Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
312 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Storm chances are expected to increase across the region this
afternoon and evening, persisting through tonight. One area of
focus will be across portions of southern/southeast Kansas, on the
northern fringe of a convectively-induced mid-level impulse (MCV)
moving east/southeast across Oklahoma. Another area of focus will
be across portions of central and east-central Kansas in the
vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary.

Current thinking is thunderstorm chances associated with the OK
MCV will impact southern/southeast Kansas now through about 8 PM,
with chances increasing across central/east-central Kansas toward
6-7 PM and persist into the overnight hours in vicinity of the
frontal boundary. The highest storm coverage will probably be
along/south of I-70, and along/east of I-135, amidst slightly
cooler mid-level temperatures and better upper forcing. Storm
coverage should be more on the isolated side generally west of
I-135. Ample instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and
unseasonably strong deep layer shear will support a handful of
strong to severe storms, capable of large hail and damaging winds.
Additionally, rich low-level moisture and associated above normal
precipitable water values will support pockets of very heavy rain
and flooding.

Other than a few lingering showers/storms far southeast Kansas
Friday morning, building large-scale subsidence and low-level high
pressure will support quiet weather through Saturday, with
seasonable temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Model consensus continues to support increasing chances for
widespread showers/thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday
night or early Monday, as another unseasonably strong upper low,
currently just off the Pacific Northwest Coast, moves slowly over
Mid-America. While a handful of strong to marginally severe storms
cannot be ruled out during this time frame, thinking the greatest
threat will be locally heavy rainfall given the above normal
precipitable water values, relatively poor mid-level lapse rates,
and the slow-moving nature of the upper low.

Behind this system, Monday-Wednesday look to bring a little taste
of fall, as an upper impulse diving southeast across the Midwest
allows relatively cool Canadian air to filter south into the
region. High temperatures look to be in the low 80s for many
areas, with overnight lows in the 50s-low 60s. A gradual warming
trend is expected beyond Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase later this
afternoon and evening across the region. Thinking the greatest
coverage will be across eastern Kansas, mainly along/south of I-70
and along/east of I-135. The strongest activity will be capable
of large hail, damaging winds and frequent lightning.
Additionally, pockets of very heavy rain are likely. Covered this
threat with VCTS. Storm chances should end from northwest to
southeast later tonight, with quiet VFR conditions and light
north/northeast winds Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  90  68  90 /  40  10   0   0
Hutchinson      67  88  65  89 /  40  10   0   0
Newton          68  89  66  88 /  50  10   0   0
ElDorado        68  89  66  88 /  50  20   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   70  90  67  89 /  40  20  10   0
Russell         65  88  64  88 /  30   0   0   0
Great Bend      65  88  64  89 /  30   0   0   0
Salina          67  89  66  90 /  40   0   0   0
McPherson       67  88  65  89 /  40  10   0   0
Coffeyville     70  90  68  89 /  50  30  10  10
Chanute         69  89  67  89 /  50  30  10   0
Iola            68  88  67  89 /  50  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    69  89  68  89 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...ADK

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