Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
242 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will settle southward into the region tonight and
then stall across the area on Friday. Slightly drier and more stable
air will work into the region from the north through Friday, but
summertime heat, humidity, and afternoon storms will return over the
weekend. Much of next week will remain very hot, with scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM Thursday...We are just starting to see a few cells
develop over the higher terrain, although they have not produced any
lightning yet. I still expect convective coverage to increase over
the next several hours. Otherwise, a weak ulvl trof will traverse
the region tonight with the best forcing remaining south and west of
the fcst area. Meanwhile...sfc high pressure behind the trof will
push a frontal zone farther south thru the evening. The CAMS have
been inconsistent so far today wrt the coverage and timing of
convective development and currently have the best coverage over the
NC Foothills and Piedmont. PoPs were raised a bit over this area and
lowered a bit over the higher terrain. With very low shear and
sbCAPE peaking around 2000 J/kg, still thinking a few cells could
become severe. Isolated showers may linger into the overnight period
with no significant impacts as they dissipate thru 06z or so. Max
temps will peak above climatology today and again tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday: A robust upper-level ridge axis will begin to
build in earnest from the Mississippi River Valley region to the
western Carolinas over the weekend. This will herald the onset of
much warmer than climo temperatures, with the heat increasing
further into next week. At the surface, any lingering stalled
frontal boundary will dissipate, with a persistent piedmont trough
embedded within developing surface high pressure across the
southeast through the weekend. This will lead to a diurnal pattern
of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday, with generally a mountain ridge top maximum to the coverage.
Expect plenty of mid 90s for Sunday afternoon highs east of the
mountains, but with Heat Index values remaining below the Advisory
criteria of 105.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 PM Thursday: A strong 500 mb ridge, with H5 heights in the
592 to 594 dm range, will persist over the southeast at least
through Monday. The GFS has some hints of northern stream energy
starting to break down the ridge on Tuesday, but the ECMWF
stubbornly keeps a flatter 590 dm ridge in place until early
Wednesday. There is better consensus on deep layer northwest flow,
and a possible setup of MCS tracks from the northwest, on Thursday,
along with slightly cooler temperatures. Until then, expect
scattered diurnal convection to continue Monday through Wednesday
with maximum temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees above climatology in
most areas. A few piedmont locations could teeter on Heat Advisory
criteria if dewpoints do not mix out during the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect mostly VFR conditions thru the 18z TAF
period. So far today we have yet to see any convective activity,
although some thunderstorms have developed well to our SE. We are
still expecting convection to develop over the fcst area during the
next few hours, but coverage could be more limited than previously
expected. As such, I included VCTS into the evening for all sites
except KCLT, where I have VCSH and a TEMPO for TSRA from 19 to 23z
with some vrb wind gusts. The only restrictions I included were for
KAVL for MVFR visby beginning around 08z tomorrow with a TEMPO for
IFR visby and cigs from 09 to 13z. Winds will remain light and
generally WLY thru the evening, before becoming NLY late tonight and
into the overnight. By the early afternoon tomorrow, they will
likely veer around to more NELY.

Outlook: Into the weekend, typical summertime potential for showers
and thunderstorms will be possible each day in the afternoon and
evening, along with morning fog in the mountain valleys and over
lakes.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  87%     High  95%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
315 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-068-
069-501>510-SCZ001>008-010-151915-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Avery-Alexander-Madison-
Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-Anderson-
315 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the
mountains and foothills of western North Carolina, and much of
Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon into early
this evening. The main threat will be cloud-to-ground lightning,
however, a few thunderstorms may become quite strong or reach severe
levels and produce large hail and damaging winds. Even relatively
modest thunderstorms will likely produce very gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to relay any reports of large hail or damaging
winds to the National Weather Service.

GAZ029-NCZ036-037-057-070>072-082-SCZ009-011>014-019-151915-
Elbert-Iredell-Davie-Rowan-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-York-
Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
315 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Elbert County in northeast
Georgia, the piedmont of North Carolina including the Charlotte metro
area, and the lower piedmont of Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon into early
this evening. The main threat will be cloud-to-ground lightning,
however, a few thunderstorms may become quite strong or reach severe
levels and produce large hail and damaging winds. Even relatively
modest thunderstorms will likely produce very gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to relay any reports of large hail or
damaging winds to the National Weather Service.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
246 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

NCZ052-059-063-064-SCZ002-003-141915-
Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Southern Jackson NC-Northern Jackson NC-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
246 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT TRANSYLVANIA...EAST CENTRAL
JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 245 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Brevard, or 5 miles southeast of Rosman, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Brevard, Rosman, Lake Toxaway, Graveyard Fields, Looking Glass, Table
Rock State Park, Caesars Head State Park, Black Balsam Area, Jones
Gap State Park and B.R. Parkway-Black Balsam To Mount Pisgah.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 8286 3506 8252 3490 8280 3505 8291
      3505 8290 3506 8291 3532 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 326DEG 9KT 3508 8278

Carroll

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
321 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

NCZ064-SCZ002-003-141945-
Transylvania NC-Pickens Mountains SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
321 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
TRANSYLVANIA...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND NORTH CENTRAL PICKENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 321 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 11 miles south of Brevard, or near Table Rock State
Park, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rosman, Lake Toxaway, Table Rock State Park, Caesars Head State Park,
Jones Gap State Park, Gorges State Park, Jocassee Gorges,
Pumpkintown, Balsam Grove and Connestee.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 55 mph and nickel
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 8283 3507 8250 3491 8269 3490 8270
      3516 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 309DEG 8KT 3507 8271

Carroll