River Flood Warning 3, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1009 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push offshore this morning as low pressure
tracks northeast along it. High pressure will build in from the
west tonight through Sunday and will hold over the area on
Monday. Low pressure will approach from the west Monday night
and will weaken as it moves east through the region Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Another area of low pressure will move up the
east coast Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM Update...
Quick update to adjust for current trends and ptype changes.
Very strong cold front passing through the region with
significant temperature changes over short distances.
Precipitation will continue for a couple more hours over central
and southern areas, however a dry slow will quickly enter the
region, bringing any light mix to an end.

Prev Disc...
Cold front front slowly sagging southeast into the region early
this morning. Temperatures already falling into the mid to upper
30s in northern and far western zones. Expect rain in these
areas to gradually transition over to a brief period of freezing
rain and sleet before going over to snow. Farther south and east
looking for rain to be heavy at times through mid morning before
colder air filters in from the north. Tail end of precipitation
in the south will likely change to a bit spotty sleet and
freezing rain and will end by early afternoon as scattered snow
showers. Toyed with the idea of dropping Winter Weather
Advisories in coastal and southern interior sections of Maine
but Guidance not performing well on timing of this cooler air
moving south so will stay the course for now. Temperatures
already 3 to 8 degrees cooler in the north than MAV/MET numbers.

In any case with the exception of the usual upslope areas in the
north expect precipitation to quickly wind down by early
afternoon with temps dropping through the remainder of the day.
May see a few sunny breaks in southern New Hampshire later this
afternoon but expect most of the forecast area to remain mostly
cloudy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Clouds will gradually diminish this evening and overnight as
high pressure builds in from the west. It will be back to the
deep freeze overnight as lows dip to zero to 10 below in the
north and zero to 10 above in the south.

Sunday looking sunny but cold as high pressure continues to
build in from the west. Highs will only reach 5 to 15 north and
15 to 25 south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A look at the forecast 500 MB pattern over NOAM show a trend
toward highly amplified flow toward the middle of the week, with
trough axis centered over the central CONUS. The flow flattens
after that trough maybe closes off and shifts NE toward the
maritimes. However, as the trough closes off and crosses New
England. it will likely bring a round of precip, which has a
very good chance of falling mainly as snow.

On Sunday night we will continue to see CAA on light N winds with
mainly clear skies.  The persistent N flow should prevent many areas
from decoupling, but those sheltered areas should be able to go calm
and temps will plummet.  So lows are expect to range from near -20
in the sheltered mountains valleys, and generally 10-to 15 below in
the mountains, to zero to five above along the coast, with colder
areas inland dropping below zero.

Monday will see a low develop on the stalled frontal boundary well
offshore, and although 00Z Euro brings a hundredth or two of QPF
over the coastal zones, hard to see it given the persistent N flow,
and the continued push of very dry air and TD depressions of 15-20F.

Still will likely see some cirrus or mid level clouds push N and W
into the coastal plain Monday into Monday night, with highs on
Monday only from the around 10-15 in the mountains to the low 20s
near the coast and in srn NH.

The next system will affect the CWA somewhere in the Tue-Thu range.
Models continue to show a lack of run-to-run consistency and
ensembles show a great deal of uncertainty as well /12Z euro sfc
low spread on Wed ranged from west of Bermuda to Syracuse NY, with
no clustering/.  So for now went with chc pops in that time frame,
although some agreement on timing in the Tue night to Wed night
range.  P-type looks to be mainly snow at this point but air mass
not that cold and is a smaller chance that a strong onshore flow co
ensemble with any stronger system could bring warmer air in near
the coast with some rain. Amounts are also uncertain at his point
given ensemble spreads /The operation Euro has been consistently
wetter compared to its ensembles/.

After this system moves through looks like we could see a warming
trend late in the week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsby through this morning...
gradually improving to VFR this afternoon. VFR tonight and
Sunday.

Long Term...Mainly VFR Sunday night into Tuesday. Could see some
MVFR in snow late Tue, but flight restrictions are more likely
Tue night into Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Have extended Gales Warnings through this morning.
Will likely drop Gales down to SCA's this afternoon.

Long Term...SCA will likely be needed Sunday into at least part of
Monday as N flow persists. After that winds should subside
through Wed.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ice jams have formed on many rivers in Maine and New Hampshire.
It is very difficult if not impossible to forecast when these
jams will break and move downstream and when they will form. We
are also seeing some ice movement in Maine. We will continue to
monitor area rivers for potential additional warnings.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch until noon EST today for MEZ012>014-018>028.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...Flood Watch until noon EST today for NHZ003>015.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     NHZ001>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ153.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ150>152-154.

&&

BM/NB/JC

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