Wind Advisory 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

779 
WWUS72 KGSP 221550
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1050 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-230000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180123T0900Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville, 
and Tuckasegee
1050 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...The higher elevations of the western North 
  Carolina mountains.

* HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts.

* TIMING...this afternoon into tonight.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

ARK

981 
WWUS72 KGSP 221955
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
255 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-230400-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180123T1100Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, 
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, 
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, and Sylva
255 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...The higher elevations of the western North 
  Carolina mountains.

* HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts.

* TIMING...through tonight.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

ARK

473 
WWUS72 KGSP 230329
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1029 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-231100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180123T1100Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, 
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, 
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, and Sylva
1029 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...The higher elevations of the western North 
  Carolina mountains.

* HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts.

* TIMING...through around daybreak Tuesday.

* WINDS...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

411 
WWUS72 KGSP 230839
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
339 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...

NCZ033-049-050-231645-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180123T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0002.180123T1800Z-180124T1500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, and 
Poplar
339 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to
10 AM EST Wednesday. The Wind Advisory has been cancelled.

* LOCATIONS...The northern mountains of North Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts.

* TIMING...Beginning early this afternoon thru mid-morning 
  Wednesday.

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-230945-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180123T1100Z/
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-
339 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has
cancelled the Wind Advisory.

Winds have remained below advisory criteria this morning...thus 
the wind advisory has been cancelled.

$$

Krentz

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1242 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move farther offshore tonight and tomorrow.
A wet cold front will then cross the region later tomorrow and
into early Tuesday. In the front's wake, dry high pressure will
overspread the region and persist through the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 935 PM: Seeing an increase in cirrus over the Tenn Valley
and N GA trailing the approaching upper ridge axis. This cirrus
should begin to be seen in our wrn zones over the next couple of
hours, then filling in over the remainder of the area by early
morning. Low confidence in the overnight temp fcst; some obs sites
have cooled very slowly since sunset while others have crashed
remarkably. Not sure if the latter sites are just decoupling
more quickly due to lighter winds or if there is perhaps some
snow cover surrounding them (though after such a warm day I doubt
that). None of the hi-res guidance is handling the trends well,
but most suggest mins will be several degrees warmer than what we
had advertised. New values are somewhat warmer which would make
sense if the cirrus fills in sufficiently prior to dawn.

With this update, also revised PoP through Monday night, with
biggest changes during the daytime hours. New 00z NAM agrees
with 18z GFS and HREF mean, suggesting precip chances during
the bulk of the day will be tied to the Blue Ridge and associated
upsloping. Some SREF members do evidently generate QPF as warm front
moves northward into the Upstate in late morning, but deterministic
runs and meso models show little such response. Still looks wise
to advertise thunder only after sunset in the immediate prefrontal
environment given new NAM CAPE trends. Of course that does not
bode well for our small, albeit nonzero, severe potential.

Conditions will remain warm and mild through most of Monday in
most areas, with clouds and some showers increasing from the west
Monday afternoon as upstream system advances. Good dynamics with
this system should squeeze out some precipitation, but system
is fairly quick moving with storm-total precipitation around a
quarter to a half inch of rain. Low-level moisture advances Monday
afternoon ahead of a major front that reaches the NC/TN stateline
area Monday night. 850mb flow also increases ahead of the front
to 40 kts Monday evening, which could give some elevated wind and
gusts over mountain peaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Sunday:  The short term fcst period kicks off with
a bang Monday night as a deep closed upper low works through the
mid/upper MS river valley, while it's associated surface trof/front
complex drives eastward across the OH/TN Valleys.  Out ahead,
persistent sly/sely H850 flow into the southern Appalachians will
warrant hefty pops along the s/se facing slopes of the Blue Ridge
given good moist upsloping potential.  As the entire system shifts
east through the night, the front will cross the region thus
warranting high end pops regionwide, with overall fcst QPF generally
in the half inch range.  That being said, the dynamics associated
with this front are quite strong given a potent low/mid level
jetmax, with wind profiles being veered overall.  As for
instability, a Bufkit profile analysis indicates better lapse rates
in the GFS vs the NAM in the mid/upper levels which in turn yields
some marginal elevated instability.  Likewise, although very
minimal, there is at least some positive sbcape which could promote
a deep enough mixed layer to mix into the aforementioned potent
~55kt llj.  All said, given the nocturnal nature yielding minimal
CAPE as well as veered profiles, would be suprised to see any deep
strong/severe convection.  Thus, for now the fcst will feature
increased pops in association with the fropa into Tuesday morning
with pops tapering into the afternoon amidst clearing and caa.  One
other note regarding Monday night, the sly llj will likely yield
gusty winds across the higher terrain, upwards of 45-50mph,
therefore a wind advisory cannot be ruled out.

Moving on, once the upper trof axis swings through the region into
Tuesday afternoon, profiles will be solidly veered nwly, which
combined with caa and ample llv moisture could lead to a brief round
of nwfs Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Therefore the fcst will
feature such by way of slight chance pops along the TN line, with
little accumulation fcst at this time.  In addition to the light
snowfall, winds will once again be elevated amidst the nwf pattern
across the high terrain on Tuesday night, thus another wind advisory
may be needed, especially over the northern mtns.  The remainder of
the short term looks quiet as high pressure continues to build into
the region from the west amidst sustained nwly flow yielding dry and
slightly cooler conditions.  Overall temperatures through the period
will initialize above normal Monday night, gradually cooling to at
or just below normal levels by periods end.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 pm Sunday: A fairly amplified, but progressive pattern
will be in place at the start of the period, as upper trough moving
off the East Coast Wed night will be displaced by an amplifying
ridge  by late Friday, as a series of short waves deepens a trough
across the Great Plains. The first half of the medium range will be
dry with near-normal temperatures.

By early in the weekend, S/SE low level flow will begin a gradual
increase in response to height falls to our west, with an attendant
uptick in Atlantic moisture. Shower chances will therefore begin
increasing near the southern Blue Ridge by Saturday morning,
gradually increasing and expanding through Saturday night, before
increasing to likely in all areas by Sunday, as cold front/possibly
attendant surface wave move across the TN Valley. Cannot completely
rule out a brief, light wintry mountain mix if precip begins early
enough Sat morning, but profiles should quickly become supportive of
all-liquid.

As one would expect with a dynamic system with a large warm sector,
shear parameters ahead of the front are expected to be strong-to-
extreme. As usual, the primary source of uncertainty re: a high
shear/low CAPE severe convective threat is the degree of buoyancy,
if any that will be available. Despite increasing cloud cover, warm
advection should send temps above normal by Sat night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Southerly flow will continue to increase
through the period as moisture moves in from the west ahead of a
strong system. High cloud bases will lower through the early morning
hours, and cannot rule out some brief fog or MVFR clouds around
daybreak for portions of the area, but widespread MVFR expected to
move in from S to N generally after 18z, lowering to IFR and
possibly LIFR as -SHRA moves in. Winds will continue to increase
late in the period with low-end gusts to 20kt expected, and LLWS at
KAVL and possibly KHKY would be an added concern. No improvement
until after the front passes just beyond the end of the period.

Outlook: Behind the front, dry high pressure will dominate the area
through the remainder of the week. Another system will move in over
the weekend, bringing another round of -SHRA and restrictions.

Confidence Table...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...Wimberley/WJM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...TDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
528 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-221030-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
528 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-049-050-221030-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
528 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...High winds possible. A strong cold front will cross the
mountains Tuesday. Winds behind the front will increase across the
northern mountains Tuesday night.
..Wednesday...High winds possible. High winds may linger across the
northern mountains Wednesday morning.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.