Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Wichita, KS

711 
WWUS83 KICT 262355
RFWICT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wichita KS
555 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2018

KSZ032-033-047-048-270100-
/O.EXP.KICT.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180227T0000Z/
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-
555 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 032...033...
047 AND 048...

South winds have started to decrease across the region which will
bring the grassland fire danger below dangerous levels. 

$$

Lawson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
349 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 347 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018

Forecast highlights: Near to above normal temperatures expected
much of the next 7-10 days...rain/drizzle and thunderstorm chances
across mainly eastern Kansas Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening...several bouts of elevated grassland fire danger.

Increasing atmospheric thickness in concert with stout/gusty
south winds will support warmer temperatures reaching the 60s
today. This will also support elevated fire danger (refer to "fire
weather" section below).

Chances for rain showers, drizzle and perhaps a few embedded
thunderstorms will increase across mainly southeast Kansas Tuesday
afternoon and evening, as isentropic ascent and moisture
transport increases ahead of an approaching subtle lead shortwave.
Rainfall amounts should remain fairly light (less than 0.25").
Precipitation type Tuesday night through Wednesday morning may
transition to more of a patchy drizzle due to loss of cloud ice,
although temperatures will remain above freezing so not expecting
freezing drizzle. As deeper lift and moisture transport increases
ahead of the approaching parent upper trough, showers with
embedded thunderstorms should increase once again Wednesday
afternoon and evening over far eastern Kansas. Cannot rule out a
rowdy thunderstorm or two across far eastern Kansas given the
strong forcing, although meager instability should preclude severe
weather. Overall, greatest chance for widespread showers/storms
will remain just east of the region. Finally, could see a light
wintry mix across portions of central and eastern Kansas Wednesday
night as colder air filters south as light precipitation ends
from west to east. Not expecting any major impacts though.

Temperature-wise, low-level thickness values will support 60s
once again Tuesday. Wednesday will feature a wide temperature
range, with 40s across central Kansas in wake of the cold front,
and upper 60s to near 70 degrees possible across southern Kansas
ahead of the approaching cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018

The large-scale pattern will support dry weather Thursday through
Saturday, as an upper trough deepens across the western CONUS.
Temperatures Thursday in wake of the cold front will be cooler in
the 50s, although increasing thickness along with strengthening
southerly winds will support daytime readings climbing well into
the 60s by Saturday. Thereafter, confidence is low surrounding the
timing and magnitude of shortwaves ejecting east/northeast out of
the western longwave trough, although consensus favors low
precipitation chances by Sunday-Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1039 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy tracking into the mid
Mississippi Valley with strong zonal flow setting up over the
Plains for Mon. This will allow lee troughing to strengthen and
bring gusty south winds by Mon afternoon, especially for areas
west of I-135. May see a brief period of light fog over se KS late
tonight, but not expecting any IFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018

Will issue a red flag warning for Russell, Barton, Lincoln and
Ellsworth counties for this afternoon, due to stout/gusty south
winds, above normal temperatures and relative humidity values
dropping below 20 percent. The grassland fire danger is on the
marginal side for red flag/critical conditions, but wanted to
paint a seamless picture with surrounding forecast offices. Beyond
today, weather conditions will support elevated fire weather
conditions Tuesday, Friday and Saturday. While red flag/critical
conditions are not expected any of these days, very high grassland
fire danger is possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    62  40  61  46 /   0   0  30  20
Hutchinson      63  39  62  42 /   0   0  20  20
Newton          61  40  60  44 /   0   0  20  20
ElDorado        62  40  61  45 /   0   0  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   64  41  61  47 /   0   0  50  30
Russell         63  37  67  34 /   0   0  10  10
Great Bend      62  38  66  35 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          63  40  65  39 /   0   0  10  20
McPherson       63  40  62  42 /   0   0  20  20
Coffeyville     64  39  62  49 /   0   0  50  60
Chanute         62  39  62  47 /   0   0  40  50
Iola            62  39  62  47 /   0   0  30  50
Parsons-KPPF    63  39  62  48 /   0   0  40  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
KSZ032-033-047-048.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
357 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-262200-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
357 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Patchy fog is possible after midnight for the Oklahoma border
counties of southeast Kansas. Visibilities could be reduced as low
as one mile.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong and gusty south winds and low humidity will support very
high grassland fire danger Monday afternoon, generally along and
northwest of a line extending from Wellington to Eureka. A few hours
of extreme fire danger is possible across parts of Russell and
Barton counties. Please refer to the Fire Weather Watch statement
for details.

A few thunderstorms are possible along and east of the Kansas
turnpike Tuesday afternoon and evening. The risk for strong or
severe storms is low.

Patchy fog is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday morning across
central Kansas. Some freezing drizzle is also possible north of
I-70.

Additional isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm activity is
possible across eastern Kansas Wednesday afternoon and evening. A
few strong storms cannot be ruled out, although widespread severe
weather is unlikely.

A snow and rain mix is possible across central Kansas along the I-70
corridor Wednesday evening. Little if any snow accumulation is
expected.

Very high grassland fire danger is expected to return to many areas
on Friday and Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/