Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
612 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.AVIATION...
An MCS over SW LA is slowly sagging to the SW and there could
still be some impact at some of the eastern TAF sites but weak
capping and a pocket of slightly drier air will work against
convection holding together tonight. VFR conditions expected
through 06z with some brief MVFR ceilings after 09z. Another
strong disturbance will approach on Monday and this feature will
bring parts of the area scattered showers and thunderstorms.
43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front is very slowly sagging southward into the area this
afternoon and has just about reached College Station as of 3 PM.
A few short-lived showers and thunderstorms have popped up along
and ahead of the boundary so far this afternoon, and coverage is
expected to pick up some later this afternoon into this evening.
AMDAR soundings suggest there is still some capping remaining over
the area, but if/when we are able to overcome that, the atmosphere
is pretty ripe for some stronger storms to develop. Inverted-V
soundings and DCAPE near 1000-1400 J/kg indicate that gusty winds
will be the primary threat with any stronger storms that do
develop. SPC continues to have most of the area outlooked in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather today and tonight. A swath of PW
values near 2.0 inches along and ahead of the front could help
produce some locally heavy rainfall with these storms as well, but
overall coverage should be scattered enough to preclude a
significant heavy rainfall threat. Showers and thunderstorms
should die off overnight.

The cold front is expected to stall out over the area overnight
tonight and may serve as a focus for an additional round of
showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. As with today, inverted-v
soundings indicate gusty winds will be possible again with any
stronger storms that are able to develop. Another round will be
possible sometime around early Tuesday morning as a shortwave
rotates across the ArkLaTex region. For now, it looks like most of
it should be concentrated to the NE of the region, but the timing
and placement of the shortwave could scoot better coverage towards
our area.

After that, the upper level ridge begins to build back in across
Texas. Some of the models want to hint at some light PoPs (20%
ish) on and off through the rest of the period, but the forecast
was left dry for now as 590+ dm heights should be able to squash
any development.

11

MARINE...
Light southwest to west winds will prevail tonight and tomorrow...
mainly in response to a weak cold front moving into inland regions
of SE TX. This boundary is not expected to move into the bays/near-
shore waters, but will act as a focus for widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms that could move into the marine areas (thru Mon).
This line is then forecast to weaken/move back north by Tues, with
generally light S/SE winds redeveloping and persisting through the
rest of this week. Not anticipating any Advisory/Caution Flags for
the next several days.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  93  74  95  75 /  20  30  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              76  93  75  95  76 /  30  30  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            81  91  81  92  81 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...43

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>438-041200-
Austin-Brazoria Islands-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-
Coastal Galveston-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-
Coastal Matagorda-
Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM-
Colorado-Fort Bend-Galveston Bay-
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-Grimes-Houston-
Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Madison-Matagorda Bay-Matagorda Islands-
Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Polk-San Jacinto-Southern Liberty-
Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Wharton-
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A weak front sagging southward into the area is expected to bring
some showers and thunderstorms to the area with the best chance
probably coming from the mid afternoon to the early to mid evening
hours. Some of this activity might have the potential to become
strong or severe. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall appear to
be the main severe weather threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation might be needed this afternoon through this evening.

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