Snow Squall Warning 3, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
215 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Very cold air will be ushered into the region tonight in the
wake of an arctic front. This will likely mean a record cold
Thanksgiving day. High pressure will build in from the west
Thursday night then crest over the region on Friday. The high
will shift offshore Friday night and will hold there through
Saturday. Low pressure is expected to develop south of New
England and move northeast Saturday night and Sunday. This may
bring a mixed bag of precipitation to the area. Another system
will likely follow suit Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An arctic cold front moves through by early this evening.
Scattered snow showers and a few snow squalls accompanying the
front. Behind the FROPA gusty NW winds develop with clearing
across all downsloping areas with clouds and scattered snow
showers lingering in the mtns. Temps will plummet later tonight
and combined with the winds needed to issue a wind chill
advisoryfor the mtn areas of NH/ME due to wind chills reach
-20 to -29 degs. Went with the colder models for temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thanksgiving day will be a brutally cold day with record mini max
temps likely. A broad upper low that will produce a strong
cyclonic flow and also to usher in temps straight from the
arctic. Gusty Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will produce wind
chills more reminiscent of mid winter. Wind chill values of 5
below to 15 below for the mountains...and 5 above to 5 below
elsewhere. Actual air temperatures will max out in the single
numbers in the mtns and teens elsewhere. Clouds and scattered
snow showers will continue in the mountains while downsloping
areas become mostly sunny.

The brutal cold will continue into Thu night with dry conditions
but still some gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure crests over the region on Friday allowing for
diminishing winds and a bit warmer temperatures. Thereafter,
there are two potential systems of interest. The first continues
to be Saturday night and Sunday where low pressure is expected
to develop south of New England and move northeast. This is a
tricky situation with marginal temperatures profiles. Therefore,
we could see a mixed bag in many areas, with rain looking more
likely for southernmost zones. We'll continue to monitor that as
the situation remains fluid. The next system looks to be fairly
similar and would affect our region early next week. The weather
pattern continues to be very active.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through Thursday night/...VFR conditions variable to IFR
in scattered snow showers into the early evening then VFR
through Thu night except in the mountains and foothills where
MVFR conditions in sct -shsn continues. Stg gusty NW winds
expected.

Long Term...VFR Friday and Friday night followed by lowering
conditions late in the day Saturday with IFR expected Saturday
night into Sunday as low pressure brings a mixed bag of
precipitation to the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Thursday night/...Strong gales tonight into Thu
night...and may approach storm force in gusts outside the bays
at times by Thursday.

Long Term...Winds and seas rapidly subside Friday with high
pressure moving it. Fairly tranquil winds and seas expected
Saturday. Winds and seas once again increase late in the weekend
and early next week with at least two low pressure systems
slated to affect the waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     MEZ007>009.
NH...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     NHZ001>004.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ150>154.

