River Flood Warning 53, NWS Wichita, KS

933 
WGUS83 KICT 121333
FLSICT
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
833 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Kansas...
 
  Arkansas River at Hutchinson affecting Reno County.

  Arkansas River at Derby affecting Sedgwick County.

  Arkansas River near Mulvane affecting Sedgwick and Sumner Counties.

  Arkansas River at Oxford affecting Sumner County.

  Arkansas River near Haven affecting Reno and Sedgwick Counties.

  Arkansas River at Arkansas City affecting Cowley County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive into flooded areas or go around barricades. Nearly two 
feet of water will carry most vehicles away. Turn around don't drown.

&&

KSC155-130331-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-181017T0000Z/
/HCHK1.1.ER.181011T0714Z.181013T0600Z.181016T1200Z.NO/
833 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River at Hutchinson.
* Until Tuesday evening.
* At 5:45 AM Friday the stage was 10.4 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will begin to rise this afternoon and continue 
  rising to near 11.1 feet by early Saturday morning. The river will 
  fall below flood stage Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of Carey Park, more so
  after a few days of ground water seepage. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sat    Sun    Mon
  Hutchinson      8.0   10.4  Fri 6 AM    10.7   10.6    9.1
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3828 9827 3805 9782 3795 9789 3821 9842


$$

KSC155-173-130331-
/O.CON.KICT.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HAVK1.3.ER.181011T1255Z.181012T0800Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
833 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River near Haven.
* Until further notice.
* At 8:01 AM Friday the stage was 12.8 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will stay near 12.8 feet into this afternoon then 
  begin falling.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flooding overspreads pasture land along both
  banks to an extent of 30 feet. The river current will be swift with
  violent eddys in the middle channel. Water over tops the dike about
  3 miles upstream from the gage site at Haven Road. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sat    Sun    Mon
  Haven           10.0  12.8  Fri 8 AM    12.6   12.4   12.0
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3805 9782 3787 9744 3773 9751 3795 9789


$$

KSC173-130331-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0053.181014T0600Z-181015T0000Z/
/DRBK1.1.ER.181014T0600Z.181014T0600Z.181014T1200Z.NO/
833 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At Derby.
* From late Saturday night until Sunday evening and steady.
* At 8:00 AM Friday the stage was 9.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage early 
  Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying areas and bottom lands
  can be expected. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sat    Sun    Mon
  Derby           12.0   9.5  Fri 8 AM    11.6   12.0   11.4
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3763 9728 3754 9721 3750 9732 3761 9739


$$

KSC173-191-130331-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0054.181013T1100Z-181015T1400Z/
/MULK1.1.ER.181013T1100Z.181014T0000Z.181015T0200Z.NO/
833 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Mulvane.
* From Saturday morning until Monday morning.
* At 7:15 AM Friday the stage was 14.7 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Saturday morning 
  and continue to rise to near 17.0 feet by Saturday evening. Then it 
  will fall below flood stage by Sunday before midnight.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet...Lowland flooding occurs along the vicinity 
  of the river, primarily affecting the farmland northwest of the 
  Highway 53 bridge. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sat    Sun    Mon
  Mulvane         16.5  14.7  Fri 7 AM    16.6   16.9   16.1
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3754 9721 3742 9712 3735 9725 3749 9733


$$

KSC191-130331-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-181017T1600Z/
/OXFK1.2.ER.181009T1610Z.181011T1445Z.181017T0400Z.NO/
833 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At Oxford.
* Until Wednesday morning.
* At 8:05 AM Friday the stage was 19.7 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Tuesday before midnight.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Low lying agricultural fields flood north of
  the river gage site. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sat    Sun    Mon
  Oxford          17.0  19.7  Fri 8 AM    19.0   19.2   19.0
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3741 9712 3717 9704 3715 9722 3735 9725


$$

KSC035-130331-
/O.CON.KICT.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARCK1.2.ER.181009T0312Z.181012T1115Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
833 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At Arkansas City.
* Until further notice.
* At 8:00 AM Friday the stage was 17.4 feet and cresting.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is near its crest and will begin to fall to a 
  stage of 15.6 feet by Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...The Water Plant takes precautions on water 
  well pump houses west of the Arkansas River. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sat    Sun    Mon
  Arkansas City   11.0  17.4  Fri 8 AM    15.6   14.5   14.1
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3717 9704 3710 9703 3700 9684 3700 9703
      3703 9713 3715 9722             

$$

vp

906 
WGUS83 KICT 121935
FLSICT
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
235 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Kansas...
 
