Wind Advisory 23, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

521 
WWUS72 KGSP 160754
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
254 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING...

.Broad high pressure building east will support gusty northwest 
winds focused across higher elevations of the northern mountains 
and foothills of western North Carolina. With saturated soils and 
possibly left over ice accretion on leaves...isolated weak trees 
and limbs will likely be blown down.

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-161400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181116T1400Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
254 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...Northern mountains and foothills of the western 
  Carolinas.

* HAZARDS...The combination of gusty northwest winds and ice 
  coated trees and powerlines.

* TIMING...through the early morning.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

Krentz

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
658 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure moves over our region Friday behind a
departing cold front. The high remains in place for the weekend. A
couple of dry cold fronts cross the area on Monday then again on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2pm EST Thursday:  Main brunt of precipitation with strong
upper system crossing through the central Eastern CONUS is past the
area, with precipitation having ended everywhere.  Some light snow
is expected in the mountains and adjacent foothills tonight as low-
level upslope flow assists.  Extensive cloud cover will gradually
improve overnight as low-level flow becomes more westerly to
northwesterly and Friday is expected to be mostly clear and warmer.

Currently northeasterly CAD surface flow is weakening as surface low
associated with the upper system becomes better defined east of the
area.  On the backside of this low, surface winds are expected to
become westerly this evening.  850mb winds becomes quite strong
overnight as southside of system crosses over the region, with 850mb
winds up to 40kts.  This might give some strong gusts at higher
elevations for awhile tonight, but diurnal stabilization of the
boundary layer should keep gusts isolated to higher elevations.

Do not expect significant problems from black ice as significant
snow or sleet did not accumulate today, though a few isolated
locations with some sleet that fails to melt this afternoon may see
some black ice, and will issue an SPS for that.

Flood watch will continue this afternoon as some rivers are still
high or rising from run-off from early rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM EST Thursday: Zonal or low amplitude southwesterly flow
aloft develops behind the departing upper low Saturday and remains
in place on Sunday. Moderating surface high pressure builds in from
the west on Saturday and weakens on Sunday as a cold front
approaches from the west and a weak surface low develops along the
Carolina coast. The results of all this are diminishing winds and
mostly clear skies Saturday. Light winds continue Sunday but high
clouds increase late in the day as upper level moisture streams in
ahead of the two afore mentioned systems. Still, both days will be a
welcome respite from the weather earlier in the week. The only
potential weather concern is the possibility of morning fog both
days. Some guidance is hinting at widespread potentially dense fog
while others aren't as concerned. The ground will be very moist and
relatively warm with cool air temps. However, will leave out for now
given the discrepancies. Lows Saturday morning will be around 5
degrees below normal rising to near or just below normal Sunday
morning. Highs Saturday will be near or just below normal then
steady or a degree or so lower on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EST Thursday: Expect the weather to generally be quiet
through the extended for a much welcomed break. A series of weak
short waves cross the area in a developing low amplitude eastern
trough. At the surface, a mainly dry cold front crosses the area
Monday. There may be enough moisture to wring out a few showers over
the TN border counties. However, temps will be warm enough for any
showers to be rain. Another dry cold front crosses the area
Wednesday with dry high pressure for Tuesday and Thursday. Highs
will be near normal Monday ahead of the front then remain around 5
degrees below normal through Thursday. Lows near normal Monday and
Tuesday mornings fall to a few degrees below normal for Wednesday and
Thursday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Cigs/vsbys expected to become VFR by 06Z
across main terminals as cold front pushes/mixes out lingering
low level moisture and associated low cigs. Gusty NW winds
behind the front expected across mountain sites through 08Z
including KAVL with a chance of briefly impacting KHKY.
Otherwise light winds and VFR conds should prevail for the
remainder of the TAF period as high pressure gradually filters
into the region from the west.

Outlook: VFR conds likely prevailing this weekend, except for the
potential IFR or lower cigs/vsbys during the late night to early
morning hours due to fog.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       Med   77%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  98%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  93%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High  93%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  99%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  97%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ053-065-068>072-
     507>510.
SC...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for SCZ003-006>010-
     012>014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...Munroe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
313 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

NCZ033-035-048>052-058-059-062>064-501>506-162015-
Avery-Alexander-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
313 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

With temperatures expected to fall into the 20s tonight across the
mountains and foothills, lingering water on roads may freeze as
black ice. Please see the Special Weather Statement, CAESPSGSP for
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ053-065-507>510-162015-
Buncombe-Henderson-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
313 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

With temperatures expected to fall into the 20s tonight across the
mountains and foothills, lingering water on roads may freeze as black
ice. Please see the Special Weather Statement, CAESPSGSP for
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ068>072-SCZ003-006>010-012>014-162015-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Laurens-Union-
Chester-
313 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-082-SCZ001-002-004-005-
011-019-162015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-
Rowan-Union-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Abbeville-Greenwood-
313 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
120 PM EST THU NOV 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SALUDA                  35.24N 82.35W
11/15/2018                   POLK               NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED A TREE FELL ON AND DAMAGED A
            HOME IN THE SALUDA AREA. PROBABLY DUE TO A COMBINATION
            OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
225 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

NCZ033-035-048>050-052-053-059-063>065-501>510-161230-
Avery-Alexander-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-
Northern Jackson-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem,
Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point,
Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs,
Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Mount Mitchell State Park, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville,
Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Lake Junaluska, Asheville,
Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard,
Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana,
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir,
Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove,
Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo,
Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Lake Lure, Forest City,
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, Lake Adger,
and Mill Spring
225 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

As temperatures go back below freezing after dark, some black ice
could form on roads, particularly in mountainous terrain and areas
that saw any accumulation of snow or sleet earlier today.
Motorists in thesse areas should exercise extra caution while
driving.