Alert archive / Maine / Wind Advisories in 2018
Wind Advisory 2, NWS Gray, ME
NWS Gray, ME issued this wind advisory at Mar 1, 2018, 3:24 PM EST for 6 counties in Maine; Hillsborough County, Rockingham County, Strafford County, New Hampshire. It took effect at Mar 2, 2018, 9:00 AM EST. It was in force for 13 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 1, 2018, 3:24 PM EST (20:24 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 2, 2018, 9:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Mar 2, 2018, 9:35 PM EST
- In force
- 13 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Gray, ME
Counties Cumberland County, ME, Knox County, ME, Lincoln County, ME, Sagadahoc County, ME, Waldo County, ME, York County, ME, Hillsborough County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH
The radar
The Portland,ME radar (KGYX), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Gray, ME (KGYX), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 26 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 908 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 29 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 132 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
263 WWUS71 KGYX 012024 NPWGYX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gray ME 324 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING... .A powerful coastal storm will develop off the southern coast of New England Friday. To the north, a strong easterly low level jet will form. As warmer, maritime air pushes inland this may allow stronger wind gusts to mix down. The easterly winds favor the Seacoast of New Hampshire and coastal York County for the strongest potential wind gusts, up to 60 mph. Along the coast of western Maine from Portland northward, stronger wind gusts are likely especially along the immediate coast. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph can be expected. MEZ023-NHZ014-020430- /O.UPG.KGYX.HW.A.0001.180302T1200Z-180303T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KGYX.HW.W.0001.180302T1400Z-180303T0500Z/ Coastal York-Coastal Rockingham- Including the cities of Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery, Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Hampton Falls, North Hampton, and Seabrook 324 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Gray has issued a High Wind Warning, which is in effect from 9 AM Friday to midnight EST Friday night. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect. * Winds...Northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * Timing...Strongest winds are expected to develop Friday morning. Strong easterly wind gusts may continue into late Friday evening. * Impacts...Strong wind gusts and a saturated ground may lead to downed trees and limbs, resulting in power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. && $$ MEZ024>028-020430- /O.NEW.KGYX.WI.Y.0002.180302T1400Z-180303T0500Z/ Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo- Including the cities of Portland, Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin, Whitefield, Dresden, Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland, Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast, Northport, Searsmont, and Lincolnville 324 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Gray has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 9 AM Friday to midnight EST Friday night. * Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Timing...Strongest winds are expected to develop Friday morning. Strong easterly wind gusts may continue into late Friday evening. * Impacts...Strong wind gusts may lead to downed limbs, resulting in power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 30 to 39 mph...or wind gusts 46 to 57 mph...are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ Legro
5 follow-up statements
143 WWUS71 KGYX 020315 NPWGYX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gray ME 1015 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING... .A powerful coastal storm will develop off the southern coast of New England Friday. To the north, a strong easterly low level jet will form. As warmer, maritime air pushes inland this may allow stronger wind gusts to mix down. The easterly winds favor the Seacoast of New Hampshire and coastal York County for the strongest potential wind gusts, up to 60 mph. Along the coast of western Maine from Portland northward, stronger wind gusts are likely especially along the immediate coast. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph can be expected. MEZ023-NHZ014-021115- /O.CON.KGYX.HW.W.0001.180302T1400Z-180303T0500Z/ Coastal York-Coastal Rockingham- Including the cities of Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery, Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Hampton Falls, North Hampton, and Seabrook 1015 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... * Winds...Northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * Timing...Strongest winds are expected to develop Friday morning. Strong easterly wind gusts may continue into late Friday evening. * Impacts...Strong wind gusts and a saturated ground may lead to downed trees and limbs, resulting in power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. && $$ MEZ024>028-021115- /O.CON.KGYX.WI.Y.0002.180302T1400Z-180303T0500Z/ Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo- Including the cities of Portland, Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin, Whitefield, Dresden, Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland, Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast, Northport, Searsmont, and Lincolnville 1015 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... * Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Timing...Strongest winds are expected to develop Friday morning. Strong easterly wind gusts may continue into late Friday evening. * Impacts...Strong wind gusts may lead to downed limbs, resulting in power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 30 to 39 mph...or wind gusts 46 to 57 mph...are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$
