Wind Advisory 10, NWS Honolulu, HI

686 
WWHW70 PHFO 111339
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
339 AM HST Sun Feb 11 2018


HIZ028-111445-
/O.CAN.PHFO.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-180211T1600Z/
Big Island Summits-
339 AM HST Sun Feb 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Honolulu has cancelled the Wind
Advisory.

Winds on the Big Island summits have dropped below advisory
levels.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1006 AM HST Sat Feb 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy north winds will continue today with dry conditions. Look
for winds to weaken a bit tonight as a trough to the northeast
works its way towards the islands. This trough will bring an
uptick in shower activity over windward and mauka areas. A cold
front and upper level trough will approach from the northwest
early next week, once again increasing the chance for clouds and
showers statewide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Wind observations from the CFHT-Gemini and UKIRT telescopes on
Mauna Kea show warning level winds being experienced at the
summits. A check of the GFS and ECMWF model 600 mb winds show
these stronger winds persisting through the day with a bit of a
decline tonight. Have replaced the Wind Advisory with a High Wind
Warning for the Big Island Summits through tonight.

A surface low with an associated trough remains to the northeast
of the islands, and satellite shows plenty of low level clouds
associated with the system. Precipitable water (PW) overnight in
the soundings was 0.73 inches at Lihue and 0.58 inches at Hilo.
Satellite derived PW shows an increase with this batch of clouds
that will about double PW over the islands. This will bring PW
back closer to climatological normal for February. With this
moisture coming in from the northeast, expect an uptick in shower
activity to more typical amounts focused over the windward and
mauka areas. Will likely be tweaking the forecast for the PoPs
and winds for tonight and tomorrow based on the latest model runs,
but not expecting any significant changes to the current forecast.

As this feature moves over the islands over the 36 hours or so,
expect the breezy winds to taper off. Another cold front is about
1000 miles northwest of Kauai this morning and moving towards the
islands. Winds will take on a southerly component with the new
work week ahead of this front. As the front moves in from the
northwest early next week, expect shower activity to increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET Tango will remain in effect today for moderate low-level
turbulence over and immediately S of the islands, due to locally
strong N winds. No other AIRMETs are anticipated today. VFR
conditions will prevail, except for ISOL MVFR conditions over the
SE portion of the Big Island.

Low-level winds will diminish overnight, becoming light and
variable Sunday, as a trough to the NE moves over the area,
likely allowing the cancellation of AIRMET Tango. Increased low-
level moisture associated with the trough will likely fuel an
increase in SHRA, leading to greater coverage of MVFR VIS/CIG
later tonight, mainly along N and E facing slopes and coasts,
which may necessitate AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are dropping across the western portion of the
main Hawaiian islands, allowing for cancellation of the Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) for waters west of Oahu. The SCA remains in
effect for remaining waters through this afternoon. Winds and seas
will continue to decrease into early next week.

A northwest swell will continue to lower gradually through
tonight. However, a moderate size northwest swell is expected to
fill in tonight and Sunday. A slightly larger, reinforcing northwest
swell is expected Monday with a second reinforcement Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Oahu
Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County
Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo
Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island
Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.

&&

DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...Birchard
MARINE...TS