Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2018
Wind Advisory 24, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Dec 26, 2018, 3:05 PM EST for Habersham County, Rabun County, Georgia; 10 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Dec 27, 2018, 10:00 AM EST. It was in force for 23 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 26, 2018, 3:05 PM EST (20:05 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 27, 2018, 10:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Dec 28, 2018, 8:45 AM EST
- In force
- 23 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Counties Habersham County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Swain County, NC, Yancey County, NC
The radar
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 275 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1191 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 9 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 67 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
822 WWUS72 KGSP 262005 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 305 PM EST Wed Dec 26 2018 ...STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS... .Between deep low pressure in the middle of the country, and a ridge of high pressure over the East Coast, strong winds will develop and affect the higher elevations of the Appalachians. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-270500- /O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0024.181227T1500Z-181228T1200Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, and Cashiers 305 PM EST Wed Dec 26 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday. * LOCATIONS...The North Carolina mountains northwest of the Blue Ridge Escarpment, plus the mountains of far northeast Georgia. * HAZARDS...Strong and gusty winds. * TIMING...From late Thursday morning through early Friday morning. * WINDS...Southeast 10 to 20 mph with numerous gusts of 35 to 40 mph. The highest ridges will see a few gusts above 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ Wimberley
7 follow-up statements
548 WWUS72 KGSP 270250 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 950 PM EST Wed Dec 26 2018 ...STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS... .Between deep low pressure in the middle of the country, and a ridge of high pressure over the East Coast, strong winds will develop and affect the higher elevations of the Appalachians. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-271100- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0024.181227T1500Z-181228T1200Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, and Cashiers 950 PM EST Wed Dec 26 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...The North Carolina mountains northwest of the Blue Ridge Escarpment, plus the mountains of far northeast Georgia. * HAZARDS...Strong and gusty winds. * TIMING...From late Thursday morning through early Friday morning. * WINDS...Southeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ Krentz
488 WWUS72 KGSP 270821 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 321 AM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 ...STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS... .Between intense low pressure in the middle of the country and a ridge of high pressure over the East Coast, strong winds will develop and affect the higher elevations of the Appalachians. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-272000- /O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0024.181227T1500Z-181228T1800Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, and Cashiers 321 AM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...The North Carolina mountains northwest of the Blue Ridge Escarpment, plus the mountains of far northeast Georgia. * HAZARDS...Strong and gusty winds. * TIMING...From late Thursday morning through early Friday morning. * WINDS...Southeast 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ LEC
060 WWUS72 KGSP 271035 CCA NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 535 AM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 ...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... .Between intense low pressure in the middle of the country and a ridge of high pressure over the East Coast, strong winds will develop and affect the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians. Occasionally heavier rain showers could transport wind energy down into the lower mountain valleys at times as well. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-272000- /O.COR.KGSP.WI.Y.0024.181227T1500Z-181228T1800Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, and Cashiers 535 AM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...The North Carolina mountains along and west of the Blue Ridge Escarpment, plus the mountains of far northeast Georgia. * HAZARDS...Strong and gusty winds. * TIMING...From late this morning through Friday morning. * WINDS...Southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph at times. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ LEC/HG
878 WWUS72 KGSP 271953 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 253 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 ...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... .Between intense low pressure in the middle of the country and a ridge of high pressure over the East Coast, strong winds will continue to develop and affect the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians. Occasionally heavier rain showers could transport wind energy down into the lower mountain valleys at times as well. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-280400- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-181228T1800Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, and Cashiers 253 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...The North Carolina mountains along and west of the Blue Ridge Escarpment, plus the mountains of far northeast Georgia. * HAZARDS...Strong and gusty winds. * TIMING...Through Friday morning. * WINDS...South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ Sturey
769 WWUS72 KGSP 280303 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1003 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 ...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... .Between intense low pressure in the middle of the country and a ridge of high pressure over the East Coast, strong winds will continue to develop and affect the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians. Occasionally heavier rain showers could transport wind energy down into the lower mountain valleys at times as well. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-281515- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-181228T1800Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, and Cashiers 1003 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...The North Carolina mountains along and west of the Blue Ridge Escarpment, plus the mountains of far northeast Georgia. * HAZARDS...Strong and gusty winds. * TIMING...Through Friday morning. * WINDS...South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$
850 WWUS72 KGSP 280845 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 345 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... .Between intense low pressure in the middle of the country and a ridge of high pressure over the East Coast, strong winds will continue to affect the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians this morning. Occasionally heavier rain showers could also transport gusts down into the lower mountain valleys at times. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-281645- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-181228T1800Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, and Cashiers 345 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...The North Carolina mountains along and west of the Blue Ridge Escarpment, plus the mountains of far northeast Georgia. * HAZARDS...Strong and gusty winds. * TIMING...Through this morning. * WINDS...South 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ Carroll
901 WWUS72 KGSP 281345 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 845 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018 GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-281445- /O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-181228T1800Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- 845 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has cancelled the Wind Advisory. The potential for strong wind gusts across most of the North Carolina and Georgia mountains has subsided. There may still be some gusts of 40 to 50 mph in elevations above 5000 ft through midday. $$ ARK
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Dec 26, 2:51 PM EST, 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 26, 2:51 PM EST, 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EST Wed Dec 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides offshore tonight in advance of a very moist
frontal system for Thursday and Friday. The front will stall
south of our area on Saturday bringing us temporary dry weather,
but will return as a warm front for Sunday as the next wet system
arrives. The front may stall near our area for several days next
week bringing additional rounds of rainfall through the period.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM: High pressure is centered over the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Aloft, ridging is on the increase over the Southeast as
a deep trough advances into the Plains. Cold-air damming will
gradually develop through tonight as the sfc high brings cool
northeasterly flow into our area, and as moist, warm upglide occurs
overhead between the upper ridge and the Plains system.
