Severe Thunderstorm Warning 341, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

106 
WWUS52 KGSP 272314
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
714 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

NCC003-035-272324-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0341.000000T0000Z-180927T2330Z/
Catawba NC-Alexander NC-
714 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CATAWBA AND
SOUTHERN ALEXANDER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
this part of the warned area. Therefore the warning for these 
counties has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3605 8089 3605 8077 3595 8070 3590 8070
      3580 8093 3579 8097 3588 8104 3596 8100
      3599 8100 3606 8089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 241DEG 21KT 3591 8095 

$$

NCC097-272330-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0341.000000T0000Z-180927T2330Z/
Iredell NC-
714 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTY...

At 714 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles northwest of
Statesville, or 6 miles northeast of Stony Point, moving northeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Harmony, Love Valley, Union Grove, Scotts, Turnersburg and Olin. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

This storm is producing frequent and intense lightning. Turn off
electrical appliances. Do not use corded telephones. Do not take a
bath or shower.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8089 3605 8077 3595 8070 3590 8070
      3580 8093 3579 8097 3588 8104 3596 8100
      3599 8100 3606 8089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 241DEG 21KT 3591 8095 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

08

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
512 PM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak low pressure system will track up the spine of the
Appalachians along a stationary front through Friday and support
continued shower and thunderstorm activity. Drier conditions with
near normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next
week as high pressure over New England noses into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 500 PM EDT Thursday: Still plenty of SBCAPE to work with out
there, but DCAPE values continue to decrease this afternoon, with
best values to our southeast. However, CAMs still depicting another
surge of convection starting around 00z. Have made some adjustments
to pops to lower for another couple of hours across the Piedmont,
still very high across the mountains, and then bump them up again
later this evening. Reduced thunder wording across the mountains as
well where instability is waning more quickly. T/Tds still look good
for now as do winds.

Otherwise, the convection could continue to become strong to severe,
especially if it can organize with the 30 knots or so of 0-1 km bulk
shear and effective bulk shear in place across the area. Expect
damaging wind gusts to be the main threat. The tornado threat
appears to be diminishing as a surface boundary remains north of our
area. Meso analysis also shows any helicity to be north of our area
near the boundary. The HREF also shows the best updraft helicity to
be north of our area as well. This is due to the guidance keeping
the boundary to our north through the evening.

Convection to the west will be slow moving with training of cells
possible as a cold front only slowly moves east overnight. With very
high PW values in place, heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding
could develop. Will keep the watch as is for now.

Intensity and coverage of the convection should diminish overnight
but some showers are likely to continue. Lows will be 10 to 15
degrees above normal.

The cold front slowly crosses the area Friday. There should be
enough forcing, instability, and moisture for isolated to scattered
convection during the afternoon. That said, conditions are not
favorable for severe storms as instability and shear will be much
lower. Little change in thickness values and developing sunshine,
after morning low clouds burn off, will lead to highs around 5
degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday: Baroclinic zone is progged to settle into
the coastal plain by 12z Saturday with a developing llvl nely flow
atop the cwfa, on the cool side of the bndry. Sensible wx should
feature variable cloudiness, more concentrated in the morning, but
hopefully mixing up and out gradually in the afternoon, with the
most optimistic sky fcst in the northern cwfa.  The mean llvl flow
should veer to more easterly on Sunday, probably aiding in expanding
and thickening cloud cover Saturday night followed by a diurnal
lessening by Sunday afternoon. A smattering of token slight chance
pop will be maintained through the weekend, mainly forced by the
easterly flow.  Temperatures are slated to be within a category of
the late September normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday: Will plan on making little change to the
inherited fcst for next week as subtropical hipres remains progged
to build atop the eastern seaboard and linger through the period.
Model consensus supports diurnal precip chances still limited to
token slight and/or small chances, and to just the mountains, given
the broad and deep dvm which should accompany the broad ridging.
Thanks to the onset of llvl return flow and progressively higher
thickness values, temperatures will creep back to above normal on
Monday and maintain above normal values all week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR is lifting to low VFR from south to
north across the area this afternoon. Convection is forming across
the west. Expect convection to move across the area through the
afternoon and early evening with associated restrictions. Expect
cigs to return to MVFR then IFR overnight. MVFR to possibly IFR fog
develops as well. Fog dissipates relatively quickly after daybreak
but cigs will only slowly rise to MVFR then low VFR for the
afternoon. S to SW winds continue through the period. KAVL will see
S wind becoming NW overnight.