  Arkansas River At Hutchinson affecting Reno County.

  Arkansas River At Derby affecting Sedgwick County.

  Arkansas River Near Mulvane affecting Sedgwick and Sumner Counties.

  Arkansas River At Oxford affecting Sumner County.

  Arkansas River near Haven affecting Reno and Sedgwick Counties.

  Arkansas River At Arkansas City affecting Cowley County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive into flooded areas or go around barricades. Nearly two 
feet of water will carry most vehicles away. Turn around don't drown.

&&

KSC155-130935-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-181017T0900Z/
/HCHK1.1.ER.181011T0714Z.181011T2000Z.181016T2100Z.NO/
235 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At Hutchinson.
* Until late Tuesday night.
* At 12:30 PM Friday the stage was 9.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 10.6 feet by 
  early Sunday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of Carey Park, more so
  after a few days of ground water seepage. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sat    Sun    Mon
  Hutchinson      8.0   9.9  Fri 12 PM    9.9   10.5    9.4
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3828 9827 3805 9782 3795 9789 3821 9842


$$

KSC155-173-130935-
/O.CON.KICT.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HAVK1.3.ER.181011T1255Z.181012T0800Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
235 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River near Haven.
* Until further notice.
* At  1:45 PM Friday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 12.7 feet by 
  Sunday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flooding overspreads pasture land along both
  banks to an extent of 30 feet. The river current will be swift with
  violent eddys in the middle channel. Water over tops the dike about
  3 miles upstream from the gage site at Haven Road. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sat    Sun    Mon
  Haven           10.0  12.6  Fri 02 PM   12.4   12.7   12.0
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3805 9782 3787 9744 3773 9751 3795 9789


$$

KSC173-130935-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0053.181013T1800Z-181014T1200Z/
/DRBK1.1.ER.181013T1800Z.181013T1800Z.181014T0000Z.NO/
235 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At Derby.
* From Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning.
* At  2:00 PM Friday the stage was 9.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage early 
  Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying areas and bottom lands
  can be expected. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sat    Sun    Mon
  Derby           12.0   9.5  Fri 02 PM   11.7   11.8   11.6
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3763 9728 3754 9721 3750 9732 3761 9739


$$

KSC173-191-130935-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0054.181013T1000Z-181016T1200Z/
/MULK1.1.ER.181013T1000Z.181014T0000Z.181016T0000Z.NO/
235 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Mulvane.
* From late tonight until Tuesday morning.
* At  1:15 PM Friday the stage was 14.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Saturday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 17.2 feet by Saturday evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Monday evening.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet...Lowland flooding occurs along the vicinity 
  of the river, primarily affecting the farmland northwest of the 
  Highway 53 bridge. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sat    Sun    Mon
  Mulvane         16.5  14.6  Fri 01 PM   16.8   16.9   16.7
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3754 9721 3742 9712 3735 9725 3749 9733


$$

KSC191-130935-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-181017T2100Z/
/OXFK1.2.ER.181009T1610Z.181011T1445Z.181017T0900Z.NO/
235 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At Oxford.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At  2:05 PM Friday the stage was 19.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 19.3 feet by 
  Saturday evening. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Low lying agricultural fields flood north of
  the river gage site. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sat    Sun    Mon
  Oxford          17.0  19.1  Fri 02 PM   19.1   19.1   18.6
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3741 9712 3717 9704 3715 9722 3735 9725


$$

KSC035-130935-
/O.CON.KICT.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARCK1.2.ER.181009T0312Z.181012T1115Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
235 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At Arkansas City.
* Until further notice.
* At  2:00 PM Friday the stage was 17.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 15.5 feet 
  by Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...The Water Plant takes precautions on water 
  well pump houses west of the Arkansas River. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sat    Sun    Mon
  Arkansas City   11.0  17.0  Fri 02 PM   15.5   14.9   13.9
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3717 9704 3710 9703 3700 9684 3700 9703
      3703 9713 3715 9722             

$$

JAS

615 
WGUS83 KICT 130141
FLSICT
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
841 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Kansas...
 