Mostly clear skies will be seen over the majority of the area
through this evening before cloud cover expands northeastward across
the area. The moist layer remains shallow through this time, and
PoPs are only warranted in the far southwest around daybreak, but
with time these chances gradually increase toward the NE as well,
as frontogenesis occurs over an increasingly deep layer as does
saturation. That said, model QPF is not particularly impressive
during the daytime hours, but with heavier rain coming Thursday
night and Friday, we will hoist a Flood Watch. Please see Hydro
section for more details.
850mb winds are progged to quickly ramp up during the morning,
peaking at 45-50 kt later in the day and remaining nearly as strong
into Thursday night, before northward movement of the Plains
system carries the stronger flow off to the north. While these
winds will occur within WAA, and therefore mixing down to the
sfc will be limited, some of the ridgetops of our mountain zones
could be directly exposed to the LLJ winds. Hence a Wind Advisory
will be hoisted from 15z Thu to 09z Fri for our mountainous WNC
and NE GA zones. We could argue for an elevation split, but feel
there still will be enough public impact in the lower elevations
to include the whole zones.
Min temps tonight will be a little above climo with building cloud
cover, particularly in the southwest. Temps tomorrow will reflect
the wedge, with an appreciable gradient across the Piedmont,
and possibly nondiurnal in some areas. Maxes will be two or three
categories below climo.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2pm EST Wednesday: Major rain-making system will be impacting
the area, primarily on Friday, with rain beginning Thursday night
and tapering-off Friday night. A very large, eastward moving, upper
trough covers much of the Western CONUS Thursday evening, with a
strong surface low/trough from Iowa to Louisiana. The GSP area will
initially still be under the effects of wedge flow with a large
northeastern CONUS surface high; however, strong 850mb flow will be
bringing moisture into the region, initially over the wedge, but
eventually disrupting the wedge, possibly by Friday morning.
Continued moist advection on Friday will bring in considerable
moisture, with precipitation enhanced by upslope flow in the
foothills, and forcing from surface trough/cold front that reaches
the Southern Appalachians Friday evening. GFS-based soundings for
the area have over 1.5" of precipitable water on Friday, which is in
record territory for winter levels. Overall, expect 2 to 3 inches
of rain, with the highest amounts north and west of the piedmont.
With conditions still very saturated from recent rains, expect
renewed flooding issues, and a flood watch will be issued from 0Z
Friday. Fairly strong 850mb southerly flow is also expected to give
strong winds and gusts at higher elevations, and have wind advisory
for the mountains will continue into Friday.
In addition, warm advection will warm things enough by Friday
afternoon from some SBCAPE to develop in forecast soundings.
Generally less than 500 j/kg of CAPE is anticipated at this time,
generally south of I85, but deep layer shear of around 45 kts will
make some severe wind gusts not entirely out of the question.
Minimum temperatures are expected to be warm enough, even at the
higher elevations, for this to be an all rain event. With passage
of front Friday evening, rain will taper off and Saturday will be a
respite from rain with some clearing.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230pm EDT Wednesday: Following the pause in rain on Saturday,
more rain is expected by Saturday night or Sunday morning as next
major synoptic system associated with broad Western CONUS troughing
begins to affect Southern states. Dynamical upper forcing is not
particularly strong on Sunday, but good moisture advection on
southerly to southwesterly 850mb flow will again ramp-up
precipitable water to relatively high levels (reaching 1.34 inches
by Monday morning, per the GFS). This moisture will interact with
weak disturbances in southwesterly flow aloft, and a surface
trough/area of convergence east of the Appalachians, to give good
chances for rain Sunday through Tuesday.
