Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2018

Wind Advisory 6, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

March 14, 20187 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Mar 14, 2018, 3:01 PM EDT for 7 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Mar 14, 2018, 9:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 23 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 14, 2018, 3:01 PM EDT (19:01 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 14, 2018, 9:00 PM EDT
Expired
Mar 15, 2018, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
23 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Counties Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Madison County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Swain County, NC, Yancey County, NC

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 244 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2018-03-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2018-03-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -90 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1429 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-90 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
8 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

117 
WWUS72 KGSP 141901
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
301 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...VERY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW...

NCZ033-150315-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.180315T0600Z-180316T0000Z/
Avery-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, and Newland
301 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT
Thursday.

* LOCATIONS...Avery County.

* HAZARDS...Strong winds. Wind chill values of 0 to -10 will also be
  possible above about 5000 feet. 

* TIMING...Late tonight through Thursday. 

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds could blow down a few trees and power
  lines. Isolated to scattered power outages are possible. Travel
  will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are 
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially
for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ049-050-053-150315-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.180315T0600Z-180316T0000Z/
Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-
301 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Wind Advisory ABOVE 3500 FEET, which is in effect from 2 AM to
8 PM EDT Thursday.

* LOCATIONS...The high elevations of Buncombe, Mitchell, and 
  Yancey Counties.

* HAZARDS...Strong winds. Wind chill values of 0 to -10 will also
  be possible above about 5000 feet. 

* TIMING...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts in excess of 50 mph
  possible. Winds will be much lighter in the valleys through
  tonight. It is possible the advisory may be expanded to the
  lower elevations for tomorrow.  

* IMPACTS...Strong winds could blow down a few trees and power
  lines. Isolated to scattered power outages are possible. Travel
  will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are 
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially
for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
Lane
6 follow-up statements
088 
WWUS72 KGSP 142341
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
741 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...VERY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS THROUGH 
THURSDAY...

NCZ033-150745-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.180315T0100Z-180316T0000Z/
Avery-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, and Newland
741 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Avery County.

* HAZARDS...Strong winds. Wind chill values of 0 to -10 will also 
  be possible above about 5000 feet.

* TIMING...Tonight through Thursday.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds could blow down a few trees and power
  lines. Isolated to scattered power outages are possible. Travel
  will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult... 
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ049-050-053-150745-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.180315T0100Z-180316T0000Z/
Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-
741 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...The high elevations of Buncombe, Mitchell, and 
  Yancey Counties.

* HAZARDS...Strong winds. Wind chill values of 0 to -10 will also 
  be possible above about 5000 feet.

* TIMING...Tonight through Thursday.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Winds
  will be much lighter in the valleys through tonight. It is
  possible the advisory may be expanded to the lower elevations
  for tomorrow.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds could blow down a few trees and power
  lines. Isolated to scattered power outages are possible. Travel
  will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
968 
WWUS72 KGSP 150235
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1035 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...VERY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY...

NCZ033-151045-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180316T0000Z/
Avery-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, and Newland
1035 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Avery County.

* HAZARDS...Strong winds. Wind chill values of 0 to 10 below will 
  also be possible above 5000 feet.

* TIMING...Tonight through Thursday.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds could blow down a few trees and power  
  lines. Isolated to scattered power outages are possible. Travel 
  will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ049-050-053-151045-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180316T0000Z/
Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-
1035 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...The high elevations of Buncombe, Mitchell, and 
  Yancey Counties.

* HAZARDS...Strong winds. Wind chill values of 0 to 10 below will 
  also be possible above about 5000 feet.

* TIMING...Tonight through Thursday.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds could blow down a few trees and power
  lines. Isolated to scattered power outages are possible. Travel
  will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
330 
WWUS72 KGSP 150728
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...VERY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS TODAY...

