Wind Advisory 20, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

143 
WWUS72 KGSP 011836
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
236 PM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

.A low level jet will continue to intensify over the North 
Carolina mountains this afternoon before weakening while shifting
to the north tonight. As a result, gusty south winds are expected
across the higher mountain elevations of western North Carolina 
through this evening before gradually diminishing overnight.

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-020500-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-181102T0600Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville, 
and Tuckasegee
236 PM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Elevations above 3500 feet.

* HAZARDS...Gusty winds.

* TIMING...Through tonight.

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

SGL

136 
WWUS72 KGSP 020248
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1048 PM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

.Gusty south winds are expected across the higher mountain 
elevations of western North Carolina as strong midlevel winds 
precede an approaching cold front.

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-020600-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-181102T0600Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville, 
and Tuckasegee
1048 PM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Elevations above 3500 feet.

* HAZARDS...Gusty winds.

* TIMING...Through early Friday morning.

* WINDS...South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph on the 
  ridges.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
Wimberley

877 
WWUS72 KGSP 020543
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
143 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-020645-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-181102T0600Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville, 
and Tuckasegee
143 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

Winds have dropped below advisory criteria, thus the advisory will
be allowed to expire.

$$

ARK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
347 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system pushing east along the Mississippi Valley will
bring increasing clouds today with rain likely by late in the day.
Rain will likely continue into Friday before clearing out for the
weekend. Another system may bring a return of unsettled weather
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM EDT: Latest satellite imagery showed high clouds
overspreading the forecast area from the southwest. Moisture is also
increasing at lower levels as denoted by dewpoints rising well into
the 50s across the area for an increase of about 10 deg F over
yesterday at this time. Model guidance indicates weak llvl southerly
upglide setting up across the region by sunrise which should lead to
increasing low clouds, especially northwest of I-85 into the
mountains. The moist upglide may be just enough to squeak out patchy
drizzle or light showers across the western escarpment. A short wave
trough moving northeast through the Ohio River Valley will push a
strong low level jet through the FA today into early tonight. This
will likely support low end advisory winds across the high mountain
terrain through tonight (see NPW for the latest). Additionally, this
along with a weak sfc boundary will support increasing coverage of
shower activity from west to east this afternoon and evening with
showers likely continuing into tonight. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms with this activity late this afternoon into the
evening as it enters northeast Georgia and the Upstate of South
Carolina. Current guidance indicates that a remnant cool pool east
of the mountains will limit instability and likely cause and
thunderstorm activity to fall apart before reaching I-26. A lack of
deep layer of instability greatly limits the potential for severe
thunderstorms during this time. Moderate to brief heavy rainfall is
possible with amounts through tonight generally around a half of an
inch or less with local amounts up to around an inch possible across
the western escarpment and adjacent mountains. The increasing cloud
cover followed by rain will lead to a low diurnal range in
temperatures with highs today upper 60s mtn valleys to low to mid
70s with tonight lows only in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Thursday: Still expecting that we will start the
day on Friday in the midst of a lull of sorts, in the wake of the
initial wave of mid/upper forcing. The sfc front is expected to
be lingering over the higher terrain, perhaps still to the west
of the mtns. The situation will gradually improve through the
morning as the next short wave rotates around the bottom of the
upper trof axis just to our west and another jet streak lifts out
of the upper trof bringing an increase to upper divergence mainly
over the eastern half of the fcst area. With the injection of
new forcing and the development of a new wave moving N along the
front, the precip prob climbs back up to the likely/categorical
range W to E in the afternoon. The convective situation still
looks marginally more interesting over the eastern-most zones
Friday afternoon and evening. The NAM still has the instability
to the east of the fcst area, but the GFS still manages to eke
out 300-500 J/kg of sbCAPE over the southeastern part of metro
CLT along with 40kt of shear. The new Day2 Convective Outlook
brings the Marginal Risk into Union County NC, and this will not
be argued, altho the better potential still looks like it will be
to the east later in the day. The main precip will exit quickly
Friday evening as the sfc wave carries the front east of the fcst
area by 03Z Saturday. There will be a quick transition to a W/NW
flow upslope over the mtns Friday night, with cold air invading
from the west. Precip chances will start fairly high along the TN
border and remain in the chance range into the early morning hours,
by which time we may see something of a changeover to snow showers
at the high elevations. Again, no significant accum is expected.

