Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Honolulu, HI

440 
WGHW70 PHFO 100652
FFSHFO

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
852 PM HST FRI NOV 9 2018

HIC003-100656-
/O.CAN.PHFO.FF.W.0072.000000T0000Z-181110T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Honolulu HI-
852 PM HST FRI NOV 9 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

Oahu Warning Point reports debris on Kamehameha Highway near Kahana 
Valley from a rockslide has been cleared. Rainfall rates have 
lowered across the warning area from Ahuimanu to Kahuku. 

LAT...LON 2164 15792 2163 15793 2153 15784 2150 15785
      2146 15784 2144 15780 2139 15784 2164 15801
      2166 15792

$$

Gibbs

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
424 PM HST Fri Nov 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front just west of Kauai will move down the island chain
tonight through Sunday. Passing showers will accompany the frontal
passage with drier and cooler weather following in its wake. A
trade wind weather pattern can be expected during the first half
of next week as high pressure passes by north of the state. Winds
will become lighter later in the week with an uptick in shower
activity becoming a possibility.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A northeast thru southwest oriented front is currently seen on
satellite imagery just west of Kauai. Moisture and instability out
ahead of the front is producing some light to moderate showers
over Kauai and Oahu with isolated light showers seen elsewhere.

The front is forecast to move over Kauai this evening, reach Oahu
tonight and early Saturday, Maui county on Saturday, and the Big
island late Saturday and Saturday night. Passing showers will
accompany the frontal passage especially over windward and mauka
areas. Winds are rather light east of the front with strengthening
north to northeast winds behind the front.

Cooler and drier air will fill in behind the front. However leftover
moisture along with orographic lifting will likely allow for some
light showers to fall over some windward and mauka areas. Most
leeward locations will remain rather dry into the first part of
next week. Breezy trade winds can be expected during the first
half of next week as high pressure passes by north of the area.

By Wednesday and Thursday, the high will be positioned far
northeast of the area. Trade winds will become a bit lighter as
the pressure gradient relaxes over the area. Models indicate there
may be an increase in moisture later in the week. This would
likely cause an uptick in shower activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers are increasing in coverage around Kauai and Oahu
this afternoon ahead of an approaching front, which may result in
brief MVFR conditions, AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is
in effect for Kauai and its surrounding waters, though Oahu may
need to be added later this afternoon. Winds will continue to increase
out of the north-northeast around Kauai this afternoon as the
front passes.

Light east-northeast flow and will prevail across the state this
afternoon, with a few leeward areas experiencing sea breezes.
Winds will increase and shift out of a more northerly direction
this evening through Sunday as the front moves down the island
chain. Expect the front to reach Oahu later this evening. Brief
periods of MVFR conds in clouds and showers could accompany this
front and additional areas may need to be added to AIRMET Sierra
as it progresses.

&&

.MARINE...
A front, reaching Kauai, will continue to move southeast through
the weekend. Fresh to strong north to northeasterly winds will
fill behind the front, Kauai this afternoon, and Oahu later this
evening.

The Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to cover all coastal
waters through Sunday afternoon, due to the combination of
increasing winds and a 12 second northerly swell filling in from a
gale low north of the area. The north swell is filling in a
little above predicted, and has led to the issuance of a High Surf
Advisory along north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, and
Oahu, and the north facing shores of Molokai and Maui. Surf is
expected to peak Saturday and hold into Sunday, before gradually
lowering. A small northwest swell is expected to fill in Monday
with a larger reinforcing north- northwest swell expected Tuesday
through midweek. This reinforcement will likely support advisory-
level surf again for exposed north and west facing shores by
Tuesday night.

A moderate long-period southwest swell should continue to fill in
tonight, peak Saturday at heights around the summer average, then
gradually decline into early next week.

Winds will shift to a more typical trade wind direction Sunday
night into early next week, potentially holding in the fresh to
strong category as a ridge of high pressure noses southeast over
the state.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Niihau-Kauai
Windward-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Oahu
Koolau-Olomana-Molokai-Maui Windward West-Maui Central Valley-
Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kaiwi Channel-
Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea
Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward
Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters.

&&

DISCUSSION...Burke
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Eaton