Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

428 
WWUS52 KGSP 232008
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
408 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

NCC025-097-119-159-232018-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-180723T2030Z/
Cabarrus NC-Iredell NC-Mecklenburg NC-Rowan NC-
408 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS...
SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...MECKLENBURG AND SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

If you observed large hail or wind damage, please report it to the
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free,
1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and
the specific location where it occurred.

LAT...LON 3506 8079 3528 8101 3535 8097 3536 8092
      3537 8095 3537 8096 3572 8076 3546 8056
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 150DEG 15KT 3552 8068 3524 8084 

$$

TDP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad upper low will settle across the Deep South through
Wednesday. This low will remain nearly stationary and support moist
unsettled weather across the region through mid-week, before
weakening ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM: Showers becoming widespread this afternoon along with
scattered thunderstorms. CAM guidance agrees that the cluster of
storms near CAE will move north into the CLT Metro this afternoon
but move north or dissipate this evening. The guidance then
disagrees on whether a second round of convection moves over the
same area. There is good mesoscale and synoptic agreement on the
upper low retrograding slightly or just dropping slowly southward
keeping the trough axis to our west which keeps southerly flow over
the area. However, there is disagreement on just how much moisture
is pumped into the area with many guidance members keeping PW values
below 2 inches with the highest amounts to our east. There were
certainly much lower PW values than expected to start the day on the
observed 12Z RAOBs, and lower than expected upstream values as well.
Therefore, it is questionable just how much precip will fall after
this first round of convection moves through. Have followed the
overall trends in the guidance and have categorical PoP through
early evening then a slow downward trend through the night. Will
issue a Flash Flood Watch for all of our NC counties except for the
Central and Southern Mountains farther west of the moisture
gradient. Will include Cherokee, York, and Chester SC since they are
in the path as well. Given the disagreement in the guidance after
this evening, will just issue the watch through tonight. Later
shifts can reevaluate and adjust the watch as needed based on the
latest guidance.

Shear and instability have been increasing through the day. However,
DCAPE values remain modest. These could increase late this
afternoon, so can't rule out some strong storms and an isolated
severe downburst. These would be most likely along and south of the
I-85 corridor.

Numerous to potentially widespread convective coverage develops
again Tuesday. As mentioned above, there are some questions whether
conditions will be favorable for Watch level flash flooding events
during the day. Certainly isolated heavy rainfall will be possible.
Severe chances should be less, but again, can't be completely ruled
out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Monday: The short-term fcst picks up at 00z on
Wednesday with a persistent upper trof centered over the Southeast
CONUS and steep upper ridging to the east and west of the trof.
Over the next couple of days, heights will gradually rise as the
trof deamplifies and lifts northward. By the end of the period
late Thurs, another broad upper trof will dig down across the Great
Lakes while ridging maintains itself to the east and west. A large
sfc low will be co-located with the upper low over the Southeast
to start the period. On Wed, the sfc low begins to lift northward
as a cold front approaches the fcst area from the NW. The front is
slow to push thru the CWFA, but by Thurs afternoon most of the
guidance has it just SE of the CWFA. In its wake, high pressure
will spread over the area to end the period. As for the sensible
wx, moist SELY low-lvl flow will be in place early Wed. As the day
wears on, and the cold front will gradually push into the CWFA
and the axis of SLY winds will shift farther east. By Thursday
morning, winds will have become light and vrb over most of the
fcst area and NWLY over the higher terrain. In addition, much
of the deeper moisture will have moved south and east of the CWFA.
This should make for a drier Thurs with less cloud cover by the
afternoon. The main threat for the period is still isolated
flooding on Wed with a greater overall threat across the eastern
half of the CWFA. High temperatures will start out about a category
below normal on Wed and warm to near normal for Thursday as cloud
cover dissipates.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 pm Monday: The upper pattern maintains a trough over our
region. Starting Thursday evening with a weak cold front crossing
our area from the NW.  Models show moves slowly across the Midlands
to the coastal plain on Friday and Friday night with drier air
filtering into the region.  The higher Precipitable Water values
will be temporarily suppressed to the coast and Florida to start the
weekend. However, P Wats of around 2 inches for the foothills and
piedmont are forecast to return by Sunday night and remain to start
the week. By Sunday, the winds will shift to a more southerly
direction beginning another wet period in our forecast. On the 500mb
map, the next big trough will cross the upper Plains Saturday night
with the trough axis reaching the Mississippi River by early Monday.
Moist flow out of the Gulf will become well established Monday and
Monday night. CAPE values will be rather low through the medium
range but rising to around 2000 from Elberton to Chester late
Monday. High temperatures around normal Friday and Saturday then a
little below normal under the thick clouds and lower heights
under the trough with low temperatures a little above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Convection quickly developing across the area
this afternoon. Have VCTS and TEMPOs to cover. Will be some MVFR
cigs even outside of the convection as low based cumulus develop as
well. Winds will be easterly through the afternoon into the early
evening, SSE at KAVL. Convection will diminish overnight but low
stratus develops brining restrictions back across the area. Should
see MVFR then IFR overnight. There will be some vsby restrictions as
well. Vsby will improve relatively quickly after daybreak but cigs
only slowly lift to low VFR through the day. Expect convection to
develop again during the afternoon.