595 WWUS71 KGYX 020820 NPWGYX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gray ME 320 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT... .A powerful coastal storm will develop off the southern coast of New England today. To the north, a strong easterly low level jet will form. As warmer, maritime air pushes inland this may allow stronger wind gusts to mix down. The easterly winds favor the Seacoast of New Hampshire and coastal York County for the strongest potential wind gusts, up to 60 mph. Along the coast of western Maine from Portland northward as well as the rest of the coastal plain and interior southeastern New Hampshire, stronger wind gusts are likely. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph can be expected. MEZ023-NHZ014-021630- /O.CON.KGYX.HW.W.0001.180302T1400Z-180303T0500Z/ Coastal York-Coastal Rockingham- Including the cities of Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery, Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Hampton Falls, North Hampton, and Seabrook 320 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... * Winds...North 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * Timing...Winds are expected to increase this morning, with the strongest winds likely this afternoon and evening. * Impacts...Strong wind gusts and a saturated ground may lead to downed trees and limbs, resulting in power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. && $$ MEZ018-019-NHZ010-012-013-015-021630- /O.EXA.KGYX.WI.Y.0002.180302T1400Z-180303T0500Z/ Interior York-Interior Cumberland-Strafford-Eastern Hillsborough- Interior Rockingham-Western And Central Hillsborough- Including the cities of Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington, Berwick, New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, Gorham, Bridgton, Barrington, Rochester, Dover, Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Manchester, Pelham, Nashua, Salem, Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Exeter, Amherst, Milford, Mont Vernon, Goffstown, Peterborough, Sharon, and Weare 320 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... The National Weather Service in Gray has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 9 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight. * Winds...North 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Timing...Winds are expected to increase this morning, with the strongest winds likely this afternoon and evening. * Impacts...Strong wind gusts may lead to downed limbs, resulting in power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 30 to 39 mph...or wind gusts 46 to 57 mph...are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ MEZ024>028-021630- /O.CON.KGYX.WI.Y.0002.180302T1400Z-180303T0500Z/ Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo- Including the cities of Portland, Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin, Whitefield, Dresden, Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland, Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast, Northport, Searsmont, and Lincolnville 320 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... * Winds...Northeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Timing...Winds are expected to increase this morning, with the strongest winds likely this afternoon and evening. * Impacts...Strong wind gusts may lead to downed limbs, resulting in power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 30 to 39 mph...or wind gusts 46 to 57 mph...are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$
273 WWUS71 KGYX 021618 NPWGYX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gray ME 1118 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT... .A powerful coastal storm will develop off the southern coast of New England today. To the north, a strong easterly low level jet will form. As warmer, maritime air pushes inland this may allow stronger wind gusts to mix down. The easterly winds favor the Seacoast of New Hampshire and coastal York County for the strongest potential wind gusts, up to 60 mph. Along the coast of western Maine from Portland northward as well as the rest of the coastal plain and interior southeastern New Hampshire, stronger wind gusts are likely. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph can be expected. MEZ023-NHZ014-030030- /O.CON.KGYX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180303T0500Z/ Coastal York-Coastal Rockingham- Including the cities of Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery, Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Hampton Falls, North Hampton, and Seabrook 1118 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... * Winds...North 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * Timing...Winds are expected to increase this morning, with the strongest winds likely this afternoon and evening. * Impacts...Strong wind gusts and a saturated ground may lead to downed trees and limbs, resulting in power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. && $$ MEZ018-019-024>028-NHZ010-012-013-015-030030- /O.CON.KGYX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180303T0500Z/ Interior York-Interior Cumberland-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc- Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-Strafford-Eastern Hillsborough- Interior Rockingham-Western And Central Hillsborough- Including the cities of Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington, Berwick, New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, Gorham, Bridgton, Portland, Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin, Whitefield, Dresden, Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland, Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast, Northport, Searsmont, Lincolnville, Barrington, Rochester, Dover, Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Manchester, Pelham, Nashua, Salem, Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Exeter, Amherst, Milford, Mont Vernon, Goffstown, Peterborough, Sharon, and Weare 1118 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... * Winds...North 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * Timing...Winds are expected to increase this morning, with the strongest winds likely this afternoon and evening. * Impacts...Strong wind gusts may lead to downed limbs, resulting in power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 30 to 39 mph...or wind gusts 46 to 57 mph...are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$
