Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
736 PM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level ridge dominating the East Coast will
weaken through Friday, allowing a cold front to approach from the
north. The front is expected to stall just north of the area on
Friday. Then the upper ridge will build back over the eastern states
this weekend through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM: The most robust coverage of showers and thunderstorms
early this evening will impact the southwest mountains of western
North Carolina in southerly upslope flow. Elsewhere, coverage should
remain relatively sparse through late evening, with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms slowly dissipating by midnight. Cannot rule
out a few showers overnight, especially in the southwest mountains,
but thunder should dwindle in the stabilizing airmass.

Otherwise, a weakness in the subtropical ridge will remain across
the area through Friday. This will permit weak short waves to cross
the area. The better forcing, instability, and moisture will be
across the mountains - where numerous coverage is expected again
Friday afternoon. However, there is enough instability for isolated
to low end scattered convection elsewhere. Isolated flooding will be
possible across the mountains and foothills with any training echoes
as the locally heavy rainfall redevelops on Friday afternoon. The
chance of organized severe storms is low. However, very high
piedmont DCAPE values will once again mean an isolated damaging wind
gust will be possible. Lows tonight will be a couple of degrees
above normal. Highs Friday will be cooler than Thursday, but still a
couple of degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...A ridge of high pressure will build
across the Mid-Atlantic States over the weekend. The forecast area
will be on the south side of this feature allowing weak easterly
flow to develop across the area. This will lead to a very consistent
temperature pattern with highs near to a little above normal and
overnight lows several degrees above normal. Scattered mainly
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected each day
with the higher chance in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...The mid level ridge will strengthen across
the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley through next week. The ridge will
develop slightly north leaving the forecast area under similar
conditions for the week as the short term period. A little above
normal late summer temperatures are expected with scattered mainly
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A few thunderstorms are flirting with the
KCLT airfield some 10 miles east at issuance time. This activity
could develop westward to the airport on outflows, or additional
activity may arrive from the eastern Upstate, so a TEMPO for TSRA
will be maintained through 02Z. Elsewhere, coverage will ramp down
fairly fast, with VCSH/VCTS lingering mainly from KAVL to KHKY for a
couple of hours. The best chances of any restrictions overnight will
be in the mountain valleys again, but patchy MVFR fog is possible
elsewhere, especially where rain fell. Any restrictions will burn
off by mid-morning with cumulus developing by early afternoon. the
best chance of convection will again be across the mountains for
Friday afternoon, but will carry PROB30 for thunder throughout given
the instability. Expect light S to SW flow throughout away from any
thunderstorms, but KCLT could be variable for a few hours this
evening.

Outlook: Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected
each afternoon Saturday through Tuesday. Areas of fog and low
stratus can also be expected each morning, primarily in the mtn
valleys.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
739 PM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-312345-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
739 PM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will slowly dissipate
through the late evening hours. Coverage will be highest across the
southwest mountains of western North Carolina, where locally very
heavy rainfall could produce some isolated flooding of low-lying
areas. Elsewhere, the main threats for any thunderstorms will be
cloud-to-ground lighting strikes, briefly gusty winds, and locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW FAIRVIEW          35.13N 80.56W
08/30/2018                   UNION              NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTED MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AND MINOR
            DAMAGE TO A TRAILER ON BRENT HAIGLER RD. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

LEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
700 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

NCZ071-072-302330-
Mecklenburg NC-Cabarrus NC-
700 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CABARRUS AND
CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 700 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Uptown Charlotte, or over Reedy Creek Park, moving
north at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
South Charlotte, Northeast Charlotte, East Charlotte, Matthews, Mint
Hill, Harrisburg, Reedy Creek Park, The Plaza, Charlotte Motor
Speedway and Hidden Valley.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 8076 3534 8085 3537 8062 3515 8062
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 178DEG 8KT 3526 8073

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
708 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

SCZ014-302345-
Chester SC-
708 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN CHESTER COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM EDT...

At 708 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Chester, or 6 miles northeast of Carlisle, moving north
at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Leeds.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 8142 3464 8142 3466 8144 3476 8147
      3476 8145 3477 8145 3478 8125 3457 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 178DEG 8KT 3465 8137

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
946 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

NCZ057-072-310215-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
946 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CABARRUS AND
WESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 945 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northeast of Kannapolis, or near Landis, moving north at 15
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Kannapolis, Salisbury, Downtown Concord, China Grove, Spencer,
Landis, Enochville, Granite Quarry, Faith and High Rock Lake.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 8051 3546 8066 3550 8072 3570 8070
      3580 8055 3578 8051 3578 8050 3577 8049
      3578 8048 3577 8048 3573 8045 3572 8038
      3572 8034 3571 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 198DEG 15KT 3555 8059

MOORE

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