Severe Thunderstorm Warning 309, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
241 PM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level ridge dominating the East Coast will
weaken through Friday, allowing a cold front to approach from the
north. The front is expected to stall just north of the area on
Friday. Then the upper ridge will build back over the eastern states
this weekend through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM: A weakness in the subtropical ridge will remain across
the area through Friday. This allows a series of short waves to
cross the area as well. The better forcing, instability, and
moisture will be across the mountains where numerous coverage is
expected. However, there is enough for isolated to low end scattered
convection elsewhere. Isolated flooding will be possible across the
mountains and foothills into this evening with slow moving storms
and potential for training echoes. The chance redevelops on Friday
afternoon. The chance of organized severe storms is low. However,
very high DCAPE values mean an isolated damaging wind gust will be
possible. Lows tonight will be a couple of degrees above normal.
Highs Friday will be cooler than Thursday, but still a couple of
degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...A ridge of high pressure will build
across the Mid-Atlantic States over the weekend. The forecast area
will be on the south side of this feature allowing weak easterly
flow to develop across the area. This will lead to a very consistent
temperature pattern with highs near to a little above normal and
overnight lows several degrees above normal. Scattered mainly
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected each day
with the higher chance in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...The mid level ridge will strengthen across
the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley through next week. The ridge will
develop slightly north leaving the forecast area under similar
conditions for the week as the short term period. A little above
normal late summer temperatures are expected with scattered mainly
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Best chance of convection remains across the
mountains but isolated convection possible elsewhere as evidenced by
the cell that went across KGSP earlier. Therefore, have varying mix
of convection in the TAF for afternoon and early evening. Best
chance of any restrictions will be in the mountain valleys again
overnight, but patchy MVFR fog possible elsewhere. Any restrictions
will burn off by mid-morning with cumulus developing by early
afternoon. Best chance of convection will again be across the
mountains for Friday afternoon, so no mention in the TAFs for now.

Outlook: Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected
each afternoon Saturday through Monday. Areas of fog and low stratus
can also be expected each morning, primarily in the mtn valleys.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   74%     High  89%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  88%     High  97%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
516 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-310930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
516 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop across the region this afternoon into the early evening, with
the highest coverage across the mountains near the Tennessee border.
The main threats will be from cloud-to-ground lightning and locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
245 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

NCZ052-301930-
Haywood NC-
245 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM EDT...

At 245 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Waynesville. This storm was nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Waynesville, Lake Junaluska, Maggie Valley, Smoky
Mountains-Cataloochee and Cove Creek.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 8290 3542 8298 3546 8309 3546 8310
      3547 8314 3566 8312
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 198DEG 3KT 3550 8302

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
247 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

NCZ051-058-062-301930-
Graham NC-Swain NC-Macon NC-
247 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MACON...SOUTH
CENTRAL SWAIN AND EAST CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 247 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Robbinsville, or 6 miles northeast of Nantahala Lake.
This storm was nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Fontana Lake, Luada, Wesser, Almond, Kyle and Nantahala.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3521 8358 3525 8369 3540 8367 3540 8358
      3537 8349
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 198DEG 3KT 3527 8361

MOORE