Outlook: An active/wet period is expected to continue through at
least Wednesday as a slow moving low pressure system impacts much of
the East. Numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected
during this period with associated lower restrictions. While there
will likely be an afternoon/evening peak in the coverage on most
days, higher-than-normal chances will also exist during the
overnight and morning hours. Drier air works in Thursday and Friday,
resulting in more typical late July diurnal convection chances.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High  86%     High  91%     Med   72%     Med   78%
KGSP       High 100%     High  97%     Med   63%     High  90%
KAVL       High  95%     High  90%     High  83%     High  84%
KHKY       High 100%     High  91%     Med   78%     High  81%
KGMU       High 100%     High  97%     Med   75%     High  81%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  85%     High  96%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ033-035>037-049-
     050-056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for SCZ008-009-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
555 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ003-
007>009-013-014-241000-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Greenville Mountains-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Chester-
555 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will
develop across the area this afternoon through tonight. The main
threat from the showers and storms will be heavy to excessive
rainfall, which could result in localized flash flooding, especially
in urban areas along the I-77 corridor. In addition, a couple of
brief severe thunderstorms will be possible, with damaging winds
being the primary threat. Cloud to ground lightning can occur with
any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...Heavy rain and flooding possible.
..Wednesday...Heavy rain and flooding possible.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001-002-
004>006-010>012-019-241000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Madison-Swain-Haywood-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Greenwood-
555 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop across the
area this afternoon through tonight. While the main threats will be
from cloud to ground lightning and torrential rainfall, localized
excessive rainfall and flash flooding, along with a brief severe
thunderstorm producing damaging winds cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...Heavy rain and flooding possible.
..Wednesday...Heavy rain and flooding possible.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
236 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

SCZ009-231900-
York SC-
236 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN YORK COUNTY UNTIL 300
PM EDT...

At 235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Rock Hill, or near Catawba, moving northwest at 20
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Fort Mill, Tega Cay, Lesslie, Catawba, Carowinds and
Newport.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3490 8088 3487 8088 3484 8087 3482 8090
      3482 8100 3495 8110 3510 8105 3506 8106
      3504 8104 3511 8093 3508 8091 3503 8090
      3501 8091 3499 8089 3492 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 150DEG 18KT 3488 8091

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
244 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

NCZ037-057-072-231915-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Cabarrus NC-
244 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CABARRUS...
SOUTHWESTERN DAVIE AND ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 244 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles north of
Salisbury to 6 miles east of Downtown Concord, and moving northwest
at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Salisbury, Mocksville, West Concord,
China Grove, Spencer, Landis, Enochville and Granite Quarry.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3529 8044 3537 8069 3600 8068 3581 8046
      3579 8048 3577 8045 3574 8046 3572 8039
      3534 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 127DEG 12KT 3573 8048 3539 8049

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
300 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

SCZ012-231930-
Laurens SC-
300 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LAURENS COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 300 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northwest of Newberry, or near Joanna, moving northwest at 15
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Laurens, Clinton, Joanna and Kinards.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 8205 3460 8188 3458 8186 3460 8184
      3457 8180 3456 8175 3457 8175 3456 8173
      3448 8169 3445 8171 3445 8172 3437 8178
      3433 8185
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 148DEG 11KT 3442 8179

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
319 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

NCZ036-037-056-057-071-072-231945-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-Mecklenburg NC-Cabarrus NC-Catawba NC-
319 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN CABARRUS...
SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA...SOUTHWESTERN DAVIE...IREDELL...NORTH CENTRAL
MECKLENBURG AND WESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 319 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of
Mocksville to 7 miles northwest of Kannapolis to 4 miles south of
Downtown Concord, and moving northwest at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Huntersville, Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Statesville, Northeast
Charlotte, West Concord, Cornelius, Mooresville, Davidson and
Harrisburg.

Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 8057 3554 8055 3525 8049 3533 8087
      3553 8095 3553 8094 3555 8098 3570 8105
      3606 8098 3606 8089
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 113DEG 19KT 3584 8065 3558 8070 3534 8059

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

SCZ012-232000-
Laurens SC-
328 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM EDT...

At 328 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Laurens, or near Clinton, moving northwest at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Laurens, Clinton, Gray Court, Joanna, Ora, Hickory Tavern and Enoree.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 8219 3468 8204 3466 8200 3466 8198
      3465 8197 3465 8195 3462 8193 3459 8189
      3460 8188 3458 8186 3460 8184 3451 8173
      3437 8187
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 126DEG 15KT 3449 8188

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
346 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

NCZ036-057-071-072-232015-
Rowan NC-Iredell NC-Mecklenburg NC-Cabarrus NC-
346 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS...
SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 346 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from near Kannapolis to 4
miles east of Uptown Charlotte, and moving north at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Huntersville, Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Central
Charlotte, South Charlotte, Northeast Charlotte, East Charlotte,
Northwest Charlotte and West Concord.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 8078 3526 8099 3536 8094 3536 8092
      3537 8093 3574 8073 3546 8056
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 159DEG 17KT 3546 8062 3521 8077

TDP