Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
246 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through Monday as
the region remains in a warm and humid airmass. A weak cold front
will drop into the forecast area early next week, bringing more
seasonable temperatures Tuesday. A passing trough will increase
chances for showers and storms Wednesday, with hot weather returning
to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230pm EDT Sunday: Stationary or slowly sagging front lies
along north extent of surface high over the Gulf of Mexico/FL, with
lee trough lifting northeastward. Winds veer to northwesterly
and weaken in vicinity of front as it sags southward into part
of the area. 850mb winds also weaken tonight with todays
slightly gusty westerlies ending near sunset, and less wind on
Monday (except near thunderstorms). Model soundings have
moderate levels of instability with some capping and limited
forcing, with region between upper waves and fairly flat mid-
level flow. With help from initiation over higher terrain, some
afternoon thunderstorms approaching severe limits are possible
today, declining after sunset. CAMs are somewhat variable in
coverage, but have had a tendency to produce the strongest
updrafts to the east, but there is some chance for showers most
locations this afternoon.

Potentially more significant convection will occur on Tuesday when
SPC has the area in a marginal risk category with some prospect for
an upgrade to slight.  NAM and extended HRRR have shown an MCS with
an MCV structure propagating along frontal zone from IL to TN,
reaching the GSP area Monday afternoon.  Timing is favorable for
continuing any severe convection with this feature.  If this feature
becomes sufficiently organized, more wide spread severe winds
may be possible.

Temperatures will remain 5 or so degrees above seasonal normals as
weak sagging front does little to change the air mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday: A potent packet of energy will be crossing
our forecast area (FA) Monday evening, all still tied into the NWLY
flow aloft. Meanwhile the meandering weak surface front will settle
into our southern forecast area (FA) Monday night, or just south by
Tuesday morning. Depending on how the convection works out earlier,
our trend is to decrease POPS from the west and north through Monday
night, with some low end chance in our south by daybreak Tuesday.

Tuesday appears to be an odd weather day with a surface wedge-like
configuration, while moisture tries to return to our southern and
western areas particularly on a developing east to southeast flow.
POPS will go back up, actually to likely in the afternoon, over our
east facing slopes. We have tried to have a minimum in POPS over our
northeast FA,

We then draw POPS back to slight chance in the mountains Tuesday
night, although some lingering light rain or drizzle might still be
in the cards for the far south. We will leave that out for now.

Another shot of energy will be approaching Wednesday. Although the
solutions from the various deterministic models vary on the
strength, the trend remains. We will follow with taking POPS back up
to likely in our western FA Wednesday afternoon, and chance POPS
elsewhere at this time.

Temperatures will be knocked back with the clouds and potential
precipitation, but fairly uniform with the guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 pm Sunday: Upper trough that will be impacting the region
during the short term is expected to shift east of the forecast area
Wed night/early Thursday, allowing the strengthening subtropical
ridge to build into eastern Conus from mid-to-late week. The
forecast area should be far enough displaced from the axis of the
ridge that sufficient instability and weak capping are expected to
support diurnal convection each day through the period. The main
story will be the persistent heat, as max temps in the mid-90s and
lows in the lower-to-mid 70s are expected across much of the
Piedmont and foothills through the period (around 90 in the mtn
valleys), with maximum heat indices likely reaching the 98-102 range
east of the mtns each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Increasing clouds this afternoon with
ceilings near 5000 ft, with showers and thunderstorms possible until
sunset.  Hi-res models are somewhat variable in placement and
coverage of convection today, but tend to have more coverage in
eastern areas, including KCLT and KHKY.  Winds are a little gusty
this afternoon as 850mb winds are still 15 to 20kts, but will relax
near sunset  Winds are expected to veer to become more northwesterly
overnight as lee trough moves eastward and a week front sags into
the area.  More showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday
afternoon as a low-level disturbance/MCV approaches the region.  Fog
is expected to be limited to mountain valleys Monday morning, with
only KAVL being worthy of mention at this point.

Outlook: A slow-moving or stalled front will bring better chances
for convection starting Monday and continuing through the week.
Patchy morning fog and/or low stratus may increase as well in
mountain valleys and/or locations with wet ground.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  87%     High  91%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High  91%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
525 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-250930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
525 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today and tonight.
Cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and torrential rainfall will
be possible with any of these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Wimberley

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