River Flood Warning 47, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1159 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Nearly stationary line storms across the Caldwell-College
Station-Huntsville to Groveton line. Overall trend is slight
weakening this last hour but the grounds there are very wet after
all of this rainfall. Band being fed by nearly linear moist flow
over the outflow boundary. PW remains high in a narrow band
feeding into this but the good news is the guidance slows the flow
into the feature over the coming 6 hours. Daytime heating tomorrow
will likely reignite storms over this area. Dual Pol estimates
show wide swath of 3" with a band of 5-6.5"...legacy is hail
contaminated. Flash flooding threat to continue tonight across the
general area mentioned above.
45
&&

.AVIATION...
Impacts from TSRA across the CLL/UTS terminals through 11z then
expect a lull before heating quickly reignites storms in the these
areas. VCTS/VCSH across these terminals more or less through the
next 20 hrs. Further south expect MVFR ceilings to expand
southward and with 1500-2500ft deck through 10-12z. Have limited
development of shra/tsra for IAH southward given the strong cap in
place. Cold front looks like it is track for IAH around 15-21z
Monday...winds should back Monday morning prior to the fropa.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Convection along/near the stationary boundary is continuing to sag
south into the CWA this evening. The thinking is that the activity
will be weakening as it moves further into SE TX. Current grids do
look to be on track, so only minor tweaks were made for the update
at this time. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018/

A line of discrete storm cells firing up in southwest-to-
northeast fashion downstream of a ragged band of severe
thunderstorms traveling east through northeast Texas. Tornado
Watch 414 is in effect through 8 PM for our extreme northeastern
counties of Madison, Houston and Trinity. The cells that have
traveled through Colorado County this afternoon have exhibited
deep, albeit weak, rotation with the main threat from these storms
being hail to the size of quarters. Lower level veering of winds
will turn updrafts and keep this tornadic threat alive through the
remainder of the daylight hours. Quite the tight onshore gradient
south of the warm "slash" stationary boundary draped across north
central Texas that is producing areawide robust 10 to 20 mph
winds. Despite these winds there has been enough sun to warm many
back up into the upper 80s. As the remnants of Sergio travels out
of northeastern Texas as an MCS late tonight, the 1030-ish surface
high over the northern Rockies will aid in pushing a decent cold
front through the region on Monday. In the meanwhile, Sunday's
weather will again be very warm (middle to upper 80s) with the
greatest rain chances occurring across our far northern counties,
or in the vicinity of this weak surface boundary that will provide
the needed focus for scattered -TSRA activity.

A cold front is forecast to travel across the region on Monday.
The backing cooler and drier air mass will be very shallow in
nature, likely less than 3 or 4 thousand feet (sub 85H) in depth.
This will create an overrunning situation that will persist over
several days; periods of light rain with spotty showers the
majority of the work week. If you prefer a touch of Seattle in
your weather, then next week will be a winner for you! As the 85H
front hangs back over north and central Texas...southwestern
winds riding up and over entrenched near surface northeasterlies
will create overcast, wet and cool conditions as head into the
second half of October. Northern communities will remain in the
50s all day with a small differential between diurnal extremes as
overnights cool into the upper 40s. Daytime readings in the 60s
and overnights falling to the low to mid 50s by morning (around
60 at coast). This raw and wet weather will likely hang around
through the next frontal passage timed for next weekend. So, high
POPs for low QPF and, after experiencing 4 to 6 degree above
normal average temperatures during the first half of October,
southeastern Texas temperatures will fall to much below
average(low 70s is the norm, forecasting upper 50s). 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      73  88  57  58  51 /  60  40  50  70  80
Houston (IAH)              75  89  69  71  60 /  20  20  20  70  60
Galveston (GLS)            80  88  77  78  68 /  20  10  20  70  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for the following
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
     Peninsula.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 AM CDT Sunday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...
     Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
     to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235>238-300-141115-
Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Houston-
Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Madison-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Polk-
San Jacinto-Southern Liberty-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
611 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe storms for areas north and west
of Houston. The primary area of an isolated severe storm will be
from Wharton to College Station. The main threat will be straight
line wind damage but a weak tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A cold front is expected to push into the area Monday with showers
and thunderstorms along it. Severe weather is not expected with
these storms although a few strong storms may be possible on
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

GMZ350-355-370-375-141115-
Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM-
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM-
611 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Southerly winds are expected to increase tonight and small craft
exercise caution or advisories may be needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A cold front should push off the coast late Monday into Tuesday
with increasing northerly winds behind it. Small craft advisories
may be needed for rough conditions behind the front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

TXZ214-313-335>338-141115-
Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Coastal Harris-
Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-
611 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Southerly winds should increase today and tonight. This may push
tide levels higher along western and northern portions of
Galveston Bay and through Matagorda Bay. Coastal flood advisory
may be needed if low lying areas begin to flood during high tides.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A cold front should push off the coast with strong northerly winds
behind it Monday night into Tuesday. Thunderstorms may accompany
the front but should be below severe levels.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

TXZ436>438-141115-
Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
Matagorda Islands-
611 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Southerly winds should increase today and tonight. This may push
tide levels higher to between 1.5 to 2 feet by this evening into
tonight. This means coastal flooding may be possible during high
tides this afternoon and tonight. A coastal flood watch is in
effect for the Gulf facing beaches of Bolivar Peninsula and
Galveston Island. Coastal flooding and wave run up may extend
further down the coast. Rip currents may also be strong along the
beaches today into Sunday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The potential for coastal flooding, wave run up and rip currents
will be possible through Sunday into Monday until a cold front
pushes off the coast. The front should allow for strong northerly
winds behind it and small craft advisories will be needed for the
coastal waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1115 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     FLOOD            MIDWAY                  31.03N  95.75W
10/13/2018                   MADISON            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADWAYS NEAR BURNS RD AND SH 21 IMPASSABLE

1050 PM     FLOOD            KURTEN                  30.79N  96.26W
10/13/2018                   BRAZOS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER ON ROADWAYS NEAR FM2038 AND DEMOCRAT ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1800186
EVENT NUMBER HGX1800187

41

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1236 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018

TXZ164-179-140615-
Polk TX-Trinity TX-
1236 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1236 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Apple Springs, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Apple Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3102 9506 3119 9512 3126 9489 3123 9486
      3121 9486 3118 9485 3116 9485 3115 9486
      3113 9480 3111 9475 3111 9472 3109 9466
      3110 9465 3109 9464 3109 9462 3108 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 0536Z 255DEG 21KT 3113 9501

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