The rest of the weekend should be fairly quiet as the upper
pattern is progressive. The moisture pulls out quickly on Saturday
morning, ending any light precip potential over the nrn mountains
by mid-morning. High pressure builds in thru the day with sky
clearing. High temps will fall off about five degrees compared
to Friday. The high pressure center moves past to the north on
Saturday night with temps cooling off enough east of the mtns to
raise some concern for frost early Sunday morning. Expect the rest
of the day on Sunday to remain dry, with some clouds returning
late in the day, and temps a bit below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday: Signs still point to the development
of cold air damming early next week. At 00Z Monday, the guidance
is in good agreement with the position of an upper ridge off the
east coast and an upper trof axis along the MS River or Plains,
with a large sfc high centered over New England. Isentropic upglide
is expected to commence around sunset as a coastal front develops
overnight. The upglide should become productive, with light rain
developing over the top of the sfc ridge during the overnight hours,
which may lock in a wedge east of the mtns on Monday. Precip chances
ramp up thru the chance to likely ranges during this period. The
high temp fcst for Monday reflects a slight cooling because of
the clouds and light precip, but the reality could easily be 10-15
degrees cooler. Confidence is low and doesn't get any better. The
guidance suggests the wedge would be scoured out late Monday or
early Tuesday as low pressure and an associated cold front approach
from the west. We'll see about that. Assuming that happens, we
could find ourselves in another potential high-shear/low CAPE
situation for Tuesday afternoon/evening if the GFS is correct,
altho it does not look quite as favorable as yesterday night's
run. The fcst keeps the timing of the GFS with the main precip
moving through gradually through Tuesday night, altho the slower
timing of the ECMWF will not be discounted based on recent model
performance. Temps should be at or above normal after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Weak southerly moist upglide is expected to
develop between 09Z and 12Z with MVFR cigs the most likely outcome
being development of MVFR cigs mainly along and NW of the I-85
corridor including KCLT. There is a 30 percent chance of IFR or
lower cigs developing during this time focused more towards a line
from KGSP to KHKY. Shower activity will likely be on the increase
from west to east this afternoon with showers and occasionally
embedded heavier rain possible late this afternoon into early
evening, especially from a line from KGSP to KAVL and points west.
There is about a 10 percent chance of a thunderstorm for that area
during this time, which is not currently enough to include in the
TAF. Rain will continue will continue across most terminals tonight,
however there is a chance there will be breaks at times. Weak to
occasional moderate LLWS is possible at KAVL due to strong southerly
winds aloft.

Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are expected Thursday
evening thru Friday as a frontal system is expected to push
through the region, bringing increased cloud cover, rain, and
maybe a few TSRA. VFR should return late Friday or Saturday and
prevail through this weekend.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       High  94%     High  86%     High 100%     High  94%
KGSP       High  88%     Med   79%     High  97%     High  85%
KAVL       High  98%     High  86%     High  86%     High  96%
KHKY       High  93%     High  91%     High  97%     High  88%
KGMU       High  85%     Med   77%     High  98%     High  87%
KAND       High  90%     High  83%     High  95%     High  91%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Munroe
NEAR TERM...Munroe
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...Munroe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
639 AM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056-058-059-
062>065-068-069-501>510-SCZ001>008-010-011045-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-Anderson-
639 AM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ057-070>072-082-SCZ009-011>014-019-011045-
Rowan-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-York-Abbeville-Laurens-
Chester-Greenwood-
639 AM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for parts of the western Piedmont
of North Carolina, including the Charlotte metro area, and the
upstate and lower Piedmont of South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible from Thursday evening through Friday. The
potential exists for one or two of the thunderstorms to get strong
enough to produce damaging wind gusts on Friday afternoon and into
the early evening. Further developments related to the amount of
instability ahead of strong cold front will determine the number and
severity of storms during this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PM