A frontal passage, seen in both the GFS and EC models, may end
period of wet weather late on Tuesday, though the EC model follows
this up with another system fairly quickly.
While precipitation Sun through Tue is not expected to be as heavy
as what is expected on Friday, amounts of 1 to 2 inches of
additional rain over 3 days may be enough to prolong flooding issues.
Temperatures are expected to be warm enough for rain to be the
resulting form of precipitation; however, Monday morning could see
some snow at higher elevations of the Appalachians near the TN state
line.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through tonight. High pressure centered
over the Tidewater region will maintain an easterly flow through the
period, but mainly ESE this afternoon. With confluent flow aloft,
and increasing moisture advection atop the high, cold-air damming
will set up by Thursday morning. As a result cigs will develop at
low VFR around that time, with worsening restrictions as the day
continues. Some guidance suggests IFR may form over the SC sites
and KAVL as soon as late morning, but the current thinking is
that precip likely won't get going until later than that, and the
precip is likely necessary in order to produce the IFR. No mention
of IFR has yet been made in the TAFs, with not even KCLT likely
to see such poor conditions until after the end of the period.
Outlook: Expect heavy rainfall across the area Thursday night and
Friday, with areas of severe restrictions developing. While VFR
may briefly return thereafter, unsettled weather will redevelop
over the weekend as additional waves of moisture approach the area.
Confidence Table...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 86%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 98% High 95%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 86%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 95%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 98% High 95%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 93% High 97%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
This year has been a very challenging hydrologic one for our region,
and unfortunately, the forecast suggests little will change as we
close out 2018. Antecedent conditions are very wet across most
of the area, with precipitation totals over the past two weeks
running 150 to 300 percent of normal from the French Broad River and
upper Savannah River valleys east across the Upstate and into the
Catawba, and Yadkin River valleys in the North Carolina. While most
river systems have receded to well-below bankfull following the
heavy rainfall event last week, the upper and lower soils remain
nearly if not completely saturated. With soils unable to absorb
much additional rainfall, it will take less rainfall than normal
to produce substantial runoff, which is why we are concerned the
flood threat may be significant in some areas, especially in the
flood-prone areas of the upper French Broad River Valley, where
Moderate flooding is possible. Since Moderate flooding is defined
as significant inundation of stream-adjacent low lying areas and a
few roadways, and possibly a few structures, residents are urged
to pay close attention to the latest forecasts for the mainstem
rivers at: https:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp.
Given the expectation of at least a few wet systems over the next
week, some mainstem rivers may stay above bankfull for several days.
Elsewhere, significant stream response is expected to cause
scattered Minor flooding, primarily affecting low-lying areas
and water-crossings adjacent to streams as well as poorly draining
urban areas. Furthermore, reservoirs remain high, especially across
the Catawba River system, and prolonged high pools and shoreline
flood risks appear likely given the wet pattern over the next week.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...Wimberley
HYDROLOGY...JMPHazardous weather outlook, Dec 26, 4:40 AM EST, 10 hours 25 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 440 AM EST Wed Dec 26 2018 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-270945- Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains- 440 AM EST Wed Dec 26 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. A storm system will bring widespread heavy rain to the area Thursday through Friday. The expected rainfall, with likely totals of 2 to 4 inches, could cause flooding of streams, creeks, and main stem rivers through the end of the week. In addition, elevations at or above 3500 feet will see very windy conditions at times late Thursday through Friday morning. South winds of 20 to 30 mph may gust to 40 to 50 mph at times. Isolated tree and limb damage, and associated power outages, could develop. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504- 506>510-SCZ001>014-019-270945- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell- Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus- Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell- Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg- Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood- 440 AM EST Wed Dec 26 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the foothills and piedmont of western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. A storm system will bring widespread heavy rain to the area Thursday through Friday. The expected rainfall, with likely totals of 1.5 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts in and near the mountains, could cause flooding of streams, creeks, and main stem rivers through the end of the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. HG
The office that day
Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 3:01 PM EST | Flood Watch | GSP | Elbert, Franklin, Habersham, Hart, Rabun, Stephens | 52 hr |
Nearby
Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2018Wind Advisories in Georgia, 2018Every wind advisory in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.