809 WWUS71 KGYX 021956 NPWGYX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gray ME 256 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TONIGHT... .A powerful coastal storm well south of New England will continue to produce strong gusty winds through the evening across coastal Maine and southeast New Hampshire... MEZ023-NHZ014-030600- /O.CAN.KGYX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180303T0500Z/ /O.EXB.KGYX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Coastal York-Coastal Rockingham- Including the cities of Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery, Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Hampton Falls, North Hampton, and Seabrook 256 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Gray has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect until 1 AM EST Saturday. The High Wind Warning has been cancelled. * Winds...North 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * Timing...Winds are expected to be strongest through this evening. * Impacts...Strong wind gusts may lead to downed limbs, resulting in power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 30 to 39 mph...or wind gusts 46 to 57 mph...are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ MEZ019-022100- /O.CAN.KGYX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180303T0500Z/ Interior Cumberland- Including the cities of New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, Gorham, and Bridgton 256 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Gray has cancelled the Wind Advisory. Winds will continue gusty at times through the night but will remain below the wind advisory criteria. $$ MEZ018-024>028-NHZ010-012-013-015-030600- /O.EXT.KGYX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Interior York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox- Coastal Waldo-Strafford-Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham- Western And Central Hillsborough- Including the cities of Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington, Berwick, Portland, Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin, Whitefield, Dresden, Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland, Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast, Northport, Searsmont, Lincolnville, Barrington, Rochester, Dover, Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Manchester, Pelham, Nashua, Salem, Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Exeter, Amherst, Milford, Mont Vernon, Goffstown, Peterborough, Sharon, and Weare 256 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * Winds...North 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * Timing...Winds will be strongest through this evening. * Impacts...Strong wind gusts may lead to downed limbs, resulting in power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 30 to 39 mph...or wind gusts 46 to 57 mph...are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$
442 WWUS71 KGYX 030235 NPWGYX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gray ME 935 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 MEZ018-023>028-NHZ010-012>015-030345- /O.CAN.KGYX.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Interior York-Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln- Knox-Coastal Waldo-Strafford-Eastern Hillsborough- Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham- Western And Central Hillsborough- Including the cities of Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington, Berwick, Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery, Portland, Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin, Whitefield, Dresden, Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland, Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast, Northport, Searsmont, Lincolnville, Barrington, Rochester, Dover, Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Manchester, Pelham, Nashua, Salem, Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Exeter, Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Hampton Falls, North Hampton, Seabrook, Amherst, Milford, Mont Vernon, Goffstown, Peterborough, Sharon, and Weare 935 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Gray has cancelled the Wind Advisory. It will continue to be windy overnight, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph, but the winds will remain below advisory levels. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gray, ME wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Mar 1, 10:44 AM EST, 4 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 1, 10:44 AM EST, 4 hours 40 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1044 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will settle south of the region today
as low pressure develops off the mid Atlantic coast. Low
pressure will quickly intensify as it meanders off the coast
south of New England tonight through Friday. Low pressure will
gradually shift off to the east Saturday through Sunday. High
pressure will build in from the west Monday through Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Minor changes to adjust for latest conditions.
Previously...
A short wave trough passing over the region early this morning
will move well to the east of the coast during the day today.
any sct shower activity associated with this trough will end
early on this morning. Otherwise, sunshine should come up and
allowing another warm day...with highs in the 50s at most
locations and 40s in the mountains. We will continue to melt
that snowpack.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
***Major Coastal Storm Expected Beginning Tonight***
Update...With a peek at the early 12z model suite...I have
enough confidence to issue a winter storm watch for parts of
SWrn NH. Low level thermal profiles are already close to snow
without any added effects of dynamic cooling from things like
upslope flow into the Monadnocks. Strong lift could pretty
easily erase 1 or 2C at H8 that the 01.12z NAM is showing.
