Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
533 PM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move south through the region overnight.
High pressure will build in from the north on Tuesday and will
shift east into the maritimes Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Another cold front will move in from the northwest Wednesday
night and will gradually shift offshore on Thursday. High
pressure will build in from the west Thursday night through
Friday and will hold over the area on Saturday. Low pressure
will pass to the west of the region on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Update...Hot and humid air mass is fueling scattered
thunderstorms across Nrn New England. Across the North County
and into the Wrn ME mtns there is enough shear to support
organized storms. An area of severe thunderstorms has developed
across Coos County...and is expected to continue into adjacent
Wrn ME over the next couple of hours. It has exhibited a nice
bowed reflectivity structure at times...along with MARC
signatures embedded in the velocity. Convection allowing model
guidance suggests thunderstorm activity winds down after
sunset...but RAP mesoanalysis also extended the unstable
atmosphere well into the evening. It is possible that convection
just percolates after dark...albeit at sub-severe levels.

Previous discussion...The heat advisory will continue until 8
pm due to the high heat index values continuing into the early
evening. Also, ahead of an approaching cold front increasing
instability combined with heating and abundant low level
moisture has already developed a line of thunderstorms across
southern Quebec. This line is moving E-SE and is currently
moving into northern NH and the western mountains of ME and will
then move into central areas by later this afternoon. Southern
areas should be spared any showers but an isolated one can't be
ruled out. Conditions are marginal for severe storms over
northern and central areas but some gusty winds and torrential
downpours are expected. Will continue the enhanced wording for
strong storms into the evening hours for those areas.

By later this evening the convection will wind down as the front
moves through the area. Not much ventilation behind the front
so patchy mainly valley fog expected to develop as skies clear
and winds go mainly calm.

Used a blend of models for overnight lows which kept temps mild
in the mid 60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds south from Canada on Tuesday bringing
less humid air into the region. Not much cool air behind this
front and highs in southern zones will push well into the 80s.
Northern zones will see the most benefit from the cooler air
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

High pres remains over the area through Tue night with drier and
cooler conditions associated with the Canadian air mass finally
filtering further south into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models still forecasting the strong 500 MB wrn Atlantic ridge
to weaken toward the end of the week, allowing a 500 MB trough
to bump it equatorward, and allowing some cooler air into the
region Friday thru the weekend. But we start off the long term
Wed- Thu underneath the top of the ridge and still on the very
warm side.

Wednesday will start with some with the sfc ridge centered right
over the CWA, and flow will be weak, so some early onshore flow
is possible, but as the sfc ridge shifts offshore and upper
level ridge starts to get squashed by approaching trough,
should see S-Sw gradient flow develop in the afternoon, and this
will allow temps to warm into the 80s most everywhere. probably
low 80s on the coast and into central ME where the S-Sw will
keep things a touch cooler, but mid-upper 80s a good bet in
central and southern NH. Tds will also begin to creep up into
the mid to upper 60s during the afternoon as well.

The SW flow aloft should prevent any rad cooling outside of the
sheltered spots, and lows will run in the mid-upper 60s,
although a little cooler in the ME mtns, and on the mid-coast.
There's an outside chc for some coastal/fog and stratus late Wed
into early Thu.

Thursday will see the SW flow get enhanced just ahead of the
cold front, with a line of SHRA/TSRA moving from NW-SE across
the CWA probably from around midday in the N through the late
afternoon in the S. Ahead of the front it should get quite warm,
especially S of the mountains with 850 MB temps in the 16-18 C
range. So, highs will range from the mid to upper 70s in the
mtns close to 90 in the south. Once again Tds in the low 70s
will be possible which will pus interior parts of srn NH and SW
ME into heat adv criteria. The front may slow its progress
overnight and linger across or just S of the srn zones, which
would keep a threat of showers overnight here, ads well as mins
only in the mid 60s. To the N, cooler and drier should filter in
and allow mins in the 50s, in many spots.

Some signs that the front slowly creeps S out of srn New
England Friday, and that would linger some clouds in this areas,
especially in the morning. Highs will cooler, and close to
normal, generally ranging from around 70 in the N, to the mid to
upper 70s in the south.

The coolest air comes in for the weekend as the 500 MB trough
deepens to our east, and Saturday looks partly sunny with with
highs in the upper 60s, to the mid 70s in the south. This
actually pretty close to normal, although it doesn't seem that
way. Models differ on timing of low pressure passing to our
north on Sunday or Monday, which could bring rain to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR except MVFR in scattered TSRA 21z-03z north of
a KLEB-KIZG-KAUG line. Aft 06z patchy mainly valley fog develops
and burns off by 13z. VFR Tue-Tue night.

Long Term...VFR Wednesday. Chance for some coastal fog/stratus
Wed night into early Thu. Cold front will bring a line of
SHRA/TSRA through Thursday into Thursday evening. Then VFR Fri-
Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...No flags.

Long Term...Could see a short period of borderline SCA SW winds
late Wed night into thu morning.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ018-019-
     023>025.
NH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ006-008>010-
     012>015.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Legro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
1235 PM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

MEZ018-019-023-024-NHZ006-008>010-012>015-041645-
Interior York-Interior Cumberland-Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-
Southern Carroll-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Eastern Hillsborough-
Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
1235 PM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, southwest Maine, New
Hampshire, central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and
southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Heat and humidity returns for Thursday, and the heat index could
climb into the mid 90s again.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022-026>028-NHZ001>005-007-011-041645-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Androscoggin-Kennebec-
Interior Waldo-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-Northern Coos-
Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-
Sullivan-Cheshire-
1235 PM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine,
southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, central New
Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Heat Index values in the low 90s are expected today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Heat Index values in the low 90s are possible again on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ025-041645-
Sagadahoc-
1235 PM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ150>154-041645-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
1235 PM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
453 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

NHZ001-002-032130-
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-
453 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL COOS COUNTY...

At 452 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were moving into northern New
Hampshire between Colebrook and Stratford, moving southeast at 40
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Berlin, Lancaster, Colebrook, Errol, Stratford, Dixville, Guildhall,
Maidstone, Lemington, Columbia, Dummer, Milan, Stark, Wentworth
Location, Northumberland, Stewartstown and Randolph.

This also includes...
  Kilkenny Ridge Trail, Pontook Reservoir, Dixville Notch State Park,
Percy Peaks, and Mount Cabot.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4479 7157 4486 7155 4491 7150 4494 7152
      4497 7151 4488 7105 4477 7104 4461 7113
      4443 7136 4452 7160 4453 7158 4456 7159
      4456 7156 4459 7154 4460 7156 4464 7156
      4466 7158 4475 7163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 295DEG 33KT 4477 7143

Kimble

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
607 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW LANCASTER          44.48N  71.58W
09/03/2018                   COOS               NH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES, WIRES, POLES DOWN ON NH 135.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1803438

WATSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
617 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W ANDOVER             44.64N  70.81W
09/03/2018                   OXFORD             ME   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON EAST B HILL RD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1803439

WATSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
619 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE ANDOVER           44.67N  70.73W
09/03/2018                   OXFORD             ME   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON S ARM RD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1803440

WATSON