Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A weak upper level disturbance will approach SE TX this evening
and this feature may serve as a catalyst for scattered showers and
storms. So much is dependent on the capping inversion and whether
the cap holds or can break. SPC has expanded the slight risk for
severe storms into Houston, Trinity and Polk counties and has
brought the marginal risk down to Spring Creek. Will carry chance
PoPs this evening over the northeast zones where risk for strong
storms is highest and taper PoPs lower to the southwest. At this
time, feel capping inversion will hold but confidence is low.
Low pressure in the lee of the Rockies will move east tonight. A
dry line over West Texas will also move slowly east tonight and the
two features will eventually phase and and serve as a focus for
scattered showers late tonight into very early Monday. The front
will clear the coast around 15z and much drier air will filter
into the region in the wake of the boundary. Sea fog will again be
possible over the near shore waters and adjacent bays tonight.

High pressure will build into the plains on Monday and very dry
air will be present over the CWA. RH values will likely fall below
20 percent over much of the region. Winds will be strongest over
the northwest zones and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
areas generally north of a Columbus to Hempstead to Madisonville
line for Monday afternoon. A secondary surge of cooler air will
bring an increase in northwest winds on Tuesday but high temperatures
will be cooler and RH values will be higher so the risk for fire
weather should decrease a bit.

Rest of the week into next weekend looks nice and quiet. Surface
high pressure will settle over SE TX on Wednesday and move east
of the area on Thursday. Onshore winds will return on the back
side of the retreating high and low level moisture will gradually
increase. The upper flow stays mainly W-NW through the week as
weak upper level ridging expands over Texas. A gradual warming
trend is expected toward the end of the week with maybe some light
warm air advection showers on Fri/Sat. 43

&&

.MARINE...
A slight strengthening and veering to this recently weak onshore
flow tonight into early Monday morning. A weak cold frontal passage
is slated for early to mid Monday morning. Just downstream of this
front there will be periods of returning sea fog...locally dense.
Areawide visibilites will likely dropping to under 2 miles to
locally under a mile through the overnight hours across the
nearshore Gulf waters...bays and local intercoastal waterways. A
secondary frontal passage early Tuesday morning will veer winds
around to the west northwest and strengthen them to sustained
Caution levels...Advisory in gust...through Wednesday morning (over
the far offshore waters). Backing high pressure moving into the
lower Mississippi River Valley at mid week will swing winds around
to onshore by late Wednesday. 31

.FIRE...
The passage of two cold fronts within the next 48 hours...both early
tomorrow and on Tuesday morning...will advect in a much drier
northerly air mass. Antecedent conditions will be of
moderate/elevated fire weather danger as northern county 100 hour
fuel moisture (grasses) is around 15% or slightly under. A Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for the northwestern counties of our
forecast area from late Monday morning through the afternoon hours.
Northerly winds will be slightly stronger on Tuesday but...with
relatively cooler ambient temperatures...relative humidities will be
slightly higher. Thus...Monday afternoon's lowest %RHS are out-of-
phase with Tuesday's stronger winds behind the reinforcing front. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      62  82  48  70  46 /  20  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              69  85  50  72  50 /  30  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            68  82  57  71  59 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for the following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...
     Grimes...Madison...Waller...Washington.

GM...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
326 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-192030-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
326 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight
northeast of a Madisonville to Livingston line as a weak upper
level disturbance moves across the state. The primary severe
weather hazard will be large hail. A capping inversion is in
place, and if the cap holds, storms will NOT develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Dry air will move into Southeast Texas on Monday and humidity
levels will fall below 20 percent. Elevated fire weather
conditions will be possible as west winds increase to 15 to 20
mph. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Monday afternoon for
areas northwest of a Columbus to Hempstead to Madisonville line.

Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening if strong storms
develop.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-192030-
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Galveston Bay-Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
326 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Sea fog will be possible tonight and visibility could drop below
a mile at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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