NCZ048-051-052-151530-
/O.EXA.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180316T0000Z/
Madison-Swain-Haywood-
Including the cities of Luck and Waynesville
328 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING ABOVE
3500 FEET...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Wind Advisory ABOVE 3500 FEET, which is in effect until 8 PM
EDT this evening.

* LOCATIONS...The high elevations of the Tennessee border 
  counties.

* HAZARDS...Strong winds. Wind chill values of 0 to 10 below 
  will also be possible above about 5000 feet.

* TIMING...Tonight through Thursday.

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Above 5000
  feet, winds may occasionally gust up to 60 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ033-151530-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180316T0000Z/
Avery-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, and Newland
328 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Avery County.

* HAZARDS...Strong winds. Wind chill values of 0 to 10 below 
  will also be possible above 5000 feet.

* TIMING...Tonight through Thursday.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Above
  5000 feet, winds may occasionally gust up to 60 mph.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ049-050-053-151530-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180316T0000Z/
Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-
328 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...The high elevations of the Tennessee border
  counties.

* HAZARDS...Strong winds. Wind chill values of 0 to 10 below 
  will also be possible above about 5000 feet.

* TIMING...Tonight through Thursday.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Above 5000
  feet, winds may occasionally gust up to 60 mph.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
245 
WWUS72 KGSP 151514
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1114 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...VERY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...

NCZ033-152315-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180316T0000Z/
Avery-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, and Newland
1114 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Avery County.

* HAZARDS...Strong winds. 

* TIMING...Through early Thursday evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Above 
  5000 feet, winds may occasionally gust up to 60 mph.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ048>053-152315-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180316T0000Z/
Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Including the cities of Luck and Waynesville
1114 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...The high elevations of the Tennessee border 
  counties.

* HAZARDS...Strong winds. 

* TIMING...Through early Thursday evening.

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Above 5000 
  feet, winds may occasionally gust up to 60 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

PM
349 
WWUS72 KGSP 151919
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
319 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...VERY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS UNTIL THIS
EVENING...

NCZ033-160000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180316T0000Z/
Avery-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, and Newland
319 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Avery County.

* HAZARDS...Strong winds.

* TIMING...Through early this evening.

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ048>053-160000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180316T0000Z/
Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Including the cities of Luck and Waynesville
319 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...The high elevations of the Tennessee border 
  counties.

* HAZARDS...Strong winds.

* TIMING...Through early this evening.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
918 
WWUS72 KGSP 160001
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
801 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

NCZ033-048>053-160115-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180316T0000Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, 
and Waynesville
801 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds continue to diminish across the mountains this evening.
Therefore, the wind advisory has expired. However, gusty winds
will continue through midnight with the highest winds above 5000
feet.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Mar 14, 2:54 PM EDT, 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 14, 2:54 PM EDT, 7 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
254 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure continues over our region Thursday into Friday.
A warming trend will commence Thursday through Friday...before a
cold front brings showers and cooler temperatures
to the region to start the weekend. High pressure is expected to
build in from the north Sunday into Monday. Low Pressure will
approach from the west by Tuesday bringing showers and perhaps a few
storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
In response to depleting NW flow moisture and backing low level
flow, snow showers have tapered off to flurries, with skies quickly
clearing along the TN border this afternoon. NW winds will remain
gusty into the evening, but surface high pressure building into the
region from the Gulf Coast will allow winds to drop off somewhat
overnight in lower elevations, allowing for another cold night with
min temps in the neighborhood of 10 degrees below normal. The
exception to this will be across the high terrain, W/NW winds near
ridge top level forecast to accelerate to over 40 kts by daybreak
Thursday. This will be a warm advection, not-very-strong gradient/
low level jet scenario.  In other words, very gusty winds will
remain confined to exposed peaks and ridge tops until mixing deepens
Thu morning. We have decided to issue a Wind Advisory for areas
above 3500 ft from Buncombe County through the northern mtns.