  Arkansas River Near Mulvane affecting Sedgwick and Sumner Counties.

  Arkansas River At Oxford affecting Sumner County.

  Little Arkansas River Near Halstead affecting Harvey County.

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Kansas...

  Arkansas River near Haven affecting Reno and Sedgwick Counties.

  Arkansas River At Derby affecting Sedgwick County.

  Arkansas River At Arkansas City affecting Cowley County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive into flooded areas or go around barricades. Nearly two 
feet of water will carry most vehicles away. Turn around don't drown.

&&

KSC155-173-131540-
/O.CON.KICT.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HAVK1.3.ER.181011T1255Z.181012T0800Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
841 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River near Haven.
* Until further notice.
* At  8:16 PM Friday the stage was 12.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 11.9 feet 
  by Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flooding overspreads pasture land along both
  banks to an extent of 30 feet. The river current will be swift with
  violent eddys in the middle channel. Water over tops the dike about
  3 miles upstream from the gage site at Haven Road. 

&&


                     FLD       OBSERVED        FORECAST 7 PM
Location             STG    STG  DAY  TIME    Sat   Sun   Mon   
  Haven              10.0  12.3  Fri 08 PM   11.8  12.0  11.7
    
&&
    
LAT...LON 3805 9782 3787 9744 3773 9751 3795 9789


$$

KSC173-131540-
/O.CON.KICT.FL.W.0053.181013T1800Z-181014T1200Z/
/DRBK1.1.ER.181013T1800Z.181013T1800Z.181014T0000Z.NO/
841 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At Derby.
* From Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning.
* At  8:00 PM Friday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage early 
  Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying areas and bottom lands
  can be expected. 

&&


                     FLD       OBSERVED        FORECAST 7 PM
Location             STG    STG  DAY  TIME    Sat   Sun   Mon   
  Derby              12.0  10.2  Fri 08 PM   12.0  11.3  11.1
    
&&
    
LAT...LON 3763 9728 3754 9721 3750 9732 3761 9739


$$

KSC173-191-131540-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0054.181013T1030Z-181015T0600Z/
/MULK1.1.ER.181013T1030Z.181014T0000Z.181014T1800Z.NO/
841 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Mulvane.
* From late tonight until late Sunday night.
* At  8:15 PM Friday the stage was 15.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Saturday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 17.3 feet by Saturday evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Sunday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet...Lowland flooding occurs along the vicinity 
  of the river, primarily affecting the farmland northwest of the 
  Highway 53 bridge. 

&&


                     FLD       OBSERVED        FORECAST 7 PM
Location             STG    STG  DAY  TIME    Sat   Sun   Mon   
  Mulvane            16.5  15.1  Fri 08 PM   17.3  16.2  15.9
    
&&
    
LAT...LON 3754 9721 3742 9712 3735 9725 3749 9733


$$

KSC191-131540-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-181017T2000Z/
/OXFK1.2.ER.181009T1610Z.181011T1445Z.181017T0800Z.NO/
841 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At Oxford.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At  8:20 PM Friday the stage was 18.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 19.2 feet by 
  Saturday evening. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Low lying agricultural fields flood north of
  the river gage site. 

&&


                     FLD       OBSERVED        FORECAST 7 PM
Location             STG    STG  DAY  TIME    Sat   Sun   Mon   
  Oxford             17.0  18.4  Fri 08 PM   19.2  18.7  18.0
    
&&
    
LAT...LON 3741 9712 3717 9704 3715 9722 3735 9725


$$

KSC035-131540-
/O.CON.KICT.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARCK1.2.ER.181009T0312Z.181012T1115Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
841 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At Arkansas City.
* Until further notice.
* At  8:00 PM Friday the stage was 16.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 14.8 feet 
  by Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...The Water Plant takes precautions on water 
  well pump houses west of the Arkansas River. 

