Hurricane Local Statement 4034, NWS Guam

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1052 AM ChST Thu Nov 22 2018

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite shows Typhoon Man-yi passing by south of Guam, and a
band of showers and thunderstorms is across the Mariana Islands.
The buoys reveal combined seas of 9 to 11 feet composed mainly of
wind waves and swell from the typhoon.

&&

.Discussion...
The focus of attention remains Typhoon Man-yi and areas of
showers over the region. Weather conditions are at their worst
early this morning and conditions will be improving during the
day, then fairly dry weather is expected to develop over the
region.

&&

.Marine...
Buoys show combined seas at least 10 to 11 feet and strong winds
are expected to continue today. After the Tropical Storm Warning
is cancelled later this morning, Small Craft and Marine Weather
Advisories will be needed.

&&

.Tropical systems...
Typhoon Man-yi has raced by south of Guam this morning, currently
near 10N143E, and it is expected to continue moving quickly
toward the west-northwest or northwest, away from the Marianas.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
The southeastern end of a monsoon trough extends southeastward from
Typhoon Man-yi to south of Chuuk at 2N151E. Residual converging winds
north of this feature will maintain patchy showers and a few
thunderstorms near Chuuk thru tonight and Pohnpei until this evening.
Satellite microwave sounding data shows a mid-level drier air mass
over Kosrae and Majuro...and this air mass will also shift westward
over Pohnpei this evening, and Chuuk on Friday. Farther east of the
Date Line, a robust trade-wind convergence zone can be seen between
4N and 9N, stretching eastward from 173W to beyond 150W. This zone
will cross the Date Line toward the weekend and spread wet weather
from east to west across the region this weekend.

Residual southwest to south swell generated by Tropical Man-Yi will
maintain hazardous surf across Chuuk this morning before subsiding
below advisory levels later this afternoon. Surf across Pohnpei has
already fallen below hazardous levels earlier this morning.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Yap and Koror...
Typhoon Man-yi is about 335 miles east of Yap Proper this morning. It
is expected to pass north of Yap Proper late this afternoon and early
evening. Some of the outer rain bands southwest and south of Man-yi
will impact Yap with patchy showers and gusty winds thru this evening.
For Koror, subsidence farther southwest of Man-yi will provide fair
weather there this weekend. As Man-yi pulls farther north of Yap on
Friday, subsidence will also spread over Yap. During the weekend,
increasing trade-wind convergence will increase the chance of showers
near Yap.

Building north swell generated by Typhoon Man-yi passing to the north
will cause surf to rise above hazardous levels this afternoon. Fresh
winds and hazardous seas will also create hazardous conditions for
small craft thru tonight. Both winds and seas should begin to subside
on Friday.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...Tropical Storm Warning for GUZ001-002.

Marianas Waters...Tropical Storm Warning for PMZ151-152.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CHST Friday for PMZ153-154.

&&

Stanko/Chan/Ziobro