Wind Advisory 10, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

603 
WWUS72 KGSP 150738
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
338 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

.Southerly winds will increase across the extreme southern
Appalachians overnight, with strong wind gusts persisting through
late Sunday morning. Locally heavy rain showers developing along
an approaching cold front may further channel strong wind gusts
to the ground. Behind the cold front, temperatures across the
southwest mountains will likely drop below freezing tonight.

NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-151545-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FZ.A.0003.180416T0400Z-180416T1400Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-180415T1600Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, 
Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, 
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, and Cashiers
338 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Freeze Watch, which is in effect from late tonight through
Monday morning.

* LOCATIONS...Elevations above 3500 feet in the southwestern 
  mountains of western North Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts this morning. Freezing temperatures
  tonight.

* TIMING...Winds will increase rapidly overnight, with strong wind
  gusts persisting through the late morning hours on Sunday before
  diminishing gradually Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will drop
  below freezing after midnight tonight.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows in the lower 30s tonight.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Frost and freeze 
  conditions may damage sensitive vegetation. Take steps now to 
  protect tender plants from the cold. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

A Freeze Watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

NCZ064-151545-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-180415T1600Z/
Transylvania-
338 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...Elevations above 3500 feet in the southwestern 
  mountains of western North Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts.

* TIMING...Winds will increase rapidly overnight, with strong 
  wind gusts persisting through the late morning hours on Sunday 
  before diminishing gradually Sunday afternoon.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ048-053-151545-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FZ.A.0003.180416T0400Z-180416T1400Z/
Madison-Buncombe-
Including the cities of Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, 
Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, and Asheville
338 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Freeze Watch, which is in effect from late tonight through
Monday morning.

* LOCATIONS...The central and southern mountains of North
  Carolina.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows in the lower 30s tonight.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive 
  vegetation. Take steps now to protect tender plants from the 
  cold. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

884 
WWUS72 KGSP 151540
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1140 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

.Temperatures across the southwest mountains will likely drop 
below freezing tonight.

NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-152345-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-180415T1600Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.A.0003.180416T0400Z-180416T1400Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, 
Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, 
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, and Cashiers
1140 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EDT TODAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...The central and southern mountains of North
  Carolina. 

* TEMPERATURES...Lows in the upper 20s.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive 
  vegetation. Take steps now to protect tender plants from the 
  cold. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

A Freeze Watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

NCZ064-151645-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-180415T1600Z/
Transylvania-
1140 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EDT TODAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

.Winds will continue to diminish through the afternoon.

$$

NCZ048-053-152345-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.A.0003.180416T0400Z-180416T1400Z/
Madison-Buncombe-
Including the cities of Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, 
Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, and Asheville
1140 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...The central and southern mountains of North 
  Carolina.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 40s.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive 
  vegetation. Take steps now to protect tender plants from the 
  cold. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
506 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous cold front will move through the area Sunday bringing
showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe with
damaging wind, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Much cooler air will
overspread the region in the wake of the front on Monday with
temperatures warming again through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 500 PM: Regional radars are keeping the robust convection
generally confined from eastern AL to central TN this evening. The
eastward progression is slowing somewhat as the upper system lifting
across northwest MO begins to acquire a stronger negative tilt. Will
thus keep any PoPs out of our southwest mountains through midnight
before chances slowly increase overnight in the upslope areas and
from the west with the approaching strong front.

