Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
813 PM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will persist over the Eastern CONUS through
Tuesday with abundant gulf moisture persisting over the region. A
fairly robust reinforcing upper trough and its associated cold front
will bring additional widespread showers and thunderstorms late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. In the front's wake, drier high pressure
will spread over the area for the latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT...A few storms still tracking across the Piedmont
as we head toward sunset. The HRRR wants to keep activity going
across teh NC Piedmont well after dark, as a weak front sags south
into the area. But overall, things should gradually wind down. Only
minor tweaks were made to the grids with this update.

An upper low dropping down the MO Valley tonight and tomorrow
morning will continue to push east through the near term period as
the surface boundary remains in place. Upstream diffluence aloft
will spread over the southern Appalachians as additional moisture
overspreads the area. Low level moisture advection will continue so
expect to see another round of low clouds in the morning. The
stronger upper support (jet dynamics and dPVA) will hold off into
the short term period, but still with the summertime airmass in
place plus the addition of synoptic lift just from the upper
diffluence, should see more widespread convection Monday afternoon.
Near-term guidance is indicating a much more tropical profile so
with the lack of mid-level dry air, concern for wet microbursts is
lowered, though low-level lapse rates will remain steep in the
shallow boundary layer. Heavy rain concerns begin to creep up
tomorrow as PWs increase to 2" or greater across the area.

With the moisture and cloud cover, expect overnight lows to night a
couple of degrees above seasonal normals, and highs tomorrow a few
degrees below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday: Short wave ridging over the area at the
start of the period moves east as an upper low over the Mid MS
Valley opens up and moves east. The trough associated with this
system crosses the area on Tuesday. Broad upper trough then develops
across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday as additional short wave
energy moves in and helps carve out the trough.

At the sfc, a cold front associated with the afore mentioned upper
system moves into the area from the west Tuesday. The combination
of upper and low level forcing, along with increasing moisture and
instability, will lead to high end scattered to numerous coverage of
convection during the day. Looks like there will be enough
instability and shear for some storms to become severe. SPC already
has most of the CWFA in a marginal risk. With PW values near 2
inches, favorable positioning of the upper jet, and storm motions
generally parallel to the slow moving front, heavy rainfall and
isolated flooding are possible. WPC already has portions of the CWFA
in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

Despite the broad upper trough, deep moisture moves east on
Wednesday with the departing cold front. Low level flow becomes
northwesterly with some drying taking place. That said, there will
be some lingering moisture and weak instability, so scattered
convective coverage expected over the mountains with isolated
coverage at best elsewhere.

Highs will be near normal both days with lows a couple of degrees
above normal each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday: Starting Wednesday evening. Taking the
average of the medium range models gives the axis of the 500mb
trough north to south across the Appalachians to the Carolinas for
Wednesday night. The surface front at that time will be near to or
just off the Carolina coast with dry high pressure building over our
region. The center of this high pressure should be over Illinois
early Thursday and over Ohio or PA early Friday. Light wind flow
will adjust as the high moves north of our area. Precipitable water
values 0.5 to 1 inch Thursday and Friday with dry continental
northerly flow then a gradual rise in PWats over the weekend as the
high moves offshore and wind flow from southerly directions begin.
With the departure of the 500mb trough from the East Coast, the
Texas ridge is forecast to build east and amplify to some extent
pushing the jet stream into Canada. Temperatures are forecast to be
3 to 6 degrees below normal through the period but perhaps coolest
on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Three main clusters of storms at time
of TAF issuance in the area, one of them is west of KCLT and will
come close to the terminal around 01z. However, as we approach
sunset, the storms should weaken. Will keep a TEMPO thru 02z for
now. Storms also continue to fire south of GMU/GSP, where a VCTS
will be carried for the first hour or so of the TAFs. Otherwise,
lingering showers thru the evening, but should gradually wane
overnight. Guidance shows low stratus and some patchy fog developing
before daybreak, mainly over the NC foothills, piedmont and mountain
valleys. Low clouds look patchy across the Upstate. Another round of
scattered to numerous showers and tstms expected again on Monday.
Very moist air mass in place, with a weak front will be in the area.
IFR to MVFR cigs should gradually scatter and lift to VFR by midday
(although convective cloud levels will remain low). Winds will favor
the SW thru the period, except light and variable overnight.

Outlook: Expect decent coverage of mainly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday. Drier high pressure may build in
behind a passing front on Thursday. Until then, restrictions are
expected mainly during the morning as low clouds forms, and then
under any afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  92%     High  80%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  98%     High 100%
KAVL       High  93%     Med   74%     High  82%     High 100%
KHKY       High  96%     Med   79%     Med   78%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High  98%     High  99%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  92%     High  95%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
408 PM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-202015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
408 PM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms move east across the
area through the evening. These storms may produce high rainfall
rates that could lead to isolated urban, low lying, and small stream
flooding. The flooding threat will be highest over the mountains and
foothills. Additionally, a few storms could become severe and produce
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

On Tuesday, a robust cold front will approach the forecast area from
the west and help to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Some of these storms could become severe and produce large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and possibly even weak tornadoes. Isolated
urban and small stream flooding is also a threat with these storms.
The flooding threat will be greatest over the higher terrain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
713 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2018

SCZ006-192345-
Greater Greenville SC-
713 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN GREENVILLE COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 712 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Greenville Downtown, or near Simpsonville, moving
east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Simpsonville, Fountain Inn, Donaldson Center, Five Forks and Mauldin.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 8238 3475 8239 3481 8217 3480 8216
      3480 8217 3479 8215 3468 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 261DEG 13KT 3472 8223

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
731 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2018

NCZ068-200000-
Cleveland NC-
731 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTY UNTIL
800 PM EDT...

At 730 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Shelby, or over Lattimore, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Shelby, Lawndale, Lattimore, Mooresboro, Kingstown, Fallston and
Boiling Springs NC.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 8151 3529 8147 3525 8174 3528 8174
      3534 8171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 245DEG 15KT 3532 8165

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
746 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2018

NCZ036-200015-
Iredell NC-
746 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 746 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles southeast of
Statesville to 12 miles north of Huntersville, and moving east at 10
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Troutman, Lake Norman State Park, Mooresville, Lake Norman and
Doolie.

Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3568 8077 3561 8077 3558 8092 3561 8094
      3562 8092 3564 8095 3567 8097 3569 8098
      3576 8082 3571 8076
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 282DEG 10KT 3571 8077 3559 8092

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
808 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2018

NCZ036-057-200045-
Rowan NC-Iredell NC-
808 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL AND
SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 807 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Kannapolis, or near Mooresville, moving southeast
at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Mooresville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 8087 3566 8079 3558 8066 3553 8071
      3551 8080
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 307DEG 8KT 3558 8079

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
814 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2018

NCZ068>070-200045-
Gaston NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-
814 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN LINCOLN...CENTRAL
CLEVELAND AND NORTHWESTERN GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 813 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Lincolnton, or 4 miles east of Fallston, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lincolnton, Fallston, Cherryville, Crouse and Vale.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3544 8121 3536 8148 3542 8155 3556 8137
      3556 8135
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 235DEG 16KT 3544 8143

LANE

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