Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Austin County, TX, Brazoria County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Chambers County, TX, Colorado County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Galveston County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Harris County, TX, Houston County, TX, Jackson County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Madison County, TX, Matagorda County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Polk County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Walker County, TX, Waller County, TX, Washington County, TX, Wharton County, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1217 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/

Today conditions will feel like spring only to get slapped in the
face with reality that it is the warm up before another freeze.
Temperatures are in the 50s and should reach low/mid 60s most
areas. MLK Day is shaping up to be one to enjoy outside before
rushing to the store to grab milk and bread.

All joking aside, arctic front is on its way located from the
Ozarks down through central Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle.
High pressure of ~1052mb over Montana will be pushing into the
northern Plains behind the front by Tuesday morning. Broad
positive tilt trough continues to develop on water vapor imagery
with upper low over the Great Lakes and vorticity max/jet streak
coming down through the Plains. Front should push through the area
late tonight into Tuesday morning. We are still monitoring new
model data for winter precipitation development. The 12Z NAM and
GFS seem to be hinting at freezing temperatures occurring sooner
in the day. We are not sure how this may impact our current winter
weather advisory or how this affects precipitation types, but
there will be some adjustments for the afternoon forecast. Early
analysis shows quite a bit of frontogenesis through 925-850mb and
850-700mb layers so mesoscale precip banding is a growing concern.
The real trick is timing these precip bands versus the intrusion
of dry air from the north through the boundary layer. This may
determine when precip may end on Tuesday.

Overpeck

&&

.AVIATION...
Still generally quiet/VFR across SE TX so far this afternoon...but
changes are expected later this afternoon/tonight with the passage
of a strong arctic cold front. Will be starting off with VCSH/SHRA
from the north (CLL) from 00-02Z with CIGS lowering to MVFR...then
going south with these TAF trends during the evening/overnight hrs.
One of the main issues with this system looks to be type/timing of
the wintry precipitation as the cold air sweeps down into the area.
Did keep it mostly SN for locations CXO northward, then FZRA/PL/SN
mix for our central sites (IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX). Additionally, strong/
gusty north winds to prevail during the latter part of this cycle.
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      64  30  32  20  38 /  20  60  50  20  10
Houston (IAH)              64  40  41  24  41 /  20  30  50  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            64  47  48  29  41 /  10  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday
     for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...
     Burleson...Chambers...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...
     Grimes...Harris...Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...
     Matagorda...Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...
     Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
509 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-161300-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
509 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A strong cold front will push through the area late tonight with periods
of rain beginning overnight. Some of the rain could transition over
to a wintry mix before sunrise up north where the falling temperatures
approach the freezing mark.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Temperatures will fall throughout the day on Tuesday with areas of rain
gradually changing over to a wintry mix from north to south as the
day progresses. Little to no accumulation is anticipated at this time.
However, if the accumulation risk grows or travel hazards increase,
a Winter Storm Watch or a Winter Storm Warning might be needed.

Cold temperatures are expected Tuesday night in the wake of the front,
with lows reaching the upper teens to around 20 up north and in the
upper 20s at the coast. Any remaining water from Tuesday's activity
could freeze and create additional ice issues. A Hard Freeze Warning
and a Wind Chill Advisory might be needed for portions of the area.
Please keep up with the latest forecasts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation might be needed late tonight through Tuesday night.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-161300-
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Galveston Bay-Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
509 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A strong cold front will push off the coast Tuesday morning with strong
north winds and building seas developing in it's wake. A Gale Watch
remains in effect Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, and
a Gale Warning might be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation might be needed Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning.