Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

321 
WWUS52 KGSP 212246
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
646 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

GAC119-147-257-SCC073-212315-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0243.000000T0000Z-180721T2315Z/
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Hart GA-Oconee SC-
646 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN STEPHENS...NORTHWESTERN HART
AND SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES...

At 646 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Seneca, or 5 miles southeast of Westminster, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Seneca, Westminster, Gumlog, Tugaloo State Park, Fair Play and
Oakway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A few trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned area.
Hail can cause major property damage, especially to vehicles. Seek
shelter inside an interior room.

This storm is moving along the north shore of Lake Hartwell. Get 
away from the water and seek shelter in an interior room in the 
nearest shelter. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be 
struck by lightning.

This storms is also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 8318 3471 8309 3468 8285 3454 8293
      3449 8299 3448 8296 3442 8299 3449 8316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 289DEG 16KT 3460 8304 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

08

474 
WWUS52 KGSP 212301
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
701 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

GAC119-147-257-212311-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0243.000000T0000Z-180721T2315Z/
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Hart GA-
701 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...
SOUTHEASTERN STEPHENS AND NORTHWESTERN HART COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved into 
South Carolina. Therefore the warning has been cancelled for the 
Georgia portion.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for
northeastern Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3448 8304 3450 8305 3450 8307 3451 8307
      3466 8300 3464 8287 3454 8293 3449 8299
      3449 8298 3447 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 291DEG 17KT 3456 8296 

$$

SCC073-212315-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0243.000000T0000Z-180721T2315Z/
Oconee SC-
701 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTY...

At 701 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of
Seneca, or 7 miles northeast of Tugaloo State Park, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Fair Play, Oakway and Seneca. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A few trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned area.
Hail can cause major property damage, especially to vehicles. Seek
shelter inside an interior room.

Lake Hartwell is in the path of this storm. Get away from the water 
and seek shelter in an interior room in the nearest shelter. If you 
can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

This storms is also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3448 8304 3450 8305 3450 8307 3451 8307
      3466 8300 3464 8287 3454 8293 3449 8299
      3449 8298 3447 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 291DEG 17KT 3456 8296 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

08

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
543 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad upper low will settle across the Deep South through early
next week. This low will remain nearly stationary through midweek
and support moist unsettled weather across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 530 PM EDT Saturday: Atmosphere continues to destabilize this
afternoon with a finger of CAPE >3000J/kg stretching from GA up to
the Blue Ridge. Still impressive DCAPE values across the Upstate and
stretching into NC. As of update time, SPC just issued a SVR Tstorm
watch for a big chunk of the area (all our SC and GA counties and a
few NC). Have updated pops for current radar trends and increased
with a trend east over the next few hours. Temperatures still look
good at this time.

Otherwise, water vapor imagery and RAP heights placed the 500 mb
closed low center near the IL/IN/MI border this afternoon, with
drier mid-level air wrapping around the associated trough and across
the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Very good insolation
developed late this morning into this afternoon behind the departing
daybreak rain areas, and LAPS surface based CAPE values have
gradually returned to 1500 to 2500 J/kg across northeast GA and the
western Upstate. RAP and NAM profiles are very unstable this
afternoon, especially across our southern parts, where sbCAPE values
reach some 3000 to 4000 J/kg. The convection-allowing models have
not been terribly consistent on placement or timing, but the general
consensus is that enough triggering will take place as vorticity
lobes round the trough axis to generate scattered to numerous
thunderstorms later this afternoon and this evening. These
thunderstorms will grow in an enviroment with 7+ deg C/km mid-level
lapse rates and approximately 30 to 35 kt of sfc-6 km bulk shear.
This should be sufficient to warrant a Slight risk of severe
thunderstorms across our southern half, with a Marginal risk across
the northern part. Rotating updrafts will support mainly a damaging
wind and large hail threat. The consensus HRRR/NAMnest solution has
mountain triggering overcoming a weak cap circa 19Z, with activity
then developing and spreading quickly east of the mountains through
evening, moving east of the I-77 corridor by midnight. PoPs will
generally follow this trend.

