Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

283 
WWUS52 KGSP 111945
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
345 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018

NCC149-161-111955-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-180511T2000Z/
Rutherford NC-Polk NC-
345 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND POLK
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled. However heavy rain is 
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3523 8176 3521 8228 3534 8230 3536 8228
      3537 8228 3539 8226 3540 8227 3542 8227
      3551 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 261DEG 16KT 3535 8192 

$$

JPT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
205 PM EDT Fri May 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon mainly mountain thunderstorms are expected through the
weekend. As a ridge of high pressure builds over the area Sunday and
Monday, temperatures will increase to near record levels.
Precipitation chances increase Tuesday and remain elevated through
late next week as a complex low pressure system impacts the area,
but temperatures will return to near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM: Water vapor satellite imagery shows a general ridge
overhead but with a weakness in the ridge pattern moving into the
southern Appalachians this afternoon. Any DPVA forcing with this
feature appears quite weak. The latest HRRR still features scattered
convective development in the heart of the forecast area, generally
developing from Brevard to Hendersonville, which then moves east
across the foothills and possibly the piedmont before dissipating
early this evening. This is in line with KGSP radar trends which
already have isolated to scattered convection developing and moving
off the eastern escarpment of the southern/central mountains. LAPS
shows fairly robust sbCAPE values of 2000 to 2500 in the far western
Upstate, but triggering is expected to be a bit more lacking there.
The best potential for isolated severe hail and wind will likely be
in the immediate lee of the central mountains - similar to the area
hardest hit on Thursday afternoon. Convection will dissipate quickly
mid to late evening, and little more than lingering debris clouds,
with southwest mountain valley fog, are expected during a mild
overnight period.

The H5 ridge will build more in earnest over the southeast on
Saturday. The resulting warmer mid-level temperatures should inhibit
convective coverage a bit more on Saturday afternoon, with mainly
just isolated to scattered coverage in the usual initiation areas
around the Pisgah Forest region. Wind profiles will remain rather
light and southwesterly through the near-term, with little to no
potential for storms to organize. Max temperatures should be solidly
in the lower 90s east of the mountains, with plenty of mid to upper
80s in the lower mountain valleys, but with maxes just a touch below
records in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Fri: A subtropical ridge will dominate the pattern
over our area this weekend. Gradual height rises occur over the
southern Plains during this time, ahead of a deep low over the
intermountain region. Here in the Southeast, the growth of the
ridge will be tempered by the weak low lingering over Florida, but
nonetheless we will see hot daytime temperatures 13 to 15 degrees
above normal, with Sunday being the hotter day. At Charlotte our
latest forecast still calls for a record high Sunday. Dewpoints are
expected to hover near 60 each afternoon, low enough to minimize
heat index. However, with abundant sunshine, having a source of
water and shade are not a bad idea for anyone spending time outside.

The exceptionally warm temps lead the models to produce
large SBCAPE values each afternoon, though we will lack a good
initiation mechanism during the period. Still, several guidance
sources generate QPF over the mountains and foothills on Saturday,
warranting slight chance to chance PoPs. Subsidence looks to be more
effective at suppressing convection Sunday, so we will advertise
only a brief slight chance over the higher mountains. Short
hodographs imply pulse-mode convection though surface-midlevel
theta-e lapses are too weak to suggest a high likelihood of
severe winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Fri: One more hot and mostly dry day is in store for
the area on Monday before we experience pattern change. After
hanging out off the Florida Gulf Coast for several days,
an upper low and weak sfc reflection will finally drift north
Monday night just as the upper ridge axis moves over the southern
Appalachians. Southeasterly return flow gradually will bring back
abundant moisture. The pattern is predictably slow to evolve,
meaning the resultant unsettled weather will linger to the end of
the forecast period. By Day 7 the aforementioned low is expected
to be absorbed by the next midlatitude trough, which should keep
moist conditions in place over the East into next weekend.

Diurnally generated instability is still expected each day, though
profiles are moist through a deep layer and lapse rates will not be
very strong. PWAT values from the GFS are near daily record values,
but it has a high bias. Nonetheless heavy rain looks to be our
primary concern with any convection that develops; in particular,
the weak MBE vectors progged by the GFS imply training of cells
could occur.

Max temps are fcst to be a couple degrees shy of records at
KGSP/KCLT on Monday, still about 12-15 degrees above normal across
the area. Temps fall back to only a few degrees above normal Tue
and beyond, given cloudy and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Expect convective coverage to be less than
observed on Thursday afternoon as mid/upper level forcing is weaker
and profiles are warming aloft. That said, TEMPO for TSRA seems
reasonable from KAVL out along a southern foothills/piedmont track
to KCLT through 00Z. Will feature VCTS at the foothill sites, except
for keeping KAND dry with any convection likely staying closer to
the NC/SC border. Expect VFR conditions throughout, except under any
thunderstorms and also in fog/low stratus in the southwest mountain
valleys overnight. Winds will be generally light from the southwest
through the period, except mainly NW at KAVL.

Outlook: A summer-like regime will continue into early next week,
with isolated to scattered diurnal convection expected most days.
Any restrictions should be confined to areas under showers/
thunderstorms or early day fog/stratus in the lower mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 05-11

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      89 1889     50 1960     64 1890     30 1966
   KCLT      95 1916     58 1924     70 1889     39 1977
                1896
                1889
   KGSP      96 1889     59 1924     69 1963     33 1906

RECORDS FOR 05-12

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1980     44 1960     65 1918     36 1969
                1956
                1914
   KCLT      94 1889     56 1960     69 1896     39 1969
   KGSP      99 1916     56 1960     68 1979     38 1989
                                        1933

RECORDS FOR 05-13

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      90 1933     54 1917     67 1890     31 1895
   KCLT      93 1881     59 1891     73 1881     38 1960
   KGSP      95 1886     62 1972     71 1933     37 1917
                            1954
                            1938

RECORDS FOR 05-14

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      89 1956     52 1954     63 1962     30 1895
                1896                    1908
   KCLT      95 1956     53 1954     73 1881     41 2013
                                                    1917
   KGSP      95 1886     52 1954     71 1933     41 2013
                                                    1960
                                                    1917

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...HG
CLIMATE...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
651 AM EDT Fri May 11 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-501>510-SCZ001>010-121100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-
651 AM EDT Fri May 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast today, with
the greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening. Cloud to
ground lightning is possible with any of the storms. However, a few
of the storms will be capable of severe weather in the form of
damaging winds and hail as large as 1 inch in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ011>014-019-121100-
Elbert-Union-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
651 AM EDT Fri May 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the lower Piedmont of the
Carolinas and northeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Wimberley

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
908 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     HAIL             8 SW RUTHERFORDTON      35.28N 82.06W
05/10/2018  E1.00 INCH       POLK               NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT THE TRYON INTERNATIONAL EQUESTRIAN
            CENTER.

&&

SWILKINS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018

NCZ065-507>510-111915-
Greater Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 231 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Hendersonville, or 4 miles north of Saluda, moving east
at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Columbus, Tryon, Saluda, Chimney Rock State Park, Dana, Mill Spring,
Edneyville and Lake Adger.

Up to half inch hail will be possible over these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 8208 3521 8238 3521 8240 3540 8241
      3546 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 266DEG 11KT 3530 8234

JPT