&&


                     FLD       OBSERVED        FORECAST 7 PM
Location             STG    STG  DAY  TIME    Sat   Sun   Mon   
  Arkansas City      11.0  16.3  Fri 08 PM   14.9  14.3  13.3
    
&&
    
LAT...LON 3717 9704 3710 9703 3700 9684 3700 9703
      3703 9713 3715 9722             

$$

KSC079-131504-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-181013T1504Z/
/HTDK1.1.ER.181009T1335Z.181010T1115Z.181013T0304Z.NR/
841 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Little Arkansas River Near Halstead.
* Until Saturday morning.
* At  8:01 PM Friday the stage was 25.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tonight.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Expect cropland and field flooding near the 
  river. 

&&


                     FLD       OBSERVED        FORECAST 7 PM
Location             STG    STG  DAY  TIME    Sat   Sun   Mon   
  Halstead           25.0  25.2  Fri 08 PM   22.5  17.9  13.4
    
&&
    
LAT...LON 3809 9753 3800 9740 3792 9754 3806 9770


$$

Vaughan

230 
WGUS83 KICT 131353
FLSICT
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
853 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Kansas...
 
  Arkansas River at Derby affecting Sedgwick County.
 
  Arkansas River near Mulvane affecting Sedgwick and Sumner 
  Counties.
 
...The flood warning continues for the following river in Kansas...
 
  Arkansas River at Hutchinson affecting Reno County.

  Arkansas River near Haven affecting Reno and Sedgwick Counties.

  Arkansas River at Oxford affecting Sumner County.

  Arkansas River At Arkansas City affecting Cowley County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive into flooded areas or go around barricades. Nearly two 
feet of water will carry most vehicles away. Turn around don't drown.

&&

KSC155-140352-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-181017T1500Z/
/HCHK1.1.ER.181011T0714Z.181011T2000Z.181017T0300Z.NO/
853 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River at Hutchinson.
* Until Wednesday morning.
* At 4:15 AM Saturday the stage was 9.0 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will begin to rise tonight and continue rising 
  to near 9.5 feet by early Monday morning. Then the river will fall 
  below flood stage Tuesday before midnight.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of Carey Park, more so
  after a few days of ground water seepage. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sun    Mon    Tue
  Hutchinson      8.0    9.0  Sat 4 AM     9.2    9.5    8.9
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3828 9827 3805 9782 3795 9789 3821 9842


$$

KSC155-173-140352-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-181018T1800Z/
/HAVK1.3.ER.181011T1255Z.181012T0800Z.181018T0600Z.NR/
853 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River near Haven.
* Until Thursday afternoon.
* At 8:30 AM Saturday the stage was 11.7 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall today but then rise on 
  Sunday. It will continue to rise to near 11.8 feet by early Monday 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage early Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flooding overspreads pasture land along both
  banks to an extent of 30 feet. The river current will be swift with
  violent eddys in the middle channel. Water over tops the dike about
  3 miles upstream from the gage site at Haven Road. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sun    Mon    Tue
  Haven           10.0  11.7  Sat 8 AM    11.5   11.8   11.5
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3805 9782 3787 9744 3773 9751 3795 9789


$$

KSC173-131423-
/O.CAN.KICT.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-181014T1200Z/
/DRBK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
853 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Arkansas River at Derby.
* At 8:16 AM Saturday the stage was 11.2 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 11.2 feet and will 
  fall to 11.1 feet by Sunday morning. Then it will fall below action 
  stage of 10 feet on Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying areas and bottom lands
  can be expected. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sun    Mon    Tue
  Derby           12.0  11.2  Sat 8 AM    11.1   10.9   10.6
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3763 9728 3754 9721 3750 9732 3761 9739


$$

KSC173-191-131423-
/O.CAN.KICT.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-181015T0600Z/
/MULK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
853 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Arkansas River near Mulvane.
* At 8:15 AM Saturday the stage was 16.2 feet and cresting.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 16.2 feet and 
  will fall to 15.9 feet by Sunday morning. It will fall below action
  stage of 15 feet on Monday night.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet...Lowland flooding occurs along the vicinity 
  of the river, primarily affecting the farmland northwest of the 
  Highway 53 bridge. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sun    Mon    Tue
  Mulvane         16.5  16.2  Sat 8 AM    15.9   15.2   14.9
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3754 9721 3742 9712 3735 9725 3749 9733


