Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Wichita, KS

792 
WWUS53 KICT 292358
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
658 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

KSC105-300008-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-180530T0030Z/
Lincoln KS-
658 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LINCOLN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3922 9793 3887 9793 3887 9822 3904 9838
      3922 9827
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 234DEG 13KT 3910 9809 

$$

MCGUIRE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
313 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Main challenge in the short term will the timing and intensity
of the thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening.  Instability
is strong with more than two grand of CAPE and 30 to 40 knots of
shear will make this afternoon and evening ripe for severe
weather. While golf ball sized hail and severe wind will be the
initial primary threat, this will transition into a wind and heavy
rain threat by the evening hours. PW is very high, generally
holding in the 1.4 inch range which is well above the normal of
0.9 inches for this time of year. Moisture transport is also
strong with good mid and upper level dynamics will make any storm
that develops this afternoon and evening a very effective rain
maker. Much of the thunderstorm activity will have very heavy rain
and will likely cause localized flooding.

Once the frontal system moves through the region late tonight, the
thunderstorm threat will come to an end. Unfortunately, this
front will not change the air mass much if at all. Temperatures
will still remain unseasonably warm and humid for the most part
Wednesday and Thursday. Storm chances for Wednesday are good as
there still is plenty of moisture available but instability,
forcing and upper level dynamics are significantly less. As such,
severe weather chances will drop off significantly Wednesday.
However, with the ample moisture available, any storms that do
develop will be capable of producing very heavy rain and some
localized flooding in the southern areas of the CWA. Thursday, the
rain and thunderstorm threat will shift a little more to the east
into the Southeastern portions of Kansas.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Main challenge in the extended will be the extent of the heat for
Friday and the timing of the cold front which will bring
temperatures back down toward normal for this time of year.
Friday, a mid level ridge will encroach on the region ahead of the
cold front will southerly winds. This will allow temperatures to
approach record levels for this time of year. If the wind shifts a
little more to the west, records will become quite likely. The
front is expected to come through later. Unlike the previous
frontal system which came through Tuesday and Wednesday, this
system will likely come through dry as the moisture transport just
is not there to support significant thunderstorm development. By
Saturday, winds will shift some out of the north and west and will
allow temperatures to come back down toward normal for the
weekend.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Main aviation concern will be convective trends this evening
through the overnight hours.

Water vapor imagery shows upper wave spinning over northwest
Nebraska/se SD. Outflow from morning convection pushed down into
nw OK and looks to have finally stalled and is expected to slowly
wash out. Meanwhile, sct elevated showers and storms continue
across parts of central KS in an area of very strong mid level
theta-e advection that looks to slowly shift northeast.

Storms are still expected to develop generally after 21z west of
I-135 as the main upper wave lifts out. This activity should
affect KRSL-KGBD around 21-22z and KICT around 00-01z. Heavy rain,
hail and strong winds will be possible with the stronger storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  91  69  93 /  70  10  40  10
Hutchinson      64  90  67  93 /  70   0  30  10
Newton          65  89  68  92 /  70  10  30  10
ElDorado        65  89  68  90 /  70  10  40  20
Winfield-KWLD   66  90  69  92 /  70  10  40  20
Russell         61  89  64  93 /  70   0  10  10
Great Bend      62  88  64  93 /  70   0  10  10
Salina          64  91  66  94 /  70  10  20  10
McPherson       64  90  66  92 /  70  10  30  10
Coffeyville     67  90  71  90 /  60  30  40  20
Chanute         66  89  69  89 /  60  20  40  30
Iola            66  88  69  88 /  60  20  30  40
Parsons-KPPF    67  90  70  90 /  60  30  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
435 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302145-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
435 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms will be developing this afternoon, generally along and
west of Highway 99. Some of these storms are expected to be severe
with golf ball sized hail and 70 mph winds. Additionally, an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon. The hail
threat will be primarily in the afternoon and early evening and
will then transition to a wind and heavy rain threat. Many of these
storms this evening hours are expected to have very heavy rain
which is expected to cause localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Chances for storms will diminish or end early Wednesday before
returning Wednesday night through Thursday night. A few strong
storms are possible Wednesday night across south central and
southeast Kansas. Moisture levels are high enough to allow these
storms to be a heavy rain threat. Localized flooding in low lying
areas is likely with some of these storms.

Heat and humidity will increase across the region late in the week,
with heat index values at or above 100 degrees possible during the
afternoon hours on Friday across much of the area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Monday
night into Tuesday. Some of these storms could be strong.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
546 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

KSZ048-049-292315-
Ellsworth KS-Saline KS-
546 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Eastern Ellsworth County in central Kansas...
  Southwestern Saline County in central Kansas...

* Until 615 PM CDT

* At 545 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles northwest of Marquette, or
  13 miles southeast of Kanopolis...moving north at 20 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Brookville, Smolan, Falun, Kanopolis Lake and Kanopolis State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3873 9760 3861 9781 3861 9792 3856 9793
      3857 9808 3887 9811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 197DEG 16KT 3862 9794

MCGUIRE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
553 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

KSZ051-292330-
McPherson KS-
553 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southern McPherson County in central Kansas...

* Until 630 PM CDT

* At 552 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Inman...moving north at 20 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Mcpherson, Inman, Galva and Mcpherson Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3842 9746 3817 9763 3820 9785 3851 9779
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 197DEG 16KT 3825 9772

MCGUIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
609 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             ELLINWOOD               38.36N 98.59W
05/29/2018  E1.00 INCH       BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
612 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HAIL             ELLINWOOD               38.36N 98.58W
05/29/2018  E1.75 INCH       BARTON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
617 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             4 WNW ELLINWOOD         38.38N 98.65W
05/29/2018  E1.25 INCH       BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
621 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LINDSBORG               38.57N 97.68W
05/29/2018                   MCPHERSON          KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF LARGE TREE DOWN VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&