Outlook: A front will move across the region late Friday, bringing
an end to restrictions. Expect VFR to return this weekend as high
pressure brings dry weather conditions. Some mountain valley fog
should be expected each morning.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%     Med   76%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     Med   77%     High 100%
KAVL       High  94%     Med   73%     High  81%     High  82%
KHKY       High 100%     High  87%     Med   79%     Med   76%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Med   60%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%     Med   78%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ033-
     048>052-058-059-062.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Munroe
NEAR TERM...RWH/TDP
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
648 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062-281100-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-
Macon-
648 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of flash flooding to
our office.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-053-056-057-063>065-068>072-
082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-281100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
648 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

An unstable airmass will combine with moderate deep-layered shear to
produced lines and clusters of thunderstorms this afternoon across
the foothills and piedmont of the Carolinas and Northeast Georgia.
Some of these storms may become organized and reach severe criteria.
The greatest threats will be damaging downburst and outflow winds
along with large hail. Cloud to ground lightning will be quite
frequent in the stronger and longer-lived convective cells.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

Krentz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
305 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

NCZ070-071-SCZ009-271930-
Gaston NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
305 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...
SOUTHEASTERN GASTON AND NORTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
EDT...

At 305 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of York, or 4 miles southeast of Clover, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
York, Tega Cay, Clover, Town Of Lake Wylie, Steele Creek, Carowinds,
Lake Wylie, Newport, Belmont and Southwest Charlotte.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 8090 3507 8091 3506 8090 3495 8123
      3507 8131 3525 8102 3506 8089
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 240DEG 22KT 3505 8118

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
325 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

NCZ071-272000-
Mecklenburg NC-
325 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM EDT...

At 324 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Uptown Charlotte, or over Charlotte Douglas Airport,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include... Charlotte, Freedom Park, Reedy
Creek Park, The Plaza and Charlotte Douglas Airport.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, dime size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3512 8096 3520 8101 3521 8100 3522 8101
      3525 8101 3541 8078 3521 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 240DEG 21KT 3522 8096

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
403 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

NCZ071-072-272030-
Mecklenburg NC-Cabarrus NC-
403 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL CABARRUS AND CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

At 402 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with intense
lightning and torrential rainfall 6 miles southwest of Downtown
Concord, or over Charlotte Motor Speedway, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Locations to be impacted include... Concord, Harrisburg, Charlotte
Motor Speedway, UNC-Charlotte, Reedy Creek Park, Mt Pleasant and
Northeast Charlotte.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 8042 3527 8072 3536 8078 3550 8052
      3550 8050 3533 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 244DEG 25KT 3534 8068

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
438 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

NCZ072-272100-
Cabarrus NC-
438 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 438 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 8 miles east of Downtown Concord, or over Mt
Pleasant, moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Mt Pleasant.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3530 8043 3529 8050 3546 8056 3550 8045
      3550 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 252DEG 19KT 3540 8045

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DEWY ROSE               34.17N 82.95W
09/27/2018                   ELBERT             GA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN ABOUT 2 MILES EAST OF 2015
            NICKVILLE RD, IN DEWY ROSE, GA.

&&

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
635 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

NCZ035-036-056-272300-
Iredell NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
635 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CATAWBA...CENTRAL
ALEXANDER AND NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 635 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Taylorsville, or 5 miles northeast of St. Stephens,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Taylorsville, Conover, Bethlehem, Stony Point, Claremont, Love
Valley, Lookout Shoals Lake, St. Stephens, Lake Hickory and
Hiddenite.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 8075 3568 8120 3583 8133 3604 8104
      3606 8098 3606 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 234DEG 30KT 3581 8120

TDP