Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
113 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

The current MCSs over middle TN and north AL will likely have shifted
into central AL and GA by 00Z, although trailing convection and stratiform
precip may continue into this evening as well. Will adjust PoP last
minute to account for this. Further redevelopment later tonight is
unlikely at this time.

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

The upper ridge will be building over the central and lower OH valley
Friday and shifting into the OH/PA area Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper
low will be developing, perhaps enhanced by the current MCS/MCV
moving southeast through our region now. This will produce widespread
convection, mainly to our south and southeast. Will maintain at least
low PoP, mainly during the daytime hours, but confidence is rather
low.

Our main impact weather will be excessive heat, mainly for our
northwest AL counties (the Shoals). After coordination with OHX, will
extend the current Heat Adisory through Saturday afternoon. Heat
index values of around 105 degrees is expected in these areas.
Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s this evening due to the rain,
but then will likely only dip into the middle 70s Friday night. Some
urban area will remain the 80s much of the night, with very high dew
points persisting during this period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 502 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

The extended portion of the forecast will begin with the forecast
area located within a region of weak steering currents between a
strong 500-mb high over the northern mid-Atlantic region, a weaker
ridge over the southern Plains, and an inverted mid-level trough in
the vicinity of the northeastern Gulf coast. Although global
deterministic and ensemble model guidance exhibits temporal
variability normal for this time range and season, a consensus of
the solutions suggests that the inverted trough axis will retrograde
across the region on Monday-Tuesday, around the base of a
strengthening high over the eastern Plains.

Large scale ascent related directly to the existence of the trough
will be rather weak, but the relative minimal in subsidence should
support scattered-locally numerous showers and thunderstorms in the
very moist airmass (PWAT values in the 1.8-1.9 inch range) that will
be in place over the TN Valley. This activity will be strongly tied
to the diurnal warming cycle, with highest POPs during the daylight
hours and only a slight chance of lingering convection during the
00-03Z periods. With forecast soundings depicting weak lower-middle
tropospheric wind fields and seasonably high values of CAPE, the main
threats with any storms will be brief gusty winds, lightning and
locally heavy rainfall.

During the period from Tuesday-Wednesday, the inverted trough will
advance further westward and away from the region and we will
experience an increasing influence from a ridge extending from the
mid-MS Valley into the western North Atlantic. The coverage of
diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be reduced this period, and
mainly confined to far western portions of the CWFA. With the ridge
displaced to our north and stronger deep-layer easterly flow over the
TN Valley, highs will remain in the u80s-l90s, with lows in the
u60s-l70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Band of very strong to severe thunderstorms will impact both KHSV
(18-19Z) and KMSL (19-20Z). Wind gusts may exceed 50kt, but have
conservative estimates of 40-45kt in the TAFs at this time. Vsby
could easily drop to 3/4sm or less in +RA with these thunderstorms.
After this area of thunderstorms passes, VFR weather should develop.
There will remain a chance of redevelopment of thunderstorms early
this evening, but the probability remains too low to include at this
time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ005>010-016.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ001>004.

TN...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...17

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
844 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-290445-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
844 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Thunderstorm coverage and intensity will increase this afternoon as
a complex of storms pushes southward from middle Tennessee. Damaging
wind gusts will be the highest threat. Storms will end from
northwest to southeast this evening.

Prior to the onset of precipitation, locations in northwest Alabama
may see heat index values briefly reach the 105 to 107 degree range.
A Heat Advisory has now been issued for Lauderdale, Colbert,
Franklin and Lawrence counties through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day, with perhaps a
slightly higher coverage on Sunday and Monday as a weak upper level
disturbance moves westward across the outlook area.

Dangerous heat index values in the 105 to 110 degree range will be
possible across much of northwest and north central Alabama
tomorrow,
with these values confined to only portions of northwest Alabama on
Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Formal activation of storm spotters and emergency management
personnel is not anticipated at this time. However...timely reports
of strong winds and hail will be greatly appreciated.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
120 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0104 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE SCOTTSBORO        34.67N 86.03W
06/28/2018                   JACKSON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN REPORTED AT COLLEGE ST,
            SCOTTSBORO,AL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
144 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELKMONT                 34.93N 86.97W
06/28/2018  E65 MPH          LIMESTONE          AL   PUBLIC

            65 MPH WING GUSTS AND PEA SIZED HAIL
            REPORTED AT ELKMONT, AL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE ELKMONT            34.91N 86.94W
06/28/2018                   LIMESTONE          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN REPORTED AT NEW GARDEN RD
            ELKMONT,AL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
146 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELKMONT                 34.93N 86.97W
06/28/2018  E65 MPH          LIMESTONE          AL   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM
            ELKMONT. 65 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZED
            HAIL REPORTED AT ELKMONT, AL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
215 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELKMONT                 34.93N 86.97W
06/28/2018  M62 MPH          LIMESTONE          AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 MILE N OF ELKMONT. 62 MPH WIND. 6 INCH
            TREE TOPS/LIMBS ARE SNAPPED.

&&