Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
512 PM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak low pressure system will track up the spine of the
Appalachians along a stationary front through Friday and support
continued shower and thunderstorm activity. Drier conditions with
near normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next
week as high pressure over New England noses into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 500 PM EDT Thursday: Still plenty of SBCAPE to work with out
there, but DCAPE values continue to decrease this afternoon, with
best values to our southeast. However, CAMs still depicting another
surge of convection starting around 00z. Have made some adjustments
to pops to lower for another couple of hours across the Piedmont,
still very high across the mountains, and then bump them up again
later this evening. Reduced thunder wording across the mountains as
well where instability is waning more quickly. T/Tds still look good
for now as do winds.

Otherwise, the convection could continue to become strong to severe,
especially if it can organize with the 30 knots or so of 0-1 km bulk
shear and effective bulk shear in place across the area. Expect
damaging wind gusts to be the main threat. The tornado threat
appears to be diminishing as a surface boundary remains north of our
area. Meso analysis also shows any helicity to be north of our area
near the boundary. The HREF also shows the best updraft helicity to
be north of our area as well. This is due to the guidance keeping
the boundary to our north through the evening.

Convection to the west will be slow moving with training of cells
possible as a cold front only slowly moves east overnight. With very
high PW values in place, heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding
could develop. Will keep the watch as is for now.

Intensity and coverage of the convection should diminish overnight
but some showers are likely to continue. Lows will be 10 to 15
degrees above normal.

The cold front slowly crosses the area Friday. There should be
enough forcing, instability, and moisture for isolated to scattered
convection during the afternoon. That said, conditions are not
favorable for severe storms as instability and shear will be much
lower. Little change in thickness values and developing sunshine,
after morning low clouds burn off, will lead to highs around 5
degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday: Baroclinic zone is progged to settle into
the coastal plain by 12z Saturday with a developing llvl nely flow
atop the cwfa, on the cool side of the bndry. Sensible wx should
feature variable cloudiness, more concentrated in the morning, but
hopefully mixing up and out gradually in the afternoon, with the
most optimistic sky fcst in the northern cwfa.  The mean llvl flow
should veer to more easterly on Sunday, probably aiding in expanding
and thickening cloud cover Saturday night followed by a diurnal
lessening by Sunday afternoon. A smattering of token slight chance
pop will be maintained through the weekend, mainly forced by the
easterly flow.  Temperatures are slated to be within a category of
the late September normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday: Will plan on making little change to the
inherited fcst for next week as subtropical hipres remains progged
to build atop the eastern seaboard and linger through the period.
Model consensus supports diurnal precip chances still limited to
token slight and/or small chances, and to just the mountains, given
the broad and deep dvm which should accompany the broad ridging.
Thanks to the onset of llvl return flow and progressively higher
thickness values, temperatures will creep back to above normal on
Monday and maintain above normal values all week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR is lifting to low VFR from south to
north across the area this afternoon. Convection is forming across
the west. Expect convection to move across the area through the
afternoon and early evening with associated restrictions. Expect
cigs to return to MVFR then IFR overnight. MVFR to possibly IFR fog
develops as well. Fog dissipates relatively quickly after daybreak
but cigs will only slowly rise to MVFR then low VFR for the
afternoon. S to SW winds continue through the period. KAVL will see
S wind becoming NW overnight.

Outlook: A front will move across the region late Friday, bringing
an end to restrictions. Expect VFR to return this weekend as high
pressure brings dry weather conditions. Some mountain valley fog
should be expected each morning.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%     Med   76%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     Med   77%     High 100%
KAVL       High  94%     Med   73%     High  81%     High  82%
KHKY       High 100%     High  87%     Med   79%     Med   76%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Med   60%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%     Med   78%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ033-
     048>052-058-059-062.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Munroe
NEAR TERM...RWH/TDP
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
648 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062-281100-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-
Macon-
648 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of flash flooding to
our office.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-053-056-057-063>065-068>072-
082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-281100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
648 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

An unstable airmass will combine with moderate deep-layered shear to
produced lines and clusters of thunderstorms this afternoon across
the foothills and piedmont of the Carolinas and Northeast Georgia.
Some of these storms may become organized and reach severe criteria.
The greatest threats will be damaging downburst and outflow winds
along with large hail. Cloud to ground lightning will be quite
frequent in the stronger and longer-lived convective cells.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

Krentz

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