Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1212 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018

Forecast concerns focus around severe weather and heavy rain
potential tonight across mainly southern Kansas, with dangerous
heat/humidity combination by Friday.

Shortwave energy currently approaching from the Four Corners
region is/will support scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon and evening across the central and southern High Plains.
This activity is expected to gradually grow upscale into a
healthy forward-propagating MCS across mainly southwest into
southern KS as the evening and overnight progresses, due to
strengthening isentropic ascent and moisture transport
along/north of a stationary front. Instability/deep layer shear
combination will likely support severe weather, mainly in the form
of damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. While not
overly impressive, low-level shear should be adequate to create a
balanced system-generated cold pool. Additionally, deep layer
shear values (i.e. 0-10km) are impressive (greater than 60-70
kts). While we do not think this will be a high-end derecho due to
marginal low-level storm relative inflow and a modest-at-best
low-level jet, there is concern for a strong bow echo or two
capable of swaths of wind damage overnight across mainly southern
KS and northern OK. The highest threat will likely be between 9pm
and 3am, generally along/south of Hutchinson to Newton to Emporia.
Furthermore, the potential for back-building convection across
mainly southern Kansas in wake of the initial bow echo could spell
pockets of heavy rainfall amounts and localized flooding.

The concern then focuses to dangerous heat/humidity on Friday, as
temperatures soar into the 90s, with 70+ dewpoints likely
advecting north across the region. This will likely support
dangerous afternoon and evening heat indices exceeding 100-105+
degrees. Fully anticipate later shifts will need to issue some
sort of heat headline to cover this threat.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018

Expecting a strong cold front to blast south across Mid-America
Saturday, supporting a return to seasonable temperatures and much
lower dewpoints/humidity. The early timing of the cold front does
not favor thunderstorm chances across the region Saturday, with
the exception of far eastern Kansas and points on east/northeast.

Model consensus supports a return to hot, summer-like weather by
next week, as atmospheric heights/thickness increase. Overall
thunderstorm potential will remain relatively low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018

A severe MCS with strong winds and some hail will race eastward
across south central and southeast Kansas overnight. Expect
sudden and greatly reduced visibilities in heavy rain. Chances for
convection will linger through Thursday across southeast Kansas
with VFR conditions prevailing across the entire area during the
daylight hours.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  91  71  96 /  80  20  10   0
Hutchinson      65  91  70  96 /  60  20  10   0
Newton          66  89  69  94 /  60  20  10   0
ElDorado        67  88  69  93 /  70  30  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   67  91  72  95 /  90  20  10   0
Russell         63  91  68  97 /  20  20  10   0
Great Bend      63  92  68  96 /  30  20   0   0
Salina          65  92  69  97 /  20  20  10   0
McPherson       64  91  69  96 /  40  20  10   0
Coffeyville     69  89  71  94 /  80  50  20   0
Chanute         68  87  69  93 /  80  50  20   0
Iola            68  86  69  92 /  80  50  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    68  88  70  94 /  80  50  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
825 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-010130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
825 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central, South
Central and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The threat for severe thunderstorms is expected to increase late
this evening and persist for most of the night, especially across
southern Kansas where damaging winds from 60 to 75 mph are possible
along with hail that may reach golf ball-sized in a few locations.
Pockets of very heavy rains are also likely with localized flooding.
The greatest severe threat will be generally along and south of a
line extending from Hutchinson to Newton to Emporia.

The Saline River near Russell may approach flood stage later
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Hit-or-miss strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may linger
across the entire area Thursday morning, with chances shifting into
far southeast Kansas Thursday afternoon and evening. Widespread
severe weather is not expected.

The Saline River near Russell may hover near flood stage on
Thursday.

Dangerous heat indices reaching 102 to 107 degrees are likely in all
areas on Friday, with the highest indices across southern Kansas.
Dangerous heat indices may linger across southeast Kansas for
Saturday.

Slight chances for a few thunderstorms may exist Tuesday and
Wednesday across the region. The risk for organized severe weather
appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     TSTM WND GST     HARPER                  37.29N 98.03W
05/31/2018  E60 MPH          HARPER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1229 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 AM     TSTM WND GST     HARPER                  37.28N 98.03W
05/31/2018  E70 MPH          HARPER             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER OUTAGES ALSO REPORTED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1234 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     TSTM WND GST     HARPER                  37.28N 98.03W
05/31/2018  E80 MPH          HARPER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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