Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Will likely see isolated to widely scattered hit-or-miss
slow-moving thunderstorms once again this afternoon and evening,
mainly south of a Great Bend to Salina line, as a subtle mid-level
trough and associated surface trough/wind shift settles south
amidst an unstable and weakly capped airmass. Greatest coverage
should be across southeast Kansas underneath slightly cooler mid-
level temperatures. Despite weak winds aloft, modest directional
shear may promote just enough storm organization for a few strong
storms capable of pea-dime size hail and 50 mph winds, but
widespread severe weather is unlikely. Additionally, slow storm
movement could promote small pockets of intense rainfall rates.
Activity should tend to dissipate around or shortly after sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Dry weather conditions will prevail across the region today as
subsidence overspreads the area in the wake of the upper level PV
wave. Meanwhile current early morning water vapor satellite imagery
shows an another upper level PV wave over Montana which will
continue to dive southeast and move into Kansas during the afternoon
on Friday. This could generate widely scattered showers and storms
during the afternoon/evening hours across the eastern half of Kansas.
Strong/severe storms look unlikely given weak wind shear aloft.
Dry weather looks to be in store for Saturday with Friday's upper
level wave moving south of Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Confidence is now increasing for this period as models remain
consistent with development of an upper level low pressure system
over the Texas panhandle on Sunday. They all show a very slow
northeast migration of the upper level low pressure to central
Kansas by Tuesday night. In addition, a much richer precipitable
water airmass looks to stream northward associated with this slow
moving system. A two to three day period of strong/rich moisture
transport could result in a couple episodes of heavy rainfall and
possible flooding across the region. Especially during the
Monday/Tuesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Will likely see isolated to widely scattered hit-or-miss
slow-moving thunderstorms once again this afternoon and evening,
mainly south of a GBD to SLN line. Greatest coverage should be
across southeast Kansas, including CNU. Strongest activity will
be capable of pea-dime size hail, 50 mph winds, frequent lightning
and pockets of heavy rain, but widespread severe weather is
unlikely. Activity should tend to dissipate around or shortly
after sunset.

Another chance for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
arrives once again for Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  70  94  68 /  20  20  20  10
Hutchinson      92  68  92  65 /  20  20  10   0
Newton          91  68  92  66 /  20  20  10  10
ElDorado        90  68  92  66 /  20  20  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   91  69  93  68 /  20  20  20  20
Russell         92  66  91  64 /  10  10   0   0
Great Bend      93  66  92  64 /  10  10   0   0
Salina          94  69  93  67 /  20  10  10   0
McPherson       92  67  91  65 /  20  20  10   0
Coffeyville     92  69  93  68 /  30  20  10  20
Chanute         91  68  92  67 /  30  20  10  20
Iola            91  68  92  67 /  30  20  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    91  69  93  68 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

UPDATE...ADK
SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1202 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-101715-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1202 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few isolated hit-or-miss thunderstorms will impact the region this
afternoon and evening, mainly south of a Great Bend to Salina line.
The strongest activity will be capable of pea to dime size hail, 50
mph winds and torrential downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible Friday
afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas. Severe weather is not
expected with this activity.

A slow moving weather system looks to bring periodic bouts of
showers and thunderstorms to the region from Sunday night through
Tuesday night. Severe weather is not expected, however several
rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall could cause pockets of
minor flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
150 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

KSZ096-091915-
Neosho KS-
150 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Neosho County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 215 PM CDT.

* At 147 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Galesburg, or 6 miles southwest
  of Erie...moving northwest at 5 mph.

Small hail, torrential rainfall, and wind gusts up to 50 mph are
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Erie, Thayer, Galesburg and Lake Parsons.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 9530 3738 9532 3740 9552 3766 9542
      3754 9520
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 116DEG 3KT 3750 9533

KLEINSASSER