Despite some model differences in surface low location and
QPF...the mid level low centers are in fair agreement across the
range of models. I wanted to get the word out early about
accumulating snow...with any more refined changes to the
forecast coming later this afternoon.
Previous discussion...The ball will get rolling on a
significant low pressure system tonight as a short wave trough
moves toward the Mid Atlantic coast. 24 hours ago we were
looking at a deterministic model consensus of 2-4" of qpf across
southern zones. Luckily, the 00z deterministic runs have backed
off further to the south, likely sparing our forecast area from
a myriad of high- end impacts. The 00z deterministic ECMWF is
even further south, with less than 3/4 inch of QPF across the
southernmost zones - and this makes sense given the track of the
southeastward moving closed low to the south of New England.
Even still, there should be coastal flooding impacts, some heavy
wet snow in the Monadnocks, and gusty winds across much of the
forecast area. However, flooding rains are not expected at this
time. In fact, many central and northern zones may escape with
less than a quarter inch of precipitation.
As the short wave trough approaches the Mid Atlantic coast
tonight, WAA processes will begin to spread precipitation across
southwestern zones after midnight from SW to NE. Initially,
mainly across southwestern and western NH, temperatures should
have cooled enough to support snow or a mix of snow and sleet.
Further toward the coast, toward morning, mainly rain is
expected (possibly mixed with sleet and snow) as boundary layer
through 850mb temperatures will be a bit too warm to allow for
all snow.
The main question is how far north does the strong
forcing for ascent and subsequent heavy precipitation and
associated dynamic cooling progresses. At this time, it appears
it will be confined to southernmost NH, quite possibly near the
NH/MA border. As boundary layer temperatures warm a bit during
the day on Friday, lower elevations are expected to see rain.
The exception will be higher elevations such as above 1,000 ft
in the Monadnocks of NH where wet snow may fall for the much of
the day. Contemplated issuing a winter storm watch for western
Hillsborough County NH as well as Cheshire, but warning snow
amounts should be confined to a relatively small area - mainly
the higher elevations of the Monadnocks. Not out of the question
to see highest elevations pick up 5-10" of snow there while a
few miles away at lower elevations see little accumulations.
Winds will increase on Friday as the low pressure system
intensifies south of New England. Since we will be well south of
the low track, our forecast area should be spared of widespread
damaging winds. However, we do expect widespread wind gusts of
30-40 MPH Friday into Friday night with wind advisories a
possibility. Slightly stronger winds are expected on the
Seacoast of NH northward through the immediate coast of Maine. A
high wind watch remains in effect for the Seacoast and coastal
York County Maine where a few gusts 50-60 MPH will be possible.
A decision on whether a high wind warning or advisories will be
necessary will be made today.
We do expect the precipitation shield to rapidly move south and
eventually out of our forecast area Friday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cyclonic flow will continue over the area on Saturday as low
pressure continues to slowly drift off to the east. Strong
northeasterly winds will ease somewhat during the day but at
the same time will transport low level moisture from the
maritimes into the region for much of the weekend. High
temperatures on Saturday will be close to normal in most
areas ranging from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south.
Winds will continue to diminish Saturday night and Sunday as
high pressure gradually builds in from the west. Will once
again see low level cloudiness but also a little more in the
way of sunny breaks. Lows Saturday night will bottom out in
the mid 20s to lower 30s and highs on Sunday will be pretty
close to Saturdays numbers.
Blocking pattern will dominate weather in the northeast for
Monday and Tuesday as an upper level ridge shifts in from
the west. Looking for mostly sunny skies both days with
temperatures very similar to weekend readings. Looking
for lows in the 20s and highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Forecast confidence heads south for midweek and beyond as
another complex system sets up to the west and heads east
for Wednesday and Thursday. Big differences in upper level
pattern and resulting surface low tracks so will likely
start with SB pops and trim those back to chance for the
latter periods of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions expected today. Snow and rain are
expected to move in from southwest to northeast after midnight
tonight reducing cigs and vsbys to MVFR or lower across
southernmost NH. These lower conditions will get into southern
ME Friday before all areas go VFR Friday night. Northerly winds
at the SFC are expected to gust between 30-40 MPH Friday with
higher gusts along the immediate coast.
