Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
609 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Water vapor imagery shows upper low spinning over western IA with
a surface low over extreme northeast Nebraska. Weak cold front
extends from southern MO into the TX Panhandle.

Short range guidance has remained consistent developing some
convection between 9z and 12z over west-central KS and tracking it
southeast this morning. This would be in response to strong warm
advection along a fairly tight mid level baroclinc zone. This
activity looks to have around 1000-1500 J/KG of CAPE to work with
around 40-50kts of effective shear. So not out of the question to
get a few hail stones out of anything that develops.

While confidence is high that storms will develop late this
afternoon into the early evening along a weak cold front,
confidence is much lower on where exactly storms will develop.
This may be dependent on how far east morning convection makes it.
Was initially thinking northeast KS would be the most likely
location for initial development. However, if morning convection
makes it into eastern KS, it may allow storms to develop further
south, possibly over southeast KS. Given CAPE values in excess of
3,000J/G and deep layer shear in the 35 to 45 kt range, which is
the result of great turning in the 850-500mb layer, severe storms
look likely. For now will keep the highest severe threat over
southeast KS, possibly into the Flint Hills.

Models still agree on quickly building an upper ridge for Wed
over the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. Still
looking at 850mb temps in the 25-30C range over the western half
of the forecast area. This should result in highs around 100 for
much of the area Wed with dew points in the 70 to 75 range with
these values possible higher over southeast KS if they get more
rain today. Will run with a heat advisory for Wed afternoon, with
areas along and east of I-135 expected to see heat index values
around 105. Upper ridge will push slightly east Thu to encompass
most of the southern Plains. This will keep highs around 100 but
dewpoints should mix out a bit more than Wed with gusty southwest
winds aiding in this process.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Another hot day will be on tap for Fri with both ECMWF and GFS
still agreeing on swinging a shortwave trough from the Pacific NW
into the northern Rockies. As the trough progresses east, it will
try and push a cold front down into central KS for Sat night into
Sun. After today, this front will become our next focus for storm
development. There is also some agreement between the medium range
models in tracking some weak energy out of Mex and across the
southern high Plains for later in the weekend, which may play a
role in how widespread showers and storms are Sat night into Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Main aviation challenge will be thunderstorm chances today through
this evening.

Zone of strong mid-level isentropic ascent under the southwest
periphery of a departing upper low should promote isolated to
widely scattered showers/storms this morning. There is low
confidence on exactly where this activity will form and track,
although latest data suggests central and east-central KS have the
highest probabilities. Another chance of isolated to widely
scattered storms arrives late this afternoon and evening, as a
subtle frontal boundary approaches slowly from the north. Thinking
generally the southeast quarter of Kansas has the highest
potential for these storms, some of which may be severe with large
hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  73 101  75 /  20  20   0   0
Hutchinson      92  72 101  75 /  30  10   0   0
Newton          91  72  99  75 /  20  20   0   0
ElDorado        91  72  97  74 /  30  30   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   92  73 100  75 /  20  20   0   0
Russell         93  68 101  74 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      93  68 101  74 /  30   0   0   0
Salina          94  70 102  76 /  20  10   0   0
McPherson       91  71 101  75 /  20  10   0   0
Coffeyville     92  73  96  75 /  20  40   0   0
Chanute         91  72  95  75 /  40  60   0   0
Iola            90  71  95  75 /  50  60   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    92  73  96  76 /  30  50   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ049-051>053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
751 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-271300-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
751 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered storms are possible this morning for locations generally
west of the Flint Hills. The strongest activity will be capable of
half-dollar size hail, especially west of I-135.

Additional storms are expected to develop this afternoon into the
early evening hours over eastern Kansas. This activity is then
expected to track south this evening, affecting mainly southeast
Kansas into the Flint Hills. Golf ball size hail, 60 mph winds and
heavy rain will be possible with the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Heat indices are expected to climb to around 105 degrees Wednesday
afternoon and early evening. See latest heat advisory for
additional details. For Thursday through Saturday, afternoon heat
indices will be around 100 degrees.

Storms will return to the forecast for Saturday night through
Monday as a cold front approaches the area. Strong storms look
possible with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation maybe needed this afternoon and evening across
the Flint Hills into southeast Kansas.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
816 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

KSZ047-261345-
Barton KS-
816 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Barton County in central Kansas...

* Until 845 AM CDT.

* At 813 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall near Pawnee Rock,
  or 7 miles north of Larned...moving east at 15 mph.

* Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will
  be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Great Bend, Hoisington, Ellinwood, Claflin, Pawnee Rock, Albert,
  Olmitz, Galatia, Susank, Great Bend Airport, Cheyenne Bottoms and
  Odin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9903 3869 9849 3826 9848 3826 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 1316Z 268DEG 15KT 3828 9905

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
853 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 AM     TSTM WND GST     GREAT BEND AIRPORT      38.35N 98.85W
06/26/2018  M52 MPH          Barton             KS   AWOS

&&

TVAUGHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
904 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     HAIL             5 SSW GREAT BEND        38.29N 98.84W
06/26/2018  M1.75 INCH       BARTON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TVAUGHAN