Wind Advisory 19, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

350 
WWUS72 KGSP 290018
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
818 PM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.Gusty northwest winds will develop behind a passing cold front
through the early morning hours. The strongest winds will impact
mainly the higher elevations and especially locations in the
northern mountains of western North Carolina. 

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-291000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-181029T1500Z/
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut,
Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, 
Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, 
Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, 
Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, 
Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, 
Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, 
Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, 
Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort, 
and Saluda
818 PM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...The mountains of western North Carolina as well as
  Rabun County in northeast Georgia.

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions.

* TIMING...This evening through Monday morning.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph,
  especially along the higher ridges of the northern mountains.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

HG

585 
WWUS72 KGSP 290742
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
342 AM EDT Mon Oct 29 2018

...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...

.Gusty northwest winds will continue through early this morning. 
The strongest winds will impact mainly the higher elevations in 
the northern mountains of western North Carolina.

GAZ010-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-290845-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-181029T1500Z/
Rabun-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-
Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
342 AM EDT Mon Oct 29 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has
cancelled the Wind Advisory.

Advisory level northwest winds are no longer expected across the 
area.

$$

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-291500-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-181029T1500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
342 AM EDT Mon Oct 29 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...The northern mountains of western North Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Windy conditions.

* TIMING...Through this morning.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph
  focused across higher elevations.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 45 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

436 
WWUS72 KGSP 291455
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1055 AM EDT Mon Oct 29 2018

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-291600-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-181029T1500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
1055 AM EDT Mon Oct 29 2018

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

Winds have dropped below advisory criteria, thus the advisory will
be allowed to expire.

$$

SGL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1030 AM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Northwest flow will persist over the region through tonight bringing
mostly cloudy skies and periodic light showers along the Tennessee
border. Conditions will clear early next week as high pressure moves
over the region. Later in the week, a cold front will approach from
the west, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10:30a EDT Sunday:  Forecast is pretty much on track and only
update is to increase wind gusts some tonight and tomorrow morning
to account for strong winds at higher elevations as front moves
through.  Will go ahead and issue a wind advisory for the higher
elevations for tonight and tomorrow morning.

The upper flow remains quick over the next 24 hours. Any threat over
the mtns should end around daybreak as the moisture pulls out. A
short wave ridge moves overhead this morning, supporting a sfc
high pressure ridge moving past early in the day. Meanwhile, the
next upper trof/low will be diving quickly down across the upper
Midwest/Great Lakes, driving a reinforcing cold front quickly toward
the region from the NW in the afternoon. Sfc winds will come around
to SW and should be gusty from late morning onward with deep mixing.
All signs point to this next system as a quick shot of deeper
moisture and forcing that races eastward across the region in the
early evening, so precip prob ramps up quickly to the chance range
near the TN border and then drops off just as fast because of a lack
of moisture lingering behind the front tonight. Will not rule out a
brief passing shower across the NC foothills/wrn Piedmont this
evening as well. Bigger concern might be a period of strong and
gusty winds across the higher terrain with the passage of the front.
High temps will be a bit below normal, but warm enough that
only liquid is expected. Temps should be a bit above normal
tonight, so frost is not a concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 AM Sat: The short term period Monday morning through
Tuesday night will be between storm systems and relatively quiet.
The shortwave trough across the Mid-Atlantic states will continue to
depart to the east with lingering breezy conditions through the
afternoon, especially over the mountains. Low level moisture over
the Ohio River Valley will decrease Monday leaving only scattered
low level clouds through the afternoon along the TN border. Clear
skies and light winds under weak surface high pressure will set up
nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions Monday night. However,
the airmass in place is not particularly cold so only expecting low
temperatures about 5 degrees below normal with 30s to low 40s across
the region. As such, patchy frost at best is expected for most of
the NC piedmont with no other frost/freeze concerns outside of the
mountains. Zonal flow will setup atop the region by Tuesday with
weak warm air advection and a few mid to high level clouds
overspreading the region well in advance of the next frontal system
to affect the region. Temperatures Tuesday into Tuesday night will
approach seasonal norms with highs generally in the 60s and lows in
the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Sunday: Decent model agreement through Thursday
provides moderate confidence in the forecast through this time with
low confidence thereafter. A positively tilted trough near the Four
Corners region Wednesday will swing east into the lower Mississippi
Valley Thursday or Friday while becoming neutrally tilted. This will
cause the flow over the FA to turn increasing southwesterly aloft
and southerly near the surface Wednesday into Thursday. Increasing
moisture riding the southwest flow ahead of the trough will support
increasing clouds initially at mid to high levels Wednesday before
lowering and becoming more widespread Thursday as moist low level
flow increases. Shower chances associated with the low level moist
flow will be on the increase Wednesday night focused across the
southwest mountains mainly due to orographic lift. Widespread rain
is expected as later Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front
impinges on the FA. In fact model guidance has been fairly
consistent in showing the potential for thunderstorms along and just
ahead of the cold front, a few of which could be severe given
sufficient instability (CAPE values approx 300 J/Kg) and low level
shear (bulk shear in excess of 40 kts possible). Gusty south to
southwest winds are also possible along and ahead of the front and
especially at higher mountain elevations. Improving conditions are
expected across most of the FA sometime Friday as cooler and drier
air filters into the region behind the cold. Near to above normal
Temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday, likely falling
below normal in the wake of the cold front next weekend. With the
long wave trough likely persisting over the eastern CONUS, there is
a potential for additional precipitation, mainly light sometime next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period at all TAF
sites. Satellite imagery shows cloudiness over the nrn mountains of
NC, spilling east of the Blue Ridge at daybreak, with a base right
around 050. KCLT will begin with a FEW050, but that should dry up
as the moisture pulls out this morning. Light SW Wind to start
should strengthen from the SW by late morning in response to an
approaching reinforcing cold front. Low-end gusts are likely with
mixing from late morning thru the rest of the daylight hours. KAVL
could experience a somewhat rare cross-wind during the afternoon
because of the strong W flow aloft. The passage of the boundary
should bring the wind around to W outside the mtns, but NW in the
French Broad Valley near KAVL, with gusts continuing thru the end
of the period.

Outlook: Drier air will spread into the region through the early
part of the upcoming week, with dry VFR conditions persisting
through Wednesday. A vigorous frontal system, with associated
increasing moisture, will likely arrive from the west on Thursday.

Confidence Table...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     GAZ010.
NC...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Munroe
NEAR TERM...PM/WJM
SHORT TERM...Munroe
LONG TERM...Munroe
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
617 AM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-291030-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
617 AM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A fast-moving clipper system will bring gusty winds to the mountains
beginning this evening into tonight. High elevations will see wind
gusts of 25 to 35 mph tonight, with a few gusts possibly as high as
50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-291030-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
617 AM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.