&&

NEAR TERM...Schroeter/Marine
SHORT TERM...Schroeter/Marine
LONG TERM...Ekster

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
924 AM EST WED NOV 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     SNOW             5 WNW HOLLIS            43.65N  70.68W
11/21/2018  M6.0 INCH        YORK               ME   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 WSW EPPING            43.03N  71.08W
11/21/2018  M2.0 INCH        ROCKINGHAM         NH   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 SSE BOSCAWEN          43.29N  71.60W
11/21/2018  M3.7 INCH        MERRIMACK          NH   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             LAKEPORT                43.55N  71.47W
11/21/2018  M5.0 INCH        BELKNAP            NH   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 E TURNER              44.25N  70.18W
11/21/2018  M3.0 INCH        ANDROSCOGGIN       ME   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NNW NEW SHARON        44.67N  70.03W
11/21/2018  M2.2 INCH        FRANKLIN           ME   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NNE HAMPSTEAD         42.90N  71.17W
11/21/2018  M2.4 INCH        ROCKINGHAM         NH   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 WSW NEWCASTLE         44.03N  69.57W
11/21/2018  M4.5 INCH        LINCOLN            ME   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             MOOSEHEAD LAKE          45.58N  69.72W
11/21/2018  M1.8 INCH        SOMERSET           ME   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             4 SW WELLS              43.30N  70.64W
11/21/2018  M7.1 INCH        YORK               ME   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 ESE BIDDEFORD         43.49N  70.43W
11/21/2018  M4.0 INCH        YORK               ME   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 WSW OGUNQUIT          43.24N  70.63W
11/21/2018  M4.7 INCH        YORK               ME   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             WOLFEBORO               43.58N  71.22W
11/21/2018  M7.5 INCH        CARROLL            NH   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             6 NE PITTSBURG          45.11N  71.30W
11/21/2018  M2.5 INCH        COOS               NH   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             BRASSUA LAKE            45.67N  69.82W
11/21/2018  M3.0 INCH        SOMERSET           ME   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             DURHAM                  43.99N  70.06W
11/21/2018  M4.0 INCH        ANDROSCOGGIN       ME   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0730 AM     SNOW             RUMFORD  7SW            44.49N  70.66W
11/21/2018  M1.8 INCH        OXFORD             ME   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0750 AM     SNOW             4 WNW SEARSMONT         44.38N  69.26W
11/21/2018  M5.2 INCH        WALDO              ME   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 ESE BOSCAWEN          43.30N  71.58W
11/21/2018  M3.0 INCH        MERRIMACK          NH   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 E DANBURY             43.52N  71.82W
11/21/2018  M4.7 INCH        MERRIMACK          NH   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             WESTPORT                43.89N  69.71W
11/21/2018  M4.9 INCH        LINCOLN            ME   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             NORTH CONWAY            44.05N  71.13W
11/21/2018  M2.5 INCH        CARROLL            NH   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 ENE GREENVILLE        42.78N  71.78W
11/21/2018  M3.1 INCH        HILLSBOROUGH       NH   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 SSE LOWER WATERFORD   44.32N  71.91W
11/21/2018  M2.0 INCH        GRAFTON            NH   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0830 AM     SNOW             7 NNW VINALHAVEN        44.15N  68.88W
11/21/2018  M5.5 INCH        KNOX               ME   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0830 AM     SNOW             DOVER                   43.19N  70.87W
11/21/2018  M1.0 INCH        STRAFFORD          NH   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0845 AM     SNOW             MILFORD                 42.83N  71.66W
11/21/2018  M1.8 INCH        HILLSBOROUGH       NH   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0900 AM     SNOW             3 SSE KEZAR FALLS       43.77N  70.87W
11/21/2018  M2.5 INCH        YORK               ME   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1804501
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804502
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804503
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804504
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804505
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804506
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804507
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804508
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804509
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804510
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804511
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804512
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804513
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804514
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804515
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804516
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804517
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804518
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804519
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804520
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804521
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804522
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804523
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804524
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804525
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804526
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804527
EVENT NUMBER GYX1804528

AP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
136 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

MEZ007-008-NHZ001>004-211930-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Northern Grafton-Northern
Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Carroll-
136 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN OXFORD...WEST CENTRAL
FRANKLIN...COOS AND NORTHEASTERN GRAFTON COUNTIES...

At 135 PM EST, a snow squall was located along a line extending from
12 miles east of Pittsburg to near Lunenburg to near Barnet. Movement
was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this squall along with
very slippery travel. Visibilities will briefly drop to below one
quarter mile.

Locations impacted include...
Berlin, Littleton, Lancaster, Bethlehem, Colebrook, Lincoln,
Rangeley, Haverhill, Franconia, Andover, Carrabassett Valley, Errol,
Grafton, Dixville, Stratford, Mount Washington, Newbury Village,
Wells River Village, Woodstock and Guildhall.

This includes Interstate 93 between mile markers 99 and 131.

This also includes...
  Crawford Notch State Park, Franconia Notch, Umbagog Lake State
Park, First Connecticut Lake, and Kilkenny Ridge Trail.

Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this dangerous
snow squall. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads
are likely to lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until the
squall passes your location.

LAT...LON 4428 7206 4432 7203 4435 7182 4440 7179
      4441 7171 4449 7163 4448 7163 4450 7158
      4456 7160 4456 7156 4459 7154 4471 7160
      4511 7128 4506 7035 4438 7107 4397 7173
      4409 7205 4413 7203 4419 7206 4424 7205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 287DEG 28KT 4501 7115 4449 7167 4428 7207

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