Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
526 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist airmass will persist through the weekend keeping a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. A drier and seasonable
air mass will arrive behind a passing cold front early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 510 pm: Convection has gotten going over the past couple of
hours across the NC Foothills and Northern Piedmont, as well as,
NE Georgia. A handful of severe thunderstorm warnings have already
been issued on the strongest storms with more warnings expected
over the next few hours. Deep layer shear will begin increasing
from the west over the next several hours, but for the most part,
we're still expecting mostly pulse cells, or perhaps some small-scale
multicell clustering. In terms of any lingering hydro threat, it's
looking like the better coverage will remain east and south of the
areas with the most dire antecedent conditions, but still cannot
completely rule out a risk of localized flash flooding.

Convection should diminish later this evening in typical fashion,
although a low level NW flow developing in the wake of a mid-level
short wave trough could allow for the occasional shower along the
Tennessee border. Min temps will continue to run a few degrees above
normal. With weak subsidence developing downstream of a TN/OH Valley
short wave ridge, along with weak downslope flow, deep convection
may initially have a tough go of it on Saturday. However, forecast
soundings indicate more than ample instability, with little
inhibition. As such, scattered convection should eventually fire
along across the ridge tops and move southeast, warranting 30-50
pops across the mountains, and 20-30 across the Piedmont. Max temps
will be similar to today's readings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2:35 PM Friday: The first part of this forecast cycle should
feature an end to lingering showers and thunderstorms Saturday
evening. This is a result of the diurnal cycle ending and the first
upper level trough shifting off to the east.

We may have a short period of upper level ridging late Saturday
night into Sunday morning. But that will be short lived as a second
trough digs rapidly (northwesterly flow aloft )into our forecast
area (FA), roughly late Sunday morning into Sunday evening. This
upper level trough will be accompanied by a secondary cold front.

The combination of frontal convergence and a decent lobe of energy
with the system, should tap residual moisture allowing for updrafts
and scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. CAPES remain
very respectable, between 1000-2000 J/KG, and 0-6km bulk shear is up
at around 30 kts. However, there is a fair amount of inhibition, and
potential warm layer persisting. We have edged the POPS Sunday up
slightly and will watch for later changes in the convective
parameters.

The showers and thunderstorms should wane Sunday evening, with dry
conditions by Monday morning.

We should remain generally under a northwest flow aloft Monday with
dry conditions. The exception might be in our northern NC mountains
with a cool pool, and a combination of lingering moisture. As a
resul we will carry a few showers Monday afternoon.

Final note on the shower and thunderstorm potential in this period:
it appears showers and thunderstorms will be moving along, based on
sounding information. However we will monitor any slowing of the
showers and storms which might cause a local flash flood threat.

In the temperature department, the thermal profiles are showing a
nice warm-up Sunday, before the frontal passage. Following into
Monday we should shave at least a few degrees (at least) in
comparison to Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday: Much drier air continues to filter across the
region Monday night and Tuesday on both the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS
has surface high pressure centered over the SE States late Tuesday.
A backdoor cool front drops down mid week but timing is different
from GFS and EC. The EC keeps us dry through the late week although
low pressure over north Florida to offshore SC brings some moisture
near piedmont at the end of the week. The GFS now has increasing
moisture late in the week with the backdoor front stalling over our
area Thursday with a shortwave dropping down from NW on Friday with
good coverage of convection to start the weekend. Since this is the
first run with this increased moisture, will hold off and only
increase POPs just a tad. Temps near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The convective cycle has been slow to get
going across the area this afternoon, and based upon the appearance
of the cumulus field, we're probably still a couple of hours or so
away from seeing any appreciable coverage of showers and storms. I
still think we'll see scattered coverage develop across the
foothills/far western Piedmont by mid-afternoon, which will then
move east to impact locations near KCLT by late afternoon/early
evening. This is the only site that receives a tempo for TSRA. With
less certainty elsewhere, the convective mention is limited to VCTS
from 20Z/21Z into the evening hours. Convection will diminish by
late evening. Occurrence of fog and/or low stratus late tonight/
early Saturday will hinge largely on which, if any sites receive
significant rainfall later today. Since that's not at all clear, no
overnight restrictions are carried attm. SW winds at around 10 kts
are expected through the evening at most sites, becoming light
overnight before shifting to the W/NW tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms,
along with possible morning fog at a few locations and/or low cigs
are possible each day through Sunday night. Drier high pressure will
build in from the NW Monday, resulting in even less chances for
convection and restrictions thru the middle of next week.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  88%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL/JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
514 AM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
514 AM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the area this
afternoon and evening. In addition to the continued threat of
localized flash flooding, a few of the storms will be capable of
producing severe weather in the form of damaging downburst winds
and large hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning will be
possible with any storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
634 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

SCZ008-009-012300-
York SC-Cherokee SC-
634 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN YORK AND SOUTHEASTERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 634 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of York, or near Hickory Grove, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
York, Sharon, Hickory Grove, Smyrna, Kings Mountain State Park,
Saratt, Kings Creek, Bethany and Cherokee Falls.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 8154 3506 8155 3514 8126 3489 8122
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 261DEG 15KT 3499 8145

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
642 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BESSEMER CITY           35.28N 81.29W
06/01/2018                   GASTON             NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT OF TREES BLOWN DOWN. ONE FELL ON A HOUSE ON EAST
            GEORGIA AVE.

&&

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
646 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

SCZ006-007-012315-
Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
646 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND WEST
CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 646 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Greenville Downtown, or near Taylors, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Greenville Eastside, Greer, Mauldin, Taylors,
Simpsonville, Five Forks, Duncan, Lyman and Wellford.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3492 8242 3505 8210 3482 8191 3475 8211
      3476 8211 3475 8212 3478 8213 3478 8215
      3473 8217 3469 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 247DEG 30KT 3487 8229

WJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
651 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE TOWNVILLE          34.53N 82.84W
06/01/2018                   ANDERSON           SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES BLOWN DOWN BTW MM 11 AND MM 12 ON I-85.

&&

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
652 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

NCZ057-072-012315-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
652 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 652 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Kannapolis, or 4 miles southwest of Rockwell, moving
east at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Downtown Concord, Kannapolis, Rockwell, Mt Pleasant, Faith, Gold
Hill, High Rock and High Rock Lake.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8029 3538 8038 3535 8056 3546 8060
      3556 8055 3564 8029 3563 8029 3562 8025
      3558 8021 3555 8021 3554 8020 3553 8020
      3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 255DEG 32KT 3550 8044

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
707 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENWOOD               34.19N 82.15W
06/01/2018                   GREENWOOD          SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            REPORTS OF MANY TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS THE
            COUNTY. ONE TREE ON HOUSE IN GREENWOOD ON LINDSEY AVE.

&&

KRENTZ