    72  89  68  89 /  60  30  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ099-100.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
747 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-180100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
747 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to impact portions of central
and southeast Kansas through the night. Large hail to 2 inches in
diameter and wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph will be possible with the
strongest storms. The threat will diminish from north to south late
by daybreak Friday. Where storms move over the same area, flash
flooding will be possible, especially areas in southeast Kansas
where recent heavy rain has occurred.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few showers or thunderstorms may linger over far southeast Kansas
early Friday morning.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase once
again Saturday night through Tuesday, with the highest chances
Saturday night through Sunday night. Strong to marginally severe
storms are possible, along with locally heavy rain and possible
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible through late tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
818 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

KSZ052-170145-
Marion KS-
818 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Central Marion County in central Kansas...

* Until 845 PM CDT.

* At 816 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Hillsboro...moving southeast at
  20 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hillsboro, Marion, Lehigh and Marion Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3841 9697 3818 9711 3839 9737 3840 9737
      3848 9723
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 302DEG 15KT 3837 9721

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
825 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             HILLSBORO               38.35N 97.20W
08/16/2018  E0.88 INCH       Marion             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
837 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     HAIL             3 NE WONSEVU            38.18N 96.73W
08/16/2018  E1.75 INCH       CHASE              KS   PUBLIC

&&

VJP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
842 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

KSZ049-170215-
Saline KS-
842 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northern Saline County in central Kansas...

* Until 915 PM CDT.

* At 840 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over New Cambria, or 6 miles
  northeast of Salina...moving east at 20 mph.

Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Salina, Gypsum, Smolan, New Cambria, Kipp and Salina Airport.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3896 9737 3893 9737 3893 9738 3892 9738
      3891 9737 3869 9737 3876 9785 3896 9784
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 276DEG 19KT 3886 9751

VAUGHAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
842 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

KSZ052-170215-
Marion KS-
842 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southern Marion County in central Kansas...

* Until 915 PM CDT.

* At 840 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Lehigh to 6 miles southeast of Hillsboro...and moving east at 30
  mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hillsboro, Marion, Peabody, Florence, Goessel, Lehigh and Marion
  Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3821 9737 3815 9691 3836 9689 3840 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 285DEG 24KT 3833 9736 3828 9713

LAWSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
848 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

KSZ048-050-051-170215-
Ellsworth KS-Rice KS-McPherson KS-
848 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Ellsworth County in central Kansas...
  Northeastern Rice County in central Kansas...
  Northwestern McPherson County in central Kansas...

* Until 915 PM CDT.

* At 846 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Geneseo, or 12 miles north of
  Lyons...moving southeast at 20 mph.

Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Little River, Geneseo and Windom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3850 9825 3861 9818 3853 9776 3826 9796
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 301DEG 19KT 3852 9813

VAUGHAN