Long Term...
MVFR to VFR ceilings both Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Storm watches remain in effect for the ocean waters
Friday and Friday night with gale watches continuing for the
bays. Strong winds and large seas are expected during this time
which will pose a danger to mariners.
Long Term...
Gales likely on Saturday....diminishing to SCA's on Sunday.
SCA's likely on Monday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The highest astronomical tides of the month will occur Fri
morning...with high tide 11.2 feet in Portland Harbor at 1107
AM. Prolonged northeasterly flow and large...building seas may
lead to storm surge values up to 1 or 2.5 ft. This could cause
moderate flooding - especially on the Seacoast. In addition
splash-over and erosion will be likely...especially along the
coast south of Portland. In the Hampton area water levels may
have a hard time receding between tides...with strong Ely flow
keeping water piled up in the bay. High water may continue thru
low tide Friday.
Fri night and even into Sat noon high tides will be significant
as well. The surge may actually be higher then despite winds
gradually backing with time. We have continued with storm surge
2 to 3 feet along the coast. Ekman Spiral will help to pile
water up along the coast and nearshore waves will be building to
at least 10 to 15 feet. It is this long period swell that
continues into the weekend that could cause problems during the
high tide cycles. There may be significant splash-over and
erosion even after the main system moves out to sea. Expect
total water levels to be higher then the models forecast as long
as the swell continues.
A coastal flood watch has been issued for the three tide cycles
with the greatest potential for flooding from Portland south.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
afternoon for MEZ023-024.
High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
MEZ023.
NH...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for NHZ007-011-015.
Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
afternoon for NHZ014.
High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
NHZ014.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for
ANZ151-153.
Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
NEAR TERM...LegroHazardous weather outlook, Mar 1, 3:16 PM EST, 8 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gray ME 316 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 NHZ007-011-015-022030- Sullivan-Cheshire-Western And Central Hillsborough- 316 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for New Hampshire, central New Hampshire and southern New Hampshire. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MEZ023-NHZ014-022030- Coastal York-Coastal Rockingham- 316 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EST SATURDAY... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Maine and southern New Hampshire. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Warning. High Wind Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MEZ024-022030- Coastal Cumberland- 316 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EST SATURDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Maine. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Warning. Wind Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MEZ025>028-022030- Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo- 316 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EST SATURDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Coastal Flood Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-NHZ001>006-008>010-012-013-022030- Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford- Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York- Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo- Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll- Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford- Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham- 316 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine, southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New Hampshire. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. A coastal storm is expected to develop tonight and Friday south of New England. Confidence is increasing on the storm track and temperatures at this time and will likely result in minimal precipitation impacts to the region. Some snow will be possible in higher elevations of the White Mountains and into far western Maine. Winds will gust 30-40 MPH Friday into Friday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ANZ150-152-154-022030- Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM- Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM- Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out 25 NM- 316 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ANZ151-153-022030- Penobscot Bay-Casco Bay- 316 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Gray, ME issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 3:10 PM EST | Storm Warning | GYX | 36 hr | |
| Mar 1, 3:24 PM EST | High Wind Warning | GYX | York | 24 hr |
| Mar 1, 3:42 PM EST | Coastal Flood Warning | GYX | Cumberland, York | 46 hr |
| Mar 1, 3:42 PM EST | Coastal Flood Advisory | GYX | Knox, Lincoln, Sagadahoc, Waldo | 46 hr |
| Mar 1, 10:15 AM EST | Winter Storm Watch | GYX | Cheshire, Hillsborough, Sullivan | 17 hr |
Nearby
Wind Advisories in Maine, 2018Wind Advisories in New Hampshire, 2018Every wind advisory in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.