$$

KSC191-140352-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-181017T1200Z/
/OXFK1.2.ER.181009T1610Z.181011T1445Z.181017T0000Z.NO/
853 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River at Oxford.
* Until Wednesday morning.
* At 8:20 AM Saturday the stage was 17.6 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 18.6 feet by 
  early Sunday morning and then will fall below flood stage Tuesday
  evening.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Low lying agricultural fields flood north of
  the river gage site. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sun    Mon    Tue
  Oxford          17.0  17.6  Sat 8 AM    18.5   17.7   17.2
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3741 9712 3717 9704 3715 9722 3735 9725


$$

KSC035-140352-
/O.CON.KICT.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARCK1.2.ER.181009T0312Z.181012T1115Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
853 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River at Arkansas City.
* Until further notice.
* At 8:00 AM Saturday the stage was 14.4 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will begin to rise once more tonight and 
  continue rising to near 14.6 feet by Sunday morning then begin 
  falling. It is forecast to fall below flood stage on Thursday.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...The Water Plant takes precautions on water 
  well pump houses west of the Arkansas River. 

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
Location          STG    STG  DAY TIME     Sun    Mon    Tue
  Arkansas City   11.0  14.4  Sat 8 AM    14.6   13.8   12.9
    
&&
     
LAT...LON 3717 9704 3710 9703 3700 9684 3700 9703
      3703 9713 3715 9722             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
712 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

A broad area of high pressure is situated over the Plains states
this afternoon. Beneath this high, lows this morning fell below
freezing for a few of our far northwest counties thanks to lighter
winds and less cloudcover. Meanwhile, the latest surface analysis
suggests a weak lee-side low is beginning to develop over
southwest Colorado, possibly in response to a weak PV anomaly
ejecting out of the central Rockies. This low may deepen some, but
a lack of more substantial height falls should keep any deepening
at a minimum. East of the low, a modest LLJ will develop by this
evening, with a broad area of WAA developing across much of
Kansas. The increasing low-level flow should aid in quicker
moisture advection with PWats nearing 1" across southern Kansas.

Initially, we should see some increase in shower activity early
this evening within the WAA regime. Later this evening through the
overnight hours, a s/w trough will drop SE out of Montana,
providing at least some enhanced lift/convergence over Kansas.
This should lead to an increased coverage/intensity of the rain,
with one or two bands of moderate rain developing across the area.
Of note, though, the models have backed off some on the lift
associated with this wave and instead of a band of moderate to
heavy rain, we may end up seeing more of a broad area of light to
occasionally moderate rain. Forecast soundings and hi-res guidance
still suggest some banding potential with embedded thunder, but
the greater potential seems to be shifting south of I-70 and east
of I-135. The main takeaway here is that QPF amounts were lowered
some compared to previous forecasts due to the expectation of
somewhat weaker lift/convergence. That said, there is still some
potential for a few locations to see over a half an inch (likely
east-central through southeast Kansas). This is important because
of any implication it could have on river levels/forecasts. For
now, the main impact looks to be slowing the fall of rivers
currently in flood, which would extend, at least briefly, the
flooding impacts. Precip should quickly move out from west to east
late Friday morning through Friday afternoon. Please see they
"Hydrology" section for additional information on the ongoing
river flooding.

Martin

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

The extended portion of the forecast continues to be a complex one
as we deal with the remnants of "Sergio", followed by the
potential of some wintry precipitation.

Tropical Storm "Sergio" has already begun to get pulled northeast
by the larger-scale upper trough that extends from California to
Hudson Bay. Medium range guidance continues to remain in good
agreement regarding the upper level pattern and associated track
of the remnants of "Sergio". As it lifts northeast, it should
transition to a mid-latitude system over the Southern Plains,
producing a swath of heavy rain from Texas through the Ohio
Valley. Model and WPC guidance have all shifted a bit south with
the axis of heavy rain and for now I see no reason to disagree
with this consensus. Ultimately, this should keep QPF amounts
directly associated with "Sergio" on the lower side for our CWA.