Otherwise, the vertically stacked low pressure system will slowly
pivot southward toward the Ohio River Valley later tonight through
Sunday. Q-vector divergence will continue east of the deepening
trough axis mainly along the I-40 corridor. Reasonably steep 6 to
6.5 deg C/km lapse rates continue on Sunday east of the upper
trough. This will warrant at scattered south to numerous north
coverage again, with mainly a diurnal focus Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures should be at least a category below climo Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday: Active weather is likely to continue for
the period from Sunday night through Tuesday. The synoptic scale
feature of interest acrs the eastern CONUS will be the slowly
filling and southward sinking closed upper low.  With the mean
southerly flow atop the region deepening on Monday, expect an influx
of higher PWAT values leading to numerous if not widespread
diurnally enhanced deep convection with a heavy rain possibility
especially from the Blue Ridge to the piedmont. Widespread clouds
and showers should aid in max temperatures topping out around 5 deg
F below climo. It does not look like the sensible wx will change
very much through Tuesday, lingering rich PWAT values and a broad
SSEly flow feeding moisture into the Southern Appalachians. Expect
another day of deep convection becoming numerous to widespread with
the ongoing chance of locally excessive rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM Saturday: A weakening ulvl trof will linger over the
region thru the first half of the ext range before becoming sheared
out Fri into Sat. This synoptic scenario is well agreed upon by the
op models with the GFS holding onto a pocket of stronger vort energy
a little longer into Fri. At the sfc...broad low pressure will allow
for continued e/ly Atl moist flux early Wed before the deep layered
flow calms and becomes sw/ly in the lower levels Wed night thru the
period. This will lower any flooding potential as sustained mech lift
is reduced...however PWAT values will remain quite high allowing for
high rainfall rates associated with afternoon pulse convec. With
high cloud cover and decent coverage of precip...max temps will
remain a cat or so below normal with normal levels likely returning
Fri/Sat. Mins will remain a little abv normal each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Convection is off to a very slow start this
afternoon as a weak cap remains in place in the profiles. Triggering
should force convection earliest over the mountains around 19Z, with
coverage growing eastward through the late afternoon and evening
hours. All locations will see TEMPO TSRA at some point in the 20Z to
22Z period, with gusts added given the potential for strong
updrafts/downdrafts. Considering the near surface moisture, heating
is producing some MVFR level clouds this afternoon in southwest
parts, but these should rise quickly to VFR levels with any
additional restrictions confined to thunderstorms. Expect mainly
southwest winds, with low end gusts at times, and a shift to NW flow
at KAVL late. Showers should return from KAVL to KHKY a bit earlier
on Sunday given the trough axis setting up to the west.

Outlook: An active/wet period is expected to continue from late
Sunday through the middle part of next week as a slow-moving storm
system impacts much of the East. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected during this period. While there will likely be an
afternoon/evening peak in coverage on most days, higher-than-normal
chances will also exist during the overnight and morning hours.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  89%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High  98%     High  94%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Low   49%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  98%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  96%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/TDP
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
550 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ068>070-507>510-SCZ001>014-019-222200-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Gaston-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union-Chester-Greenwood-
550 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Thunderstorms will continue to develop and expand in coverage across
the region into this evening. Some of these storms may become
severe. The most likely hazards will be damaging winds, large hail,
frequent lightning, and minor flooding from heavy rainfall. An
isolated tornado will also be possible, mainly east of the Blue
Ridge.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...Heavy rain possible. A persistent moist southeasterly
flow will increase the risk for heavy rainfall across the area
starting late Monday and continuing through Wednesday.
..Tuesday...Heavy rain possible.
..Wednesday...Heavy rain possible.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-071-072-082-501>506-222200-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
550 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will continue to develop and expand in coverage across
the region into this evening. Some of these storms may become
severe. The most likely hazards will be damaging winds, large hail,
frequent lightning, and minor flooding from heavy rainfall. An
isolated tornado will also be possible, mainly east of the Blue
Ridge.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...Heavy rain possible. A persistent moist southeasterly
flow will increase the risk for heavy rainfall across the area
starting late Monday and continuing through Wednesday.
..Tuesday...Heavy rain possible.
..Wednesday...Heavy rain possible.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
455 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

NCZ068-508-212130-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-
455 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND
NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 455 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Rutherfordton, moving east at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Bostic, Polkville, Sunshine, Thermal City and Union Mills.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 8204 3552 8202 3554 8164 3532 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 276DEG 27KT 3546 8194

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
513 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

NCZ065-507>510-212145-
Greater Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
513 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 512 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Columbus, or near Bat Cave, moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave, Green Hill, Mill Spring,
Edneyville, Lake Adger and Shingle Hollow.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 8228 3546 8225 3548 8224 3546 8197
      3521 8209 3535 8238 3548 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 287DEG 18KT 3540 8228

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
546 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

NCZ065-507>510-212215-
Greater Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
546 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
EDT...

At 545 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Columbus, or near Bat Cave, moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Columbus, Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave, Gerton, Edneyville, Lake
Adger, Mill Spring and Dana.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph, nickel size hail and torrential rainfall
rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for
western North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3549 8230 3546 8225 3548 8224 3545 8209
      3524 8220 3538 8244 3547 8240 3546 8237
      3548 8237 3549 8236
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 291DEG 19KT 3541 8227

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
609 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

GAZ018-026-SCZ001-004-212245-
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
609 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...CENTRAL
STEPHENS AND SOUTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 609 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Toccoa, moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Westminster, Gumlog, Tugaloo State Park and Oakway.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for
northeastern Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3461 8337 3475 8331 3468 8298 3446 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 291DEG 16KT 3464 8323

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
612 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             1 ENE MORGANTON         35.75N 81.68W
07/21/2018  E1.00 INCH       BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN
            MORGANTON.

&&

LEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
619 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             DREXEL                  35.75N 81.61W
07/21/2018  E1.00 INCH       BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER (1.00 IN) SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON ET CAMP RD
            NEAR DREXEL

&&

LEC