Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1221 AM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control over the region Sunday
through Thursday with temperatures well above normal. A cold
front will finally bring relief to the region on Friday and will
be followed by high pressure and cooler temperatures on the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Update...
Additional convection continues to form upstream embedded in the
northwest flow. Isolated severe potential continues per latest
conditions and coordination with SPC. Strongest cell remains
the split cell that is moving into Vermont this hour. Monitoring
an increased number of cells entering the western mountains of
Maine. Rainfall rates are increasing in a few locations and
currently monitoring for locally heavy rainfall.

A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued for the coastline from
Portland and points east where water temperatures are just
below 60 degrees. Have also added patchy fog to the overnight
forecast.

Prev Disc...
Convection is moving southwest with time this afternoon,
setting up isolated thunderstorms in the region. Overnight hours
the models are progging a significant convective system or MCS
moving out of Canada and into northern sections of New Hampshire
and Maine. Temps only drop into the lower 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Additional strong to severe convection is possible on Sunday as
thunderstorms move southeast around the periphery of the upper
level ridge. This will take the form of bowing structures and
short-lived supercells. Moisture is lacking never-the-less
winds are strong aloft. The real issue will be heat later on the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Very hot week on tap in the extended forecast as east coast
ridge remains in place for much of the week. Heights will peak
on Monday and temperatures will soar well above normal. Apparent
temps in the Connecticut Valley and much of southern New
Hampshire will top out between 95 and 100 degrees and heat
advisories will be needed in these areas. Remainder of the
forecast area will remain below these values. Weak gradient will
allow a sea breeze to quickly develop in coastal areas
providing some relief from the heat but not the humidity.
Looking for temperatures to fall back into the 70s during the
afternoon. Although an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out
in northern zones by late in the day as a shallow shortwave
approaches from the west...most of the region should see a dry
day due to a lack of a trigger.

Have included some low chance pops for northern zones Monday
night but shallow shortwave mentioned above forecast to flatten
out overnight as surface boundary drops south into northern
zones. Reminder of the forecast area will see a very warm and
muggy night. Lows will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Expecting even warmer temps on Tuesday as upper ridge holds
through the day. Looking for many areas away from the coast to
reach the 90s with mid to upper 90s in warmer portions of
southern New Hampshire and the Connecticut Valley. Lingering
boundary will settle into southern zones during the day and may
be enough to trigger afternoon convection but expect this
activity to be widely scattered.

More of the same for Wednesday and Thursday as upper ridge holds
over the area. Expect both days to feature highs in the lower
to mid 90s away from the coast with a continuing chance of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Relief is in sight on Friday as a cold front forecast to drop
south through the region during the day. Increasing shear and
good CAPE will make severe thunderstorms likely as this
boundary drops south through the afternoon. Will see slightly
cooler temperatures with highs ranging through the 80s to near
90. High pressure will build in behind the front for the weekend
bringing cooler and less humid weather.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short term: VFR with areas of MVFR/IFR tonight in showers and
thunderstorms. Areas of MVFR/IFR aft 06z Sunday in fog. Becoming
VFR throughout aft 13z Sunday.

Long Term...
Generally VFR Monday through Thursday with scattered areas of
MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsby in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Wind gusts to 20 kt overnight will allow for four
foot seas. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain well below SCA
thresholds.

Long Term...
No problems noted.

&&

.CLIMATE...
An extended period of hot weather will continue into
next week. With many people outdoors for the holiday we are
especially concerned with the heat and humidity. Here are some
facts:

In Concord, record highs include: 7/1 99 degrees in 1913, 7/2
98 degrees in 1966, 7/3 102 degrees in 1966, 7/4, 102 degrees in
1911, and for 7/5 101 degrees in 1911.

In Portland, record highs include: 7/1 93 degrees in 1971, 7/2
98 degrees in 1941, 7/3 95 degrees in 2002, 7/4, 90 degrees in
2010, and for 7/5 94 degrees in 1999.

In Augusta, record highs include: 7/1 92 degrees in 1971, 7/2
93 degrees in 1963, 7/3 94 degrees in 2002, 7/4, 93 degrees in
2002, and for 7/5 91 degrees in 2010.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Consecutive Days>=90F

Concord: Last time we saw 5 days or more in a row at or above
90 was 5 in 2013.

Concord: Last time we saw 6 days or more in a row at or above
90 was 6 in 2010.

Concord: Last time we saw 7 days or more in a row of at or
above 90 was 9 in 2002.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MEZ024>028.
NH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT Monday for
     NHZ001>003-005-007-008-011-012-015.
MARINE...None.

&&

JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
1133 PM EDT Sat Jun 30 2018

NHZ001>003-005-007-008-011-012-015-020345-
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Southern Grafton-
Sullivan-Merrimack-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
1133 PM EDT Sat Jun 30 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for New Hampshire, central New
Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected overnight. A few storms
may contain damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