As what is left of "Sergio" races east, we should begin to see a
phasing of the northern and southern branches of the jet stream by
Sunday. Meanwhile, an initially shallow cold front is forecast to
surge south down the lee of the Rockies late Saturday into
Sunday. While the exact evolution of the SFC and upper level
features will continue to be refined in coming days, the latest
model guidance suggests an overrunning setup could develop on
Sunday. Within this setup, low-level CAA and moderate precip
rates could lower temps enough for rain to mix with, or perhaps
even change to, a wet snow for a portion of our forecast area.
The coldest air may lag the main precip shield leading to a
somewhat limited opportunity for wintry precip, but synoptically,
the potential is definitely there. Given this is still 3-4 days
out, confidence remains somewhat lower as the wintry potential may
be very much rate- driven and dependent on how quickly the cold
air arrives. Initial thought is that the best opportunity for some
wintry precip will be central Kansas, roughly northwest of a
Great Bend to Salina line, but the latest forecast will reflect
the potential of a rain/snow mix as far south and east as the
Wichita metro. Warmer ground/road temps and temperatures
near/just above freezing will likely be limiting factors for any
accumulation and it is too early to even speculate on potential
amounts (if any occurs at all). Stay tuned...

What is more certain is a shot of abnormally cold air in the wake
of this system, with some records potentially in jeopardy. A
widespread freeze seems plausible as well. The colder air looks
to be short- lived, though, as temperatures should moderate as
return flow ensues.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 711 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Expect deteriorating aviation conditions for the next 6-12 hours.
A mid level disturbance will lead to rain showers moving across
the forecast area late this evening through Fri morning. As the
light rain moves in, expect cigs to initially drop to MVFR, first
in central KS for KGBD, KRSL and KSLN and eventually for
KHUT/KICT. As the showers move east to west across the area,
through the morning hours on Fri, cigs will slowly to drop IFR in
some locations. Some of the heavier showers may also drop vsbys
briefly to MVFR as well.

The system will be quick hitting with aviation conditions improving
across portions of central KS (KRSL/KGBD) by Fri afternoon.

Ketcham

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

The number of river flood and areal flood warnings have gone down,
but significant impacts from river flooding continue. With
a couple more weather systems on the horizon, water levels will be
slow to recede and flooding impacts could conceivably linger
through the upcoming weekend. Please continue to monitor
statements for the most up-to-date information for rivers in your
specific area.

QPF amounts through the weekend look to be in the 0.25 to 0.75"
range, with the highest amounts expected from south-central
through southeast Kansas. Far southeast Kansas could potentially
near or exceed 1", depending on the track of "Sergio's" remnants.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  56  40  57 /  80  80   0  40
Hutchinson      45  55  39  56 / 100  80   0  40
Newton          45  53  40  57 /  90  90   0  30
ElDorado        45  53  40  57 /  80  90   0  30
Winfield-KWLD   46  56  40  58 /  70  90   0  40
Russell         42  55  38  59 /  80  50   0  20
Great Bend      43  55  39  58 /  80  40   0  30
Salina          44  53  39  58 / 100  80   0  30
McPherson       44  53  38  57 / 100  80   0  40
Coffeyville     46  54  41  60 /  60  90  10  20
Chanute         44  51  40  58 /  70  90  10  10
Iola            44  50  39  58 /  70  90  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    45  53  41  59 /  60  90  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...Ketcham
HYDROLOGY...RM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
430 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-122130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
430 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

River flooding, some significant, will continue in many areas, so
please continue to monitor the latest Flood Warning statements for
further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

River flooding, some significant, will continue on many rivers the
rest of the week, and for some rivers throughout the weekend. Be
sure to check all flood statements for further details.

A cold rain may mix with, or change to, all snow across portions of
central Kansas on Sunday, especially the I-70 corridor. A rain and
snow mix cannot be ruled out across south-central and southeast
Kansas by Sunday evening. Stay tuned for updates on the winter
precipitation potential.

A widespread freeze is possible areawide early next week with record
or near-record temperatures possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Martin