Special Weather Statement, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1023 AM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Humid conditions continue today as an upper level trough spins
over the northern Great Lakes, sending a slow moving cold front
toward our area. Expect some showers and thunderstorms to form
mainly over western areas this afternoon. Some of the storms
could bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Thunderstorm
activity will weaken and spread east overnight, with another
round of showers and storms possible on Saturday before the
front finally moves through. Once the front moves through, we
will see a bit drier air moving in with sunshine expected into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM Update...
Morning fog has finally cleared mid coast and southern interior
sections of Maine late this morning and expect remaining patchy
stratus to gradually dry up through noon. Have updated zones to
drop dense fog advisory headlines.

Attention will turn next to northwest zones where approaching
front will initiate convection during the early to mid afternoon
time frame. SPC has much of the area in marginal risk for severe
with slight chance nosing into southwest New Hampshire. Main
threat with these storms will be strong winds but a secondary
problem will be heavy rainfall which may pose a `flash flood
risk in any training cells.

Have adjusted area temps/tds/sky/rh and apprnt temp grids based
on current obs but no major changes planned to current forecast
attm.

7AM UPDATE...
Still some areas of fog as the sun has started its initial
mixing. Will hold on to the Dense Fog Advisory for a bit longer.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
Upper level trough over the Great Lakes today will send an
embedded shortwave trough northeast across New York and
northern New England. With a warm, humid air mass in place
across the area, we should see showers and thunderstorms forming
in the late morning to early afternoon, mainly over western New
England and possibly the higher terrain of New Hampshire and
northwest Maine. A southerly wind flow in the lowest level will
keep a cooling influence over the coastal plain of Maine (where
dense fog continues through early morning). This will limit the
surface-based instability here, keeping any convective activity
mainly to the north and west. Winds aloft increase out of the
south southwest up to about 40 KT at 500MB. This gives us some
moderate wind shear with some turning of the winds as well. As a
result, storms that do form could take the form of multicell
clusters and a few supercells. Damaging winds would be the
primary severe weather threat, though heavy rain will again be
possible. With the steering flow out of the SSW roughly
parallel to the frontal boundary, some training storms will be
possible, increasing the flash flooding threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The frontal boundary slowly moves into the area tonight, with
showers and storms having already formed along it and moving
east into New Hampshire and Maine overnight. Expect overall
convective coverage to decrease overnight with the loss of
surface-based instability. However, should still see some
showers and storms maintaining themselves overnight. Fog may
again form along the Midcoast overnight.

The front finally moves into and through the area on Saturday,
with an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
the addition of daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Any remaining convection will move offshore diminish quickly
Saturday night into early Sunday morning with high pressure
nudging in behind it. Dense fog will be a concern once again,
especially where it rained in the previous 24 hours, as dew
points begin to drop. Overnight temperatures will dip towards
the upper 50s in the mountains and the mid 60s along the coast.

A short wave trough will continue moving offshore Sunday into
Monday morning. Ridging builds in along the East Coast as the
mean trough digs into the central and southeastern CONUS by mid
week. A couple systems will bring weather to New England during
the work week, but for the most part it looks like a quiet and
seasonable period of weather.

High pressure and west winds at the surface will keep skies
sunny and low relative humidities in place initially during the
day Sunday and Monday, with temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower to mid 80s...with southern NH and southwest ME making a
run towards 87 or so. Southerly flow intensifies as a warm front
lifts north on Wednesday, making for more of a cloudy and muggy
day with slightly warmer temperatures south of the boundary.
Instability associated with this warm front and the attendant
short wave should be enough for some scattered stronger storms
in the afternoon and evening hours. A couple of frontal
boundaries will swing through towards the end of the week,
bringing additional chances for rain and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Early morning fog along the coastal plain of Maine
should burn off by mid morning. Rockland may hold on to the low
clouds into the early afternoon, with fog possibly moving back
in tonight there. Meanwhile, some scattered showers and
thunderstorms will form over western New England and may impact
western New Hampshire during the evening hours. The threat area
for thunderstorms moves eastward overnight and into Saturday.

Long Term...Expect mostly VFR through Tuesday. MVFR/IFR ceilings
should clear out in the evening Saturday as showers and
thunderstorms come to an end. LIFR conditions in dense fog is
likely however Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Long period swell is diminishing to at or below 5
FT, so the Small Craft Advisory has been dropped. Fog will
continue to be possible mainly over the cold near-coastal waters
just off the Midcoast right through Saturday.

Long Term...Fog, dense at times, will continue to be possible
over the waters, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
1253 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2018

NHZ002-271745-
Southern Coos-
1253 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN COOS COUNTY...

At 1253 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Gilman, or
near Bethlehem, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph...torrential rains and half inch hail are
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Berlin, Lancaster, Bethlehem, Carroll, Gorham, Dalton, Whitefield,
Randolph, Stark and Northumberland.

This also includes...
  Moose Brook State Park and Mount Cabot.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4461 7145 4440 7118 4430 7159 4433 7167
      4433 7170 4435 7171
TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 231DEG 21KT 4436 7161

ARNOTT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
121 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2018

NHZ007-011-271800-
Cheshire-Sullivan-
121 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHESHIRE COUNTY...

At 121 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Chesterfield to near Hinsdale.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph...torrential downpours and pea size hail
are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Keene, Jaffrey, Winchester, Dublin, Richmond, Harrisville, Nelson,
Marlborough, Gilsum, Hinsdale, Roxbury, Fitzwilliam, Troy, Sullivan,
Westmoreland, Swanzey, Surry, Chesterfield, Marlow and Alstead.

This also includes...
  Mount Monadnock.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4292 7252 4295 7253 4297 7248 4298 7246
      4300 7246 4300 7244 4303 7246 4312 7224
      4313 7204 4272 7211 4273 7246 4277 7249
      4277 7252 4278 7251 4281 7254 4287 7256
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 245DEG 15KT 4292 7247 4276 7246

ARNOTT