A hot and humid air mass will continue in the region this weekend,
bringing a prolonged period of high heat and humidity. It is likely
that Heat Advisory criteria (heat index 95 degrees) will be exceeded
for portions of the area extending into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ023-NHZ014-020345-
Coastal York-Coastal Rockingham-
1133 PM EDT Sat Jun 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Maine and southern
New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected overnight. A few storms
may contain damaging winds and some hail late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A very warm and humid air mass will continue in the region this
weekend and into next week. However, there will be afternoon sea
breezes during at least the first few days of this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-NHZ004-006-009-010-013-020345-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Northern Carroll-Southern Carroll-Belknap-Strafford-
Interior Rockingham-
1133 PM EDT Sat Jun 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, central New
Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected overnight. A few storms
may contain damaging winds and some hail late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A hot and humid air mass will continue in the region this weekend,
bringing a prolonged period of high heat and humidity. It is likely
that Heat Advisory criteria (heat index 95 degrees) will be exceeded
for portions of the area next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ150>154-020345-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
1133 PM EDT Sat Jun 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No Hazardous Weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Areas of dense fog are possible over the waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ024>028-020345-
Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
1133 PM EDT Sat Jun 30 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine and
southwest Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected overnight. A few storms
may contain damaging winds and some hail late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

A very warm and humid air mass will continue in the region this
weekend and into next week. However, there will be afternoon sea
breezes during at least the first few days of this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
1251 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

MEZ008-009-013-014-021-010530-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Kennebec-Northern
Franklin-Central Somerset-
1251 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN KENNEBEC...SOUTH
CENTRAL SOMERSET AND SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 1251 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Phillips, or
12 miles north of Farmington, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waterville, Farmington, Fairfield, Oakland, Skowhegan, Madison,
China, Clinton, Belgrade, Kingfield, Phillips, Norridgewock, Benton,
Anson, Albion, Avon, Strong, Industry, Smithfield and Rome.

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 120 and 139.

LAT...LON 4436 6956 4481 7040 4496 7026 4461 6940
      4455 6942 4455 6939
TIME...MOT...LOC 0451Z 303DEG 34KT 4484 7024

JC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
1258 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

MEZ007-008-NHZ001-010530-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Northern Coos-
1258 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN OXFORD AND
NORTHEASTERN COOS COUNTIES...

At 1258 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles north of
Pittsburg, or 23 miles north of Colebrook, moving southeast at 45
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rangeley, Pittsburg, Clarksville, Adamstown, Parkertown, Lynchtown,
Lincoln Plantation, Lower Cupsuptic, Wentworth Location, Magalloway
Plantation, Parmachenee, Upper Cupsuptic and Richardsontown.

This also includes...
  First Connecticut Lake, Lake Francis State Park, Magalloway
Mountain, Second Connecticut Lake, and Third Connecticut Lake.

LAT...LON 4529 7127 4527 7126 4525 7123 4525 7120
      4524 7118 4525 7117 4524 7114 4501 7075
      4481 7102 4516 7143 4521 7140 4523 7143
      4524 7141 4523 7138 4525 7136 4527 7136
      4530 7130
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 315DEG 39KT 4521 7131

JC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
116 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

MEZ007>009-013-014-021-022-028-NHZ001-010600-
Northern Oxford-Interior Waldo-Southern Franklin-Southern
Somerset-Kennebec-Coastal Waldo-Northern Franklin-Central
Somerset-Northern Coos-
116 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
KENNEBEC...WALDO...WEST CENTRAL OXFORD...CENTRAL SOMERSET...SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN AND EAST CENTRAL COOS COUNTIES...

At 115 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 18 miles south of Billy-Jack Depot to
near Fairfield to 8 miles northwest of Canaan. Movement was southeast
at 40 mph.

Strong gusty winds over 40 mph and half inch hail can be expected in
some of these storms. Also, expect frequent lightning and locally
heavy downpours with poor drainage flooding possible.

Locations impacted include...
Waterville, Farmington, Belfast, Fairfield, Dexter, Colebrook,
Searsport, Pittsfield, Thorndike, Oakland, Skowhegan, China, Clinton,
Belgrade, Bingham, Errol, Blanchard, Rockwood, Unity and Seboomook.

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 125 and 156.

This also includes...
  Moose Point State Park, Mount Blue, Coleman State Park, Old Blue
Mountain, and Bemis Mountain.

LAT...LON 4588 6966 4587 6965 4588 6971 4576 6972
      4573 6981 4565 6970 4553 6978 4501 6962
      4507 6935 4473 6927 4473 6920 4464 6918
      4468 6896 4433 6884 4482 7113 4498 7154
      4503 7149 4464 6963 4597 7012 4598 6987
TIME...MOT...LOC 0515Z 297DEG 35KT 4598 7009 4462 6959 4507 7169

JC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
139 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

MEZ007>009-013-014-NHZ001-010630-
Northern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Northern
Franklin-Central Somerset-Northern Coos-
139 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN OXFORD...WESTERN
SOMERSET...FRANKLIN AND NORTHEASTERN COOS COUNTIES...

At 137 AM EDT, a  cluster of strong thunderstorms were located 12
miles northeast of Coburn Gore, moving southeast.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and
may cause localized flooding. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or
vehicle.

Locations impacted include...
Farmington, Jackman, Eustis, Coburn Gore, Rangeley, Madison,
Kingfield, Bingham, Carrabassett Valley, Pittsburg, Phillips,
Norridgewock, Canaan, Dixville, Weld, Anson, Embden, Avon, Dallas
Plantation and Clarksville.

This also includes...
  First Connecticut Lake, Saddleback Mountain, Sugarloaf Mountain,
Crocker Mountain, and The Bigelows.

These storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

LAT...LON 4557 6975 4462 6988 4501 7151 4521 7140
      4530 7128 4525 7123 4524 7115 4530 7110
      4535 7101 4534 7096 4523 7086 4543 7080
      4538 7064 4543 7063 4551 7072 4557 7069
      4567 7056 4573 7038 4580 7042 4592 7026
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 296DEG 54KT 4546 7057

MBC

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