Otherwise, there will be an abrupt end to the unseasonably cool
weather tomorrow, as heights build strongly upstream of quickly
departing upper trough, and downstream of high-amplitude/but
dampening ridge. Meanwhile, with surface high skirting by to our
south, a strong W/SW low level flow/deep mixing regime will develop
across the area. The result will be max temps about 20 degrees above
today's readings in most locations tomorrow afternoon, or several
degrees above climo (for the first time in about 10 days for many
areas). Dewpoint recovery is also anticipated in the SW flow regime.
However, critical RH values will likely be realized, mainly along
and near the I-85 corridor. (See Fire Wx discussion for details).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wed: Confluent upper flow behind the departing trough
will permit high pressure to build south from Canada through the
Ohio Valley early Friday. A baroclinic zone will begin to develop
on the southern flank of this high. Low pressure in the lee of
the Rockies will activate the boundary as a warm front over the
Mississippi Valley, but the best way to describe the boundary as it
weakly pushes into our area early Friday is as a cold front. This
feature will be associated with increased low-level moisture. The
flow over the mountains will remain northwesterly and some
upslope-driven precip may develop there Friday morning. Most likely
this will not occur until temperatures have warmed several degrees
above freezing, so minimal wintry precip is expected. NAM/GFS
both depict a weak vort max drifting atop the boundary during the
afternoon, so we will permit PoPs to expand into the Piedmont. Max
temps are expected to be a few degrees above normal Friday.

Forecast confidence goes down Friday night into Saturday. The models
suggest that as an upper ridge progresses across the Southeast,
a weak sfc high sets up over the Mid-Atlantic region, while
the aforementioned boundary advects north as a warm front. PoPs
increase Friday night following the trend in moist isentropic
upglide, waning a bit Saturday as the better upglide sets up to
our north. Originally it had appeared likely in-situ CAD would
develop Saturday, but now it seems less certain with PoPs possibly
diminishing during the day, and most guidance indicating strong sfc
warming and moistening. It still looks reasonable to advertise cool,
below-normal temps in the NC NW Piedmont, but we will advertise a
gradient to above-normal temps in NE GA and the western Upstate,
i.e., a much more gradual transition than would be expected in a
strong wedge.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...The 12Z models have come into better
agreement on the pattern for Sunday into next week. The upper levels
will feature a flat ridge across the Great Plains, shifting east to
the Southeast states by Monday. A rather complex-looking trough will
slowly drift east out of the Rockies to the Mid-MS Valley on
Tuesday, eventually crossing the eastern CONUS Wednesday thru
Thursday. At the sfc, a weak sfc low will cross the Central
Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, dragging a weak cold front thru
the CWFA. It will be more like a wind shift line than anything, as
temps will actually be rather warm behind it on Sunday. The GFS MOS
actually has upper 70s to around 80 across the Upstate and NE GA.
That may be a little too warm, but downslope flow with little change
in thicknesses should allow above normal temps. In the NW NC
piedmont, thicknesses do fall a bit behind the "front", so there
will be just around normal. As for PoPs, given the model agreement
on dry westerly flow across the area, I cut back PoPs Saturday night
thru Sunday. As the next upper trough approaches from the west,
another cyclone will form and push out across the Southern Plains
Sunday into Monday. Moist low-level southwesterly upglide flow will
ramp up across the region, and bring back clouds and PoPs from SW to
NE Sunday night thru Monday. There looks to be an in-situ wedge that
sets up Monday, keeping temps mainly in the 50s to mid 60s. The low
will cross the Ohio Valley Monday night then off to the Mid-Atlantic
on Tuesday. This will push another cold front thru the area. There
may be some INSTBY in the warm sector that could support some
thunderstorms. But the models are not in very good agreement on
this. There will certainly be plenty of shear, such that if we do
see some CAPE, organized storms may develop, but most likely near
the Gulf Coast. The low will quickly deepen as it turns into yet
another nor'easter Tuesday. So flow will turn out of the NW and
could be fairly gusty, especially in the high terrain. There may be
a NW flow snow event late Tuesday into Wednesday, but the new 12z
ECMWF does not have that. Temps will return to below normal behind
this system for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR expected through the period. Most sites
will experience gusty winds from the W/NW through the afternoon,
with winds diminishing to less than 10 kts by mid-evening, then
turning to the W/SW late tonight. SW winds increase again after
sunrise Thursday, gusting into the 20s by the end of the period.
(KAVL will see NW winds continuing through the period, but the
weakening/strengthening trend will hold.)