Precipitation chances will then really ramp up across the western
part of the forecast area after daybreak, then the higher chances
spread east through the day. Strong forcing will be associated with
this system along with a strong low level jet. The low level winds
back and increase in speed creating strong curving hodographs
indicating high values of helicity and strong effective shear.
Instability remains on the low side. However, CAPE values could
approach 1000 J/kg across the NC Piedmont and eastern Upstate during
the afternoon. The HREF also shows the highest updraft helicity
values across this area as well. Severe thunderstorm progs on the
SREF also highlight this area. Therefore, will have to watch for
mini-supercell formation given the amount of shear and instability
as this system moves through. Cannot rule out a severe storm to the
west of these areas, but chances are not as high. Damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes would be the main threats. Heavy rainfall will
also be a concern. PW values will be 2 standard deviations above
normal. Southerly low level winds are up to 4 SD above normal while
southerly H25 winds are up to 3 SD above normal. This moisture,
forcing, strong upslope flow, and strong convection will help create
the potential for very efficient rainfall producers. The ensemble
means suggest the areas along and near the Blue Ridge have the
highest chances for heavy rainfall, so will have to keep an eye on
this as well. Not confident enough for a watch just yet. Finally,
the strong low level jet will lead to strong wind gusts across the
higher elevations of the NC Mountains. Usually, the strongest winds
remain across the higher elevations in these pre-frontal
environments. But of course, the convection could help translate
some of the stronger winds down toward the valleys. Will hold off on
any advisory for now and let later shifts reevaluate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...The large upper low will drift east across
the Great Lakes, allowing heights to rise atop the CWFA thru the
short term. The associated sfc low will push its trailing cold front
east of the area overnight Sunday night, taking the convective into
central NC. Some wrap-around moisture will bump up against the TN/NC
border thru Monday aftn, producing scattered showers. Strong 850 mb
CAA will bring snow levels down to about 3500 ft by early Monday
morning. Snow accums should be light, with 1-2" possible in the
highest elevations before the showers taper off. Temps will drop
into the 30s in the mountains Sunday night and 40s piedmont. Then
with continued low-level CAA, temps warm only into the 40s to lower
50s in the mountains and upper 50s to lower 60s piedmont Monday with
breezy conditions. Monday night looks the coldest night of the week
with temps dipping into the 20s to mid 30s in the high terrain. A
freeze warning may be needed across the mountains where the growing
season has started (all but the Northern Mountains). Conditions
don't look ideal for frost, but nevertheless some mid 30s will be
possible across the NC foothills and NW piedmont. Temps rebound
nicely on Tuesday as mild high pressure settles in from the west.
Highs slightly below normal in the mountains and near normal east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday: The medium range forecast begins
Tuesday night as the forecast period is expected to be an overall
quiet one. With sfc high pressure in place across the Southeast and
an exiting upper trough well north of the FA, latest guidance
continues to prog the eastward progression of a low amplitude upper
ridge across the central US Tuesday night into Wednesday as the
system behind it tracks across the central Plains and into the OH
Valley Wednesday night. With nearly zonal flow aloft and a limited
supply of moisture, a trailing cold front from this system will push
through the FA from west to east Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Expect the development of any isolated showers to remain
confined to areas along the TN border as the Upstate and NW Piedmont
will remain dry with passing clouds and breezy winds. In fact, ahead
of the front on Wednesday through into Thursday evening, do expect
breezy winds across the entire FA with a tightening pressure
gradient. Behind the front, the upper trough associated with this
system is expected to push eastward across New England Thursday
night into Friday with sfc high pressure returning to the region for
the end of the week. Another weak upper ridge is progged to build
across the central US ahead of the next developing system across the
Rockies.

Wednesday will be the warmest day of the rest of the week, with
temperatures in the upper 70s/around 80 degrees across the NW
Piedmont and Upstate, and slightly cooler back across the mountains.
The coldest night/morning will be Thursday night into Friday morning
behind the recently passed cold front with temperatures across the
mountains in the 30s/lower 40s - mid to upper 40s elsewhere.
Otherwise, the warmer trend will continue through into Saturday,
with temperatures at or just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: SCT to BKN low VFR and S to SW gusty winds
continue through the late afternoon. Low VFR cigs continue through
the evening but gusts drop off. Conditions deteriorate after
midnight as low level moisture increases ahead of an approaching
cold front. Cigs fall to MVFR then IFR with showers developing. VSBY
falls to MVFR and possibly after daybreak as showers and
thunderstorms become more widespread. Gusty SE to S winds return
after midnight then become S to SW after daybreak. LLWS likely at
KAVL after daybreak as well. Restrictions continue into the
afternoon, but there could be some improvement across the western
sites.

Outlook: Other than perhaps some lingering mountain showers, dry and
cooler conditions should return Monday and continue into mid week.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  98%     High  96%     High  81%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  96%     High  91%
KAVL       High 100%     High  98%     High  85%     High  92%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  93%     High  89%
KGMU       High 100%     High  98%     High  98%     High  81%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  89%     High  92%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...HG/RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
349 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-
082-501>506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-152000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
349 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...Severe weather and flooding possible. A strong cold
front, accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms, will
cross the region from west to east on Sunday. Some of these
thunderstorms may produce damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.
In addition, high rainfall rates could produce flash flooding
across the area.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-152000-
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
349 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Southerly winds are expected to increase overnight through Sunday
morning across the high terrain of the Central and Southern North
Carolina mountains. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible on
ridges of the Smokies and Balsams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...Severe weather and flooding possible. A strong cold
front, accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms, will
cross the region from west to east on Sunday. Some of these
thunderstorms may produce damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.
In addition, high rainfall rates could produce flash flooding
across the area.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...Frost/freeze possible. Temperatures are expected to drop
into the 20s to mid 30s across the North Carolina mountains Monday
night into early Tuesday. A freeze warning may be needed for parts of
the area.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

ARK