Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
652 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Main challenge in the short term will the timing and intensity
of the thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening.  Instability
is strong with more than two grand of CAPE and 30 to 40 knots of
shear will make this afternoon and evening ripe for severe
weather. While golf ball sized hail and severe wind will be the
initial primary threat, this will transition into a wind and heavy
rain threat by the evening hours. PW is very high, generally
holding in the 1.4 inch range which is well above the normal of
0.9 inches for this time of year. Moisture transport is also
strong with good mid and upper level dynamics will make any storm
that develops this afternoon and evening a very effective rain
maker. Much of the thunderstorm activity will have very heavy rain
and will likely cause localized flooding.

Once the frontal system moves through the region late tonight, the
thunderstorm threat will come to an end. Unfortunately, this
front will not change the air mass much if at all. Temperatures
will still remain unseasonably warm and humid for the most part
Wednesday and Thursday. Storm chances for Wednesday are good as
there still is plenty of moisture available but instability,
forcing and upper level dynamics are significantly less. As such,
severe weather chances will drop off significantly Wednesday.
However, with the ample moisture available, any storms that do
develop will be capable of producing very heavy rain and some
localized flooding in the southern areas of the CWA. Thursday, the
rain and thunderstorm threat will shift a little more to the east
into the Southeastern portions of Kansas.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Main challenge in the extended will be the extent of the heat for
Friday and the timing of the cold front which will bring
temperatures back down toward normal for this time of year.
Friday, a mid level ridge will encroach on the region ahead of the
cold front will southerly winds. This will allow temperatures to
approach record levels for this time of year. If the wind shifts a
little more to the west, records will become quite likely. The
front is expected to come through later. Unlike the previous
frontal system which came through Tuesday and Wednesday, this
system will likely come through dry as the moisture transport just
is not there to support significant thunderstorm development. By
Saturday, winds will shift some out of the north and west and will
allow temperatures to come back down toward normal for the
weekend.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

A tough first six hours of this TAF period is expected as a line
of well developed thunderstorms will be moving through the region.
RSL looks to escape the bulk of the activity and GBD will likely
see an end to the activity in the few hour or so. SLN, ICT and
HUT will be next in line in the next hour and will likely have
MVFR and IFR conditions through most of the evening with the
thunderstorm activity. Hail is also a likely possibility as well.
SLN, ICT and HUT will likely see an end to this activity near
04-05Z this evening. CNU will be the last to get in on the
thunderstorm activity with thunderstorms expected to arrive near
07-08Z this morning. Once the thunder end, VFR conditions are
expected to return to the region.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  91  68  93 /  80  10  40  10
Hutchinson      64  90  66  93 /  80  10  30  10
Newton          65  89  67  92 /  80  10  40  10
ElDorado        65  89  68  90 /  80  10  50  20
Winfield-KWLD   66  90  69  92 /  70  10  50  20
Russell         61  89  63  93 /  60   0  10   0
Great Bend      62  88  63  92 /  60   0  20   0
Salina          64  91  66  94 /  80  10  20  10
McPherson       64  90  65  93 /  70  10  30  10
Coffeyville     67  90  70  90 /  60  20  50  30
Chanute         66  89  69  89 /  60  20  50  30
Iola            66  88  69  89 /  50  20  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    67  90  70  90 /  60  20  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...ELM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
435 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302145-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
435 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms will be developing this afternoon, generally along and
west of Highway 99. Some of these storms are expected to be severe
with golf ball sized hail and 70 mph winds. Additionally, an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon. The hail
threat will be primarily in the afternoon and early evening and
will then transition to a wind and heavy rain threat. Many of these
storms this evening hours are expected to have very heavy rain
which is expected to cause localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Chances for storms will diminish or end early Wednesday before
returning Wednesday night through Thursday night. A few strong
storms are possible Wednesday night across south central and
southeast Kansas. Moisture levels are high enough to allow these
storms to be a heavy rain threat. Localized flooding in low lying
areas is likely with some of these storms.

Heat and humidity will increase across the region late in the week,
with heat index values at or above 100 degrees possible during the
afternoon hours on Friday across much of the area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Monday
night into Tuesday. Some of these storms could be strong.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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