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to persist through at least
Thursday. Chances for precipitation and restrictions will gradually
increase from late Friday through the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for much of our northeast GA
counties through 7 pm. Otherwise, RH will remain in the 20 to 30%
range across much of the Piedmont/foothills into the early evening.
Winds will also be fairly gusty across much of the area before
diminishing this evening. On the heels of gusty W/SW winds, a rapid
warm-up is expected tomorrow, with temperatures expected to be
about 20 degrees higher than today's readings. While a decent amount
of dewpoint recovery is also expected, RH is nevertheless expected
to range in the 20-25 percent range tomorrow afternoon, mainly along
and south of the I-85 corridor. Meanwhile, per NWS RAH's
coordination with NC land management agencies, we will plan to issue
a Fire Danger Statement for our  southern tier of Piedmont/foothills
zones on Thu morning. While Red Flag criteria is expected to be
approached/met across much of Upstate SC Thu afternoon, land
management agencies in SC indicate fuel moisture remains a bit high
to support RFW issuance. Coordination for a potential FDS for SC (as
well as northeast GA) may occur tomorrow morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Fire Danger Statement until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL
FIRE WEATHER...JDL
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 14, 1:46 PM EDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
146 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

NCZ033-048>053-059-501-503-505-151800-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Northern Jackson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
146 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...High winds possible. High winds are possible above 3500
feet.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-151800-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-
146 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Fire Danger Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-NCZ035>037-056>058-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510-
SCZ001>014-019-151800-
Rabun-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
146 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 14, 9:48 AM EDT, 5 hours 13 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
948 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             OLD FORT                35.63N  82.18W
03/14/2018  M5.0 INCH        MCDOWELL           NC   COCORAHS

&&

OUTLAW
Local storm report, Mar 14, 9:50 AM EDT, 5 hours 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
950 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             4 SW OLD FORT           35.59N  82.23W
03/14/2018  M1.0 INCH        MCDOWELL           NC   COCORAHS

&&

OUTLAW
Local storm report, Mar 14, 9:53 AM EDT, 5 hours 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
953 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             1 WNW ALLENSTAND        35.98N  82.77W
03/14/2018  M2.0 INCH        MADISON            NC   COCORAHS

&&

OUTLAW
Local storm report, Mar 14, 10:30 AM EDT, 4 hours 31 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             2 NE LINVILLE           36.09N  81.85W
03/14/2018  M6.0 INCH        AVERY              NC   COCORAHS

            GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATION 5280 FEET.

&&

OUTLAW
Local storm report, Mar 14, 10:45 AM EDT, 4 hours 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 AM     SNOW             5 ENE SAPPHIRE          35.14N  82.92W
03/14/2018  E0.1 INCH        TRANSYLVANIA       NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 NE LAKE TOXAWAY THERE IS A DUSTING OF SNOW. MIN
            TEMPERATURE 21 DEGREES AND CURRENT TEMP 25.

&&

OUTLAW
Local storm report, Mar 14, 11:29 AM EDT, 3 hours 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1129 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 AM     SNOW             MORGANTON               35.74N  81.70W
03/14/2018  M1.0 INCH        BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

WIMBERLEY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 14, 7:21 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCabarrus, Gaston, Lincoln, Mecklenburg69 min

Nearby

